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AUDUSD - Key parameters of the Australian economy are declining

Thus, the index of manufacturing activity from AIG in November fell to 44.7 points from 49.6 points earlier, and the Manufacturing PMI amounted to 51.3 points, which is lower than 52.7 points earlier. The volume of investments also continues to decline: investments in production equipment in the third quarter lost 1.6%, and capital investments of individuals decreased by 0.6%. Even more critical is the 0.2% decline in retail sales in November after a positive 0.6% trend in October, which reflects a drop in buying activity due to rising prices.

On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument is moving within a downward channel and is preparing to break the range resistance line, and the technical indicators keep a buy signal.

Resistance levels: 0.6855, 0.705 | Support levels: 0.671, 0.653​

 

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USDCHF - Dollar weakness does not allow the pair to recover

Yesterday in Switzerland, the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) published data on the volume of retail sales, which for the first time since the beginning of the summer, fell by 2.5% after rising by 2.6% in September. Inflation remained at 3.0% YoY, and there was no monthly change in the indicator, although analysts predicted its increase by 0.1%. The information portal procure.ch published a monthly index of business activity, which fell to 53.9 points in November from 54.9 points a month earlier, thus continuing the negative dynamics that began in April.

On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument has slowed down the decline and is gaining new strength to continue the trend, and the technical indicators maintain a sell signal.

Resistance levels: 0.943, 0.959 | Support levels: 0.934, 0.919​

 

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CAC 40 - Decline in the bond market supports the position of the index

One of the leading indexes of the European economy, CAC 40, is trading at 6727, continuing the upward correction, which is supported by macroeconomic statistics and the situation on the bond market.

In November, inflation in France was fixed at 0.4%, which had almost no effect on the dynamics of the annual rate, which remained at the level of 6.2%. The Harmonized Consumer Price Index was 7.1%, which also coincides with the data of the previous month. The economic growth, which, contrary to expectations, has not yet slowed down, amounting to 0.2%, as in the previous assessment, and the Manufacturing PMI, which rose to 48.3 points from 47.2 points a month earlier for the first time since the beginning of autumn, should also be noted.

On the daily chart of the asset, quotes are trading above the resistance line of the descending corridor, and the technical indicators hold the buy signal.

Support levels: 6620, 6340 | Resistance levels: 6820, 7020​

 

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Euro widens gains to six-month highs ahead of US jobs data

Euro rose in European trade against dollar for third straight session, hitting six-month highs and on track for the second weekly profit in a row as concerns about the widening policy gap between Europe and the US fades away. Dollar is extending its heavy losses against a basket of major rivals following recent remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, at which he hinted strongly at only a 0.5% rate hike in December.

Investors await important official US payrolls data later today for November, which will provide fresh clues on growth. EURUSD rose over 0.2% to 1.0542, the highest since June, with a session-low at 1.0504, and the largest profit since November 11.​

 

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EURCHF attempts to resume the rise

The EURCHF pair succeeded to provide new positive close above the moving average 55 at 0.9845, to confirm its surrender to the domination of the suggested bullish bias and approach the first target at 0.99. Note that stochastic continuous positive momentum will provide additional chance to record additional gains that might extend towards 0.9935 followed by 1.0 in the medium term period.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.9865 and 0.9935, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.​

 

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EURJPY fluctuates within the bearish track

The EURJPY pair touched 140.75 level on last Friday, to rebound positively towards 42.20 and settles near the moving average 55, these factors won’t affect the bearish track by settling below 142.60 resistance line, to confirm confining trades within the negative track and wait to renew the negative attack to target the first main target at 140.25. On the other hand, breaching the mentioned resistance will confirm regaining the bullish bias by consolidating within the bullish channel again, allowing us to start suggesting the bullish trades and target 143.15 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between 142.60 and 141.1, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.​

 

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EURUSD keeps its positive stability

The EURUSD pair ended last Friday above 1.0515 level after the mixed trades that it witnessed in the previous sessions, starting today with new bullish bias to resume the main bullish trend, approaching our first waited target at 1.0600, waiting for more rise to visit 1.0750 as a next main target. Therefore, the bullish trend scenario will remain valid and active for the upcoming period, supported by the EMA50, noting that it is important to hold above 1.0515 to continue the expected rise.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0500 support and 1.0680 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.​

 

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BTCUSD - The rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve allowed the crypto market to regain its positions

The cryptocurrency market is under the influence of two opposite factors. On the one hand, investors fear the consequences of the bankruptcy of the FTX crypto exchange and are reducing investments in digital assets, as evidenced by the decrease in the number of "whales," which, according to the Glassnode platform, reached a two-year low at 1,662K. On the other hand, the growth of cryptocurrencies can be supported by monetary factors: the slowdown in monetary policy tightening announced last week by US Federal Reserve officials at the December meeting led to the weakening of the US currency against alternative assets, including digital ones. Several analysts expect it will become a driver for the start of the traditional pre-Christmas Santa rally, during which the positions of market leaders will be significantly restored.

If the current growth turns out to be short-term, BTC quotes will return to decline with a long-term target of 10000 – 7000.

The trading instrument is near the resistance zone 17500 – 17830 (Murrey level [6/8], Fibonacci correction 23.6%), the breakdown of which will give the prospect of further growth to 19100 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%), 20000 (Murrey level [8 /8], Fibonacci retracement 50.0%). If the middle line of Bollinger bands is broken down to the area of 16600.00, the decline may resume to 15000 (Murrey level [4/8]) and 13750 (Murrey level [3/8]).

Resistance levels: 17830, 19100, 20000 | Support levels: 16600, 15000, 13750​

 

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis​

The GBPUSD pair shows some bearish bias now to move below 1.2300, to achieve some temporary bearish correction, waiting to get positive motive that assists to push the price to resume the expected bullish trend for today, which depends on the price stability above 1.2130, reminding you that our next main target reaches 1.2465.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.22 support and 1.24 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.​

 

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NI 225 - bond market responds to Japan's supplemental budget

Quotes of the trading instrument lose value amid the adoption by the House of Councilors of the Japanese parliament of a bill to allocate 29.9 trillion yen to mitigate the negative impact of record inflation on the national economy, which will be attracted through the issuance of government bonds and securities. The funds will be used to compensate for the increase in the cost of electricity and fuel (up to 7.82 trillion yen), as well as to combat the consequences of the coronavirus and support the New Capitalism program, which was announced by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price remains within the local ascending corridor, heading towards the support line, and the technical indicators holding a buy signal are ready for a reversal and a new sell signal.

Support levels: 27400, 26500 | Resistance levels: 28100, 28640​

 

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USDCAD Achieves Strong Gains​

USDCAD pair traded with strong positivity yesterday to breach 1.3500 and settles near 1.3600 barrier, to head towards achieving more expected gains in the upcoming sessions, on its ways to visit 1.3680 as a next main target. The EMA50 supports the expected rise, which will remain valid as long as 1.3500 level remains intact.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.3500 support and 1.3670 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.​

 

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Euro hits fresh six-month highs against dollar

Euro rose in European trade for the fourth straight session against dollar, hitting fresh six-month highs as concerns about a widening policy gap between the US and Europe fade. Dollar extended its decline after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent statements about slowing down the pace of rate hikes starting from December. EURUSD rose over 0.4% to 1.0584, the highest since June , after closing up 0.15% on Friday, the third profit in a row as risk appetite dominated markets.

European Rates

The financial markets are now expecting the European Central Bank to increase rates by 75 basis points in December instead of 50. There are strong recent incentives for the ECB to do such move according to many analysts, while the Federal Reserve is only expected to hike rates by 50 basis points this month.​

 

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NZDUSD - The American Currency Received a Growth Impetus

Thus, the report of Statistics New Zealand (Stats.nz) recorded a smooth recovery of the national real estate market: Q3 construction activity in the residential sector increased by 3.1%, and non-residential – by 4.9%, as a result of which the overall indicator increased by 3.8%. Despite the positive dynamics, inflation continues to negatively affect the cost of building maintenance: Q3 cost of maintaining residential buildings increased by 3.0%, and non-residential – by 1.5%.

On the daily chart, the trading instrument moves above the resistance line of the downward channel, approaching it from above for reverse testing, and the technical indicators maintain a stable buy signal, ignoring a possible local correction.

Resistance levels: 0.64, 0.656 | Support levels: 0.6265, 0.61​

 

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XAGUSD - Silver Institute predicts metal supply shortage

The increasing gap between supply and demand in the market can also support the position of the asset: back in early October, the Silver Institute predicted that in 2022 the demand for the precious metal would increase by at least 5.0% and reach 1.11B ounces with a relatively constant supply, which will amount to 1.09B ounces, provoking an increase in prices. At the end of last week, experts revised their preliminary estimates of demand, raising it sharply by 16.0% to 1.21B ounces, which means an even greater shortage of supply, which, according to forecasts by the statistics portal Metals Focus, could reach 194.0 by the end of the year. Confirming the trend, the London Bullion Market Association reported a drop in silver stocks over the past year by a record 27.2%.

On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument continues the global correction, heading above the resistance line of the wide rising channel, and the technical indicators, despite the slowdown, keep a stable buy signal.

Resistance levels: 23.1, 24.4 | Support levels: 21.6, 19.8​

 

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Nasdaq 100 - correction before the meeting of the US Fed

US stock indicators are turning to the downside, and the trend of recent days signals a significant increase in market uncertainty. Next week, on December 14, the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve of the year will take place and, given the recent statements by officials of the regional Federal Reserve Banks (FRB), the regulator is going to slow down the pace of interest rate adjustment. However, the latest data on the labor market confirms the strengthening of the negative dynamics of indicators, and as the Unemployment Rate in the country rises, this may provoke the US financial authorities to continue their "hawkish" policy, which would be a serious blow to the stock market, which is already under pressure.

On the daily chart of the asset, the index quotes continue to trade above the local sideways channel, and the technical indicators maintain a steady buy signal.

Support levels: 11500, 10700 | Resistance levels: 12100, 12800​

 

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ETHUSD - Murrey analysis

The key "bearish" range is the support zone of 1250 – 1210 (Murrey [2/8], the middle line of Bollinger bands), the breakdown of which will give the prospect of a decline to 1125 (Murrey [1/8]) and 1000 (Murrey [0/8]). Otherwise, growth will resume towards the central level of Murrey's trading range and the upper limit of the long-term downward channel around 1500 ([4/8]).

Technical indicators do not give a single signal, illustrating the current uncertainty in the market. Given the persistence of the long-term downward trend, the resumption of negative dynamics soon seems more likely.

Resistance levels: 1375, 1500, 1625 | Support levels: 1210, 1125, 1000​

 

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Bitcoin is Trying to Avoid Losing Momentum

Bitcoin is trying to hold near $17,000 despite deteriorating sentiment on stock market indices. Analyst firm Glassnode reported that the major cryptocurrency has reached several important on-chain levels.



The average of realized losses was at new historical peaks at 0.60, indicating a progressive, unprecedented sell-off in the cryptocurrency market. Historically, these levels have proven to be opportunities for accumulation and heralded an impending rally by cryptocurrency bulls. The level of losses realized by the market since 2011 has become 14 times the level of realized gains. We also see a preserved '4-year cyclicality' in relation to the previous 'cryptocurrency winters' of 2011, 2015 and 2018.



The chart shows two on-chain metrics to better represent the network's cost basis, and which have been breached in previous bear markets. Balanced price (Balanced price, blue band) is an experimental attempt to capture the 'fair' valuation of Bitcoin by measuring the difference between the value investors paid for it and the value of liquidated Bitcoins (Transferred price). The delta price (Delta price, purple band) is the difference between Bitcoin's realized capital and capitalization divided by circulating supply; the moving average refers to Bitcoin's total lifetime. In none of the previous besses did the price of Bitcoin fall below the 'Delta Price' (purple). Only for about 136 of the last 4518 BTC days was there a period where we could see the price 'touching' the balanced price. Currently, we see that both lines are between $15,500 and $12,000. Bitcoin's price briefly found itself near the balanced price after the collapse of FTX, but the bulls quickly reacted by taking the stock up. Throughout BTC's history, the balanced price has proven to be the ultimate support level for Bitcoin, below which declines have never occurred.



Bitcoin chart, M30 interval. The major cryptocurrency managed to hold the $17,000 level despite yesterday's dynamic sell-off, during which supply quickly pushed the bulls on the defensive and prevented it from reaching the $17,500 level. We also see that bitcoin continues to correlate with the NASDAQ index (yellow chart). Yesterday's declines on the indexes translated into sentiment in the cryptocurrency industry. As a result, Bitcoin has again slipped below the 200-session average (red line), and the next closest support is the levels at $16,800, where the 38.2 Fibonacci abolition of the upward wave that began in late November is located.​

 

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EURUSD crawls downwards

The EURUSD pair trades with calm negativity to move away from 1.0515 level, to hint continuing the decline on the intraday basis, targeting visiting 1.0425 followed by 1.0285 after breaking the previous level. Therefore, the bearish bias will be suggested for today, noting that failing to break 1.0425 will lead the price to build bullish wave and attempt to resume the correctional bullish trend again.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0360 support and 1.0520 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.​

 

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Crude oil sell-off intensifies

Oil prices continue to move sharply lower on Tuesday reaching a level not seen since the beginning of the year as rising demand concerns overshadowed the impact of EU price cap on Russian oil. Weak data from China's service sector, weakening manufacturing activity in the EU and US, expectations of further rate increases from major central banks and rebounding dollar put pressure on oil prices. A report that Russia was considering an oil-price floor provided only a brief respite for bulls as price resumed downward move in late afternoon. One needs to remember that if the price will drop below $70.0 per barrel, then this may force OPEC reaction.

Oil price fell below $80 a barrel, its lowest level this year. Looking at the D1 timeframe, one can notice a dynamic break below the support at 82.40, which could lead to a further sell-off. The next key support is located at $76.50.​

 

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XRPUSD - A decline in token quotes – in the future

Last week, the XRPUSD pair attempted to grow, rising to the upper limit of the long-term ascending channel 0.4974, but then began to decline within the framework of the general market trend.

Pressure on XRP, as well as on other leading cryptocurrencies, continues to be exerted by the negative consequences of the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange, which undermined investor confidence in digital assets and provoked an outflow of capital from the sector. In addition, the situation is aggravated by monetary factors. If last week market participants expected a slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes by the US Fed, then after the publication of strong November labor market data, these hopes were replaced by fears of officials abandoning their plans. Moreover, the stability of the economy to the measures already taken to tighten monetary policy may push the regulator to a more serious adjustment of the value above the currently expected peak of 5.0%. In general, the position of the US currency is strengthening in relation to competitors.

It should also be noted that at the end of last week, Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) submitted to the court the latest clarifications on the case of recognizing XRP as a security. From the point of view of the company's lawyers, the regulator could not prove that the sale of the token from 2013 to 2020 was an offer of an "investment contract", therefore it cannot be considered a security. Now market participants will expect a final decision on the case, which is possible by the end of March next year and will have a serious impact on the entire cryptocurrency sector.

Technically, the price consolidated below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands in the area of 0.3855, which gives the prospect of further decline to the levels of 0.3418 (Murray level [-1/8]), 0.2930 (Murray level [-2/8]). If the price consolidates above the level of 0.3906 (Murray level [0/8]), quotes will be able to leave the descending channel and resume growth in the area of 0.4350 (Murray level [1/8], Fibo retracement 23.6%) and 0.4883 (Murray level [2/8]).

Resistance levels: 0.3906, 0.4350, 0.4883 | Support levels: 0.3418, 0.2930​