Solid ECN | Professional Market Analysis | *Video*

[SOLIDECN]

EURUSD continues to achieve gains​

The EURUSD pair provided more bullish bias to approach 1.0700 barrier, waiting for more rise to test 1.0745 level that represents our next main target, organized inside the bullish channel that supports the chances of surpassing the mentioned level and achieve more gains on the intraday and short term basis. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend for the upcoming period supported by the EMA50, noting that breaking 1.0595 might press on the price to test the key support 1.0515 before any new attempt to rise.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0590 support and 1.0750 resistance.​

 

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GBPUSD Awaits more Rise​

The GBPUSD pair fluctuates with slight negativity now, affected by stochastic negativity, while the EMA50 continues to support the bullish wave, organized inside the bullish channels that appear on the chart, waiting to resume the bullish bias to visit 1.2550 as a next target. Therefore, we should note that breaking 1.2325 will stop the positive scenario and press on the price to start intraday bearish correction.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.2300 support and 1.2490 resistance.​

 

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USDJPY Loses Momentum​

The USDJPY pair shows some slight bullish bias to fluctuate around 135.50 level, noticing that stochastic loses its positive momentum clearly, waiting to motivate the price to resume the expected bearish trend for the upcoming period, which its next targets located at 134.25 followed by 133. The EMA50 supports the expected decline, reminding you that it is important to hold below 136.50 to achieve the suggested targets.

The expected trading range for today is between 134.50 support and 136.30 resistance.​

 

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AUDUSD - Australian labor market continues to recover​

The overall unemployment rate in Australia remained at 3.4%, while employment increased by 64.0K jobs after rising by 43.1K a month earlier, and total employment reached 13.752M people. Seasonally adjusted, the share of the economically active population increased to 66.8% from 66.5% a month earlier, and the ratio of employed to the country's total population increased to 64.5%. The unemployed increased by only 200 people, while the youth unemployment rate fell to 7.7%.

On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument is moving in an ascending channel and, after reaching the resistance line, is preparing to break it. Technical indicators maintain a strengthening buy signal.

Resistance levels: 0.6895, 0.7068 | Support levels: 0.6745, 0.6586​

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USDCAD - Growth within the local ascending corridor

The quotations were practically not affected by the report of Statistics Canada: in October, the volume of production grew by 2.8% to 72.6B Canadian dollars, and the oil industry (12.7%) and the food industry (2.9%) stand out among the leaders of the sector and the chemical industry (4.9%), while in the automotive industry (–3.2%) and mechanical engineering (–1.7%), a negative trend is observed. According to experts, growth in these sectors should not be expected soon, as there is a serious shortage of materials and microchips, which also reduced production and decreased exports of cars and spare parts by 1.8%.

On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument moves within the local ascending corridor. Technical indicators signal further growth.

Resistance levels: 1.37, 1.39 | Support levels: 1.354, 1.338​

 

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FTSE 100 - British stock market continues its downward correction

At the moment, the situation in the economy comes to the fore, as well as the actions of the Bank of England, which yesterday once again raised the interest rate by 50 basis points, bringing it to 3.50%. Each increase in value entails an increase in the cost of loans, which most companies in the technology sector cannot do without. The decision of the regulator this time was not unanimous: 2 out of 9 members of the board were in favor of maintaining the indicator at the current level. If the number of opponents of the interest rate increase grows, the Bank of England may revise its monetary policy.

On the daily chart of the asset, the index quotes are completing corrective growth as part of the next wave of the Expanding Formation global pattern and are reversing downwards. Technical indicators remain in the state of purchase signal that is starting to weaken.

Support levels: 7400, 7270 | Resistance levels: 7500, 7630​

 

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EURUSD under the negative pressure​

The EURUSD pair traded negatively in the previous sessions to break the bullish channel’s support line and settles below it, but we notice that the EMA50 forms good support to protect the price from suffering more losses, accompanied by witnessing positive signals through stochastic, which supports the chances of regaining the bullish trend again. Therefore, we believe that the chances valid to trade positively today, and the targets begin by surpassing 1.0650 to ease the mission of heading towards 1.0745, noting that breaking 1.0580 will stop the expected rise and press on the price to test 1.0515 direct.



The expected trading range for today is between 1.0540 support and 1.0710 resistance.​

 

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BTCUSD - US Federal Reserve decisions continue to put pressure on the position of "digital gold"

Monetary factors are still the main drivers of the quotes movement. The initial positive dynamics were associated with the release of November statistics on US inflation, which recorded a slowdown in consumer price growth in the country for the second month in a row and strengthened investors' hopes that the US Federal Reserve would soften its "hawkish" rhetoric. Still, the results of the regulator's meeting on Wednesday disappointed the market. Officials expectedly adjusted the rate of the interest rate hike from 75.0 bps to 50.0 bps to 4.50% but said that the problem of high inflation has not yet been resolved, and monetary tightening should be continued. At the same time, experts in the department predicted a decrease in the indicator no earlier than 2024. Similar statements were made by representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England, putting even more pressure on digital assets.

The trading instrument is at 16750 and may continue to decline around the November lows at 15700, 15000 (Murrey [4/8]). The key "bullish" seems to be the resistance zone 17500 – 17830 (Murrey [6/8], Fibonacci correction 23.6%). If it is broken, quotes may rise to 19100 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%) and 20000 (Murrey [8] /8], Fibonacci retracement 50.0%).

Resistance levels: 17830, 19100, 20000 | Support levels: 15700, 15000, 13750​

 

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ETHUSD - Technical analysis

Since the end of last month, the quotes have been moving in the main sideways range of 1325.00–1090.00. The cryptocurrency market is uncertain, as fears of further negative consequences of the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange are holding back the start of corrective growth. However, in the short term, it will become possible if the consolidation above 1250.00 (Murrey level [2/8], the middle line of Bollinger bands) to the levels 1325.00 or 1500.00 (Murrey level [4/8], the upper limit of the long-term downward channel). The key "bearish" level is 1090.00, consolidation below, which will give the prospect of further decline to 1000.00 (Murrey level [0/8]), 875.00 (Murrey level [–1/8]).

Resistance levels: 1250, 1325, 1500 | Support levels: 1090, 1000, 875​

 

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NZDUSD - economic activity slows down in New Zealand

In recent weeks, macroeconomic data from New Zealand suggest a significant slowdown in economic activity, with Westpac's Q4 domestic consumer sentiment index at 75.6 points, down from Q3 87.6. Business confidence from Australia and New Zealand banking group ANZ fell in December to –70.2 points from –57.1 points a month earlier, which was the lowest on record since 1998, while the business activity indicator from the National Bank of New Zealand (NBNZ) accelerated the fall to –25.6% from –13.7% before.

The trading instrument is moving within a corrective uptrend with a local decline.

Resistance levels: 0.639, 0.651 | Support levels: 0.626, 0.613​

 

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EURUSD - Low gas price in the EU supports the euro

Thus, according to data from the TTF exchange, the price for gas contracts with delivery in February is now 1120.0 dollars per 1.0K cubic meters, which was last observed in June, when the Nord Stream gas pipeline maintained maximum pumping levels. The current low quotations provide an opportunity for countries in the region to conclude long-term deals for supplies in the spring, as the storage facilities are almost full now. Meanwhile, in November, the German producer price index lost 3.9%, which led to a slowdown in growth to 28.2% YoY from 34.5% earlier.

On the daily chart, the trading instrument continues its corrective growth and confidently holds in the local ascending corridor. Technical indicators point to continued growth.

Resistance levels: 1.0675, 1.09 | Support levels: 1.0525, 1.032

 

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USDJPY - Rhetoric of representatives of the Bank of Japan is a catalyst for the growth of the yen

Quotes of USD/JPY are correcting at 132.21. The yen added 4.2% in yesterday's trading, reacting to the results of the Bank of Japan meeting, at which the interest rate was kept at the same level of -0.10%, but the policy of controlling the yield curve of 10-year government bonds was adjusted: previously it was allowed to deviate by 25 basis points either way from the target level of 0.00%, and now changes by 50 basis points become possible.

In addition, the regulator announced a significant increase in the volume of purchases of government bonds in unlimited volumes, expanding the range of purchased instruments: in addition to traditional 10-year bonds, the Bank of Japan now intends to buy assets with more global maturities. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said he sees the move as an opportunity to stave off the negative effects on the economy from high inflation caused by higher import prices due to the depreciation of the yen. Thus, the Bank of Japan expects that after the appreciation of the national currency, the inflationary impact will begin to decrease.



On the daily chart of the asset, the USDJPY pair is trading in a local downtrend, reaching the support line near the low of August 2. Technical indicators still hold the sell signal, which has recently intensified.

Support levels: 131.5, 127.2 | Resistance levels: 133.5, 137​

 

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S&P 500 - Bond growth puts pressure on stock indexes again​

The American stock market today does not demonstrate single dynamics and is again subject to fluctuations due to the news of the corporate segment. Thus, it became known that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has charged the industrial group Honeywell International Inc. with participating in corruption schemes in Brazil and Algeria, which may force investors to reconsider their attitude to a rather promising company demonstrating stable revenue growth throughout the year. Shares of the entertainment company The Walt Disney Co. once again reached the minimum of the year against the background of news that the box office of the new film "Avatar: The Way of Water" did not meet expectations, making much less than preliminary forecasts.

On the daily chart, the index quotes continued the local corrective trend, confidently consolidating below the support line of the ascending channel. Technical indicators have already reversed and issued a sell signal.

Support levels: 3780, 3640 | Resistance levels: 3890, 4050​

 

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EURUSD breaches the minor resistance​

The EURUSD pair begins today with new positivity to breach the resistance that appears on the chart and attempts to hold above it, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bullish trend, opening the way to head towards our waited target at 1.0745. The EMA50 and stochastic provide positive signals that support the expected rise, which will remain valid conditioned by the price stability above 1.0580.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0570 support and 1.0745 resistance.​

 

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Breaking: CAD Strengthens slightly after CPI data​

• Canada’s annual inflation fell slightly to 6.8% YoY in November from 6.9% in October, above market expectations of 6.6%.​
• Today's report pointed to slowest pace of price growth since March. Consumer costs rose at a slower pace for transportation (8.5% vs 9.5% in October), largely due to a slower rise in gasoline prices (13.7% vs 17.8%) as the reopening of refineries in the western United States drove fuel prices in British Columbia and Alberta to ease. On a monthly basis, Canadian consumer prices rose by 0.1% in November, slowing from a 0.7% gain in the prior month.​

Core consumer prices in Canada remain unchanged at 5.8 % in November.

Mortgage interest costs also moved higher, nevertheless markets perceived today's report as hawkish which makes it more likely the BoC will raise rates next month. Current pricing is near 50/50.

USDCAD fell slightly after CPI release and is approaching 1.3600 support.​

 

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NZDUSD Faces Solid Support​

The NZDUSD pair touched 0.6275 level and found solid support there, to show some bullish bias and retest the broken neckline of the head and shoulders’ pattern that appears on the chart, waiting to resume the negative trades to break the mentioned level and head towards 0.6130 as a next target. Therefore, the bearish trend scenario will remain valid for the upcoming period unless breaching 0.6385 and holding above it.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6250 support and 0.6365 resistance​

 

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis​

The GBPUSD pair tests 1.2135 level and still below it, and the contradiction between the technical indicators still valid, to continue with our neutrality until the price confirms its situation according to the mentioned level followed by detecting its next destination clearly.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.2050 support and 1.2230 resistance.​

 

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ADAUSD - Under pressure from general market negative factors​

Last week, the US regulator confirmed the need to continue raising the interest rate and keep it at high levels until at least 2024: investors' expectations for softening hawkish rhetoric did not materialize, and the dollar resumed strengthening against alternative assets. The consequences of the cessation of FTX are expressed, first of all, in the loss of confidence on the part of traders: by the middle of this month, 200.0K BTC worth about 3.4B dollars were withdrawn from the market, not counting other tokens, and soon this process is more likely everything will continue. Also, many cryptocurrency companies associated with the platform are experiencing problems: for example, market maker Auros announced restructuring its activities due to the company losing access to 20.0M dollars blocked on the bankrupt crypto exchange. According to Coinbase's Cryptocurrency Market Outlook 2023 report, market conditions will continue to push investors to leave altcoins for safer currencies – BTC and ETH, and the price of ADA will remain under pressure in the medium term.

The trading instrument is moving within the long-term downward channel. Consolidation of the price below 0.2441 (Murrey levels [2/8]) will give the prospect of further decline to 0.2197 (Murrey levels [1/8]) and 0.1953 (Murrey levels [0/8]). The key "bullish" seems to be 0.2929 (Murrey levels [4/8], middle line of Bollinger bands). Its breakout will give the prospect of further growth to 0.3173 (Murrey levels [5/8]) and 0.3418 (Murrey levels [6/8], the upper limit of the downward channel).

Resistance levels: 0.2929, 0.3173, 0.3418 | Support levels: 0.2441, 0.2197, 0.1953​

 

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Crude Oil - Oil reserves in the USA have sharply decreased again​

According to October statistics, the USA holds the lead with 11.971M barrels of oil, Saudi Arabia is in second place with 10.957M barrels, and Russia is in third place, which has significantly reduced production levels, which amounted to 10.66M barrels and is still higher than the 10.599M barrels recorded in August. During the period from January to October, energy production in the Russian Federation managed to increase by 2.4% from last year's figure to 443.2M barrels.

At the same time, oil reserves in the US strategic reserve continue to decline rapidly: last week the indicator adjusted by -3.6M barrels, amounting to 378.6M barrels, which is the lowest value since 1983. In addition, the US Department of Energy announced that in order to replenish the volumes put on the market, the purchase of energy will begin, and the first batch of 3.0M barrels will be delivered in February 2023.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is trading within a descending corridor, being in the middle of the range. Technical indicators hold the sell signal, which has weakened somewhat recently

Support levels: 81.20, 75.80 | Resistance levels: 84.6, 89.4​

 

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AUDUSD - US economy grew by 3.2% in the third quarter​

Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published the minutes of a meeting on monetary policy, in which the head of the department, Philip Lowe, explained why the interest rate was raised not by 50.0 basis points but by 25.0 basis points. Officials looked at two priorities, cost control and household resilience, and concluded that despite high inflation, increasing the rate by 50.0 basis points was inappropriate as it would create additional credit pressure on households.

The key event last night was the data on US gross domestic product (GDP): Q3 figure rose by 3.2% after rising by 2.9% earlier. The upward trend was supported by a stable volume of business investment and an increase in consumer spending due to funds accumulated during the coronavirus epidemic. Against this background, the national currency regained some lost positions and consolidated above 104.000 in the USD Index. Also, statistics on initial jobless claims were released: the value, as predicted, was worse than the previous one, showing 216.0K claims against 214.0K a week earlier.

On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument is moving below the support line of the local rising channel. Technical indicators are ready to reverse and give a signal to start selling.

Resistance levels: 0.675, 0.688 | Support levels: 0.66, 0.643
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