Something for the weekend

TBS

Well-known member
Thoughts on this one?

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Helenqu

Established member
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Well as I see it this "could" be part of an inverse H&S or an Asc Tri with a target of 1300. It went back to retest the neckline at 700ish and now that co-incides with the uptrend line and they rather neatly meet at 700. It's got itself mired up in a lot of congestion/consolidation which could be a mark that it's going to rocket up OR that it's toppy. Most likely i think is consolidation until the price reaches the uptrend line at 700 again then off and up. But if the 700 level goes then it's a short.


You will tell us won't you? I guess this is one of the ones for the course today. Feel lost without candles and CCI though, not enough information :)
 

Mr. Charts

Legendary member
Cup and handle. The time to go long was on the ascending side of the handle as it broke above handle base resistance around 570.
 

esiotrot

Active member
Agree with Mr. C - up to a point

The Cup and Handle is confirmed on the breakout above ~640 with a target of 1180 A good chance of this making the target with the RHS of the cup higher than the LHS

The triangle - kindly drawn by Helen - gives a target of 1120. This appears to be part of the general up trend and may not be significant. The current price is supported by the upper t/l on the triangle (just)

The longer term demand t/l is still intact but I would be concerned in around 3 time periods if the short term down trend nears this trendline.

If I had gone long at 640 my stop loss would be now 800 - the last accepted low - so I am definitely worried.
 

Mr. Charts

Legendary member
esiotrot,
Yes, the text book BO is as you say, however,you need to stay ahead of the crowd and look for clues of the impending trade the market might offer. The immediate past trading range was clearly broken at the level I mentioned so you go long with a stop back in the trading range.
That means:
(a) your stop is much closer producing far less risk
(b) your profit potential is much greater - I'd rather be long at 570 than 700
(c) look at how momentum accelerated from the BO at 570 - why?- because others saw the BO and jumped on it.
(d) had the rise stopped at the 640 you mention, (or the 700 which is my view of the C&H BO), producing a double top, your approach would have given rise to at least a small loss, whereas mine would have already produced a handsome profit.
Only my views, of course, but that's the way I trade and everyone to their own methods ;-)
 

jpwone

Well-known member
Volume might have been useful for this one as it could have helped to interpret the strength of the quick upward move :D

The actual is moving down in an upward trending channel (bottom part is trend line in Helens post). I would be looking for support on the bottom part of the channel, probably in the 720-750 range. If this failed I would have a downside target of 500 (+ or - 20).

So, I would go for a small stake long around the 730 level. If this was confirmed then I would add. I would run a firm stoploss at 690 with a dicretional stoploss at 700 to 710.

If the 700 level failed I would be looking to short.

As I would be looking for it to test 730 it might even be worth putting in a short at the current 800 level. This would maximise possible return if my interpretation was correct and could be run with a tight stop and a trailing stop added if the down move coninues.

John
 
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options

Senior member
I love this game, (trading) everyone sees the same picture and has a different view, different trade set up.

Good idea TBS. Post a chart with no name so people are not swayed by who/what it is.

As it stands the chart is pure guesswork and nothing else. Add the volume bars to the chart and you may begin to get a clearer picture.

Anyway, fwiw.

The long entry position was at 100 on the second leg of the double bottom if you had been following this chart and were brave enough, stop at 50 for a gamble play.
That's the hindsight bit out of the way.

As it is now. I would short this with a stop of 855 and a first target of 750 then a target of 700. My reason being that it keeps running into congestion and failed 5 times to reach, breach and hold the 900. however, if it starts to turn up from here on ample volume, then a long would be in order to hopefully push through the 900at the 6th attempt.
This is how I read itand would trade it , others will of course see it differently.

Interesting to see the follow up TBS.
 

Helenqu

Established member
I wouldn't dream of going anywhere near this for a trade, too cluttered and uncertain.

AKA "The Wimp " :)
 

options

Senior member
Lol. TBS.
Maybe I should stick to trading the aussie markets lol.

But it proves a point that every picture tells a different story to every viewer.

What a good training excerise though, (a bit like the spot the ball competition)
Maybe it could be taken on board as a competition with the nearest to the projected price in 5/10/30 days time sort of thing.

In all truth I thought it was from the Canadian dollar, and I've just started putting out a line of shorts.
 

Helenqu

Established member
Well I hope my reading of it was wrong! Makes me glad all the families real cash is out of the market :)
 

jpwone

Well-known member
Interesting that the responses where generally of a 'how I would trade it ' and not of a 'where it will be' nature.

Hopefully this has illustrated that we are not in the forecasting business. You do not need to know where an instrument is going to trade it. You need a plan which covers most reasonable scenarios (and a stoploss which covers the unreasonable/unexpected ones) and a way of minimising loss if you get it wrong whilst attempting to maximise returns if you get it right.

Thanks TBS. A useful exercise. Any intentions of making it a regular contribution?

John
 

Mr. Charts

Legendary member
True, jpwone.
I would make no prediction as to where that instrument is going because I don't know and cannot see any really strong signs.
Personally I only trade those situations where the evidence and my experience tell me there is at least an 80% probability of success.
Also I want rather more than a chart before I take a trade. I want my other non-chart pre-indicators kicking in. Otherwise you're just one of the crowd and have no edge.
 

robq

Active member
I suppose the ability to interpret a chart like this is reflection of one's experience. I stared in the mirror for a while!
 

DaveJB

Experienced member
Err,
I'd short it - but as I figured the link TBS gave to the real chart is a FTSE chart that (as far as I see it) doesn't match... so I'm feeling a bit thick here now! Was I supposed to change date range or period or something? I'd short, watch for 750 going - if it didn't go then I'd feel grumpy, if it did go then I'd feel happy.
(If it went sideways I'd check Snow White out instead... sorry, I thought I'd best say it before anyone else did).
Or is it back to front?
Dave
 
 
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