Soybeans Update

[DaveT]

The weekly range broke out to the downsidethis summer, as waether threats proved unfounded, and seasonal pressure took over.

Where is the bottom?

We printed a reversal bar in September, and Corn and Wheat have gained in relative strength recently.

Ofcourse, we may have to wait until next year at least for any significant move in the Beans - unless Brazil has a crop problem in Ja-march time frame.

 

[hornblower]

not a lot of posts on this thread
soybeans seem ready to go up again
and wheat
there may be a trade on both later in the week

 

[TWI]

Yes, after the recent collapse from the highs I am thinking that it may find a bid. Problem with weather markets is that you can be right only until the next forecast.
One thing is clear the supply/demand is reasonably tight for Soy so if it can catch the bid I believe we can easilly head back to the highs.

 

[croker]

Does anyone trade wheat? It's flying up at the moment. I've drawn a trendline and am waiting for a pullback to enter but it's not even getting close...its getting further away!

 

[risingeagle]

Wheat and beans

Well, we are trading wheat since 2002 but I have never seen something like this. Today it closed at 8.90 while Soybeans are around 9.05. So I expect that wheat overtakes beans on Wednesday or Thursday. That will f**k the CBOT people...gg

I don't see a reasonable limit currently, since Australia will fail and we will plainly run out of wheat this year. We have to reach a price where the demand is really reduced.

So happy bidding,

Mike

 

[trader_dante]

Does anyone trade wheat? It's flying up at the moment. I've drawn a trendline and am waiting for a pullback to enter but it's not even getting close...its getting further away!

Exactly the same here. It just keeps going up...how long can this relentless rise go on for?

 

[Hoggums]

Exactly the same here. It just keeps going up...how long can this relentless rise go on for?

Probably until next year. The farmers will plant more to make the most of higher prices - but the crops won't be harvestable until next year.

 

[risingeagle]

I think there are two points to consider:

1. The USDA always tries to keep everyone happy and has produced various overconfident reports over the last years. But they internally surely can add up the figures. And those figures plainly show that it will come very close to a big 0 given the current price/demand. So the reports must now become more honest and the market will move the price into such dimensions that the demand will be redruced. But all those countries e.g. India buy NOW since they can't wait any longer. They need wheat now! I mean, when it was like 4.50 or 5.00 they all sat back and wanted to wait for the price to come down to 3.50 again. But this is not what it did. So now they have to pay today's prices...

So I see it going to at least 500$ per ton, especially given the weak Dollar.

2. Planting new crops is not necessarily the answer. Americans don't want to hear about global warming, many believe that this year was extreme and the next will solve all our problems. I disagree! This planet has a temperature and when I have a temperature, I can't perform either. So I think we have to prepare ourselves for conditions like this year.

Happy bidding,

Mike