So we're a country of "Bubbles", where's the next one?

[godoftrading]

Where do you guys think the next Bubble will form? We've been through Tech and housing recently and every time the rates go down something else benefits. I would say Commodities, but Agriculture and Energy are also possible. Tell me what you think and why must be in the area you are suggesting?

Gold is going up but that's due to the decline of the dollar

Energy might be really big by 2015 (especially green energy) in my opinion.

 

[shadowninja]

Green businesses. Those that thrive on the fashion of being green. Once the population has money again, they'll blow it on things like solar panels, re-usable bags, compost makers, etc. That's my guess.

And Al Gore will make a killing.

 

[BSD]

Well, that'd at least have the benefit of providing some value added wotwot.

I mean, cars are great and I love em too, but cars that'll run on sustainable, environment friendly and CO2 neutral bio-fuels like ethanol will be even better.

That's the future for all biggie manufacturers, even niche manufacturers like Koenigsegg or Ferrari have that already or are going to be offering that soon.

Koenigsegg CCX - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Detroit 2008: Ferrari's ethanol-powered 430 Spider Bio Fuel

They are simply accepting responsibility for what happens in our world, and that's good.

Green is the new cool, it's not the people with bad haircuts, dreadful clothes, obese smelly bodies and empty bank accounts any more these days as it was say twenty years ago, the flush and well kempt elite are the new green champions these days, the winners that accept that they have total responsibility for everything that happens in their lives.

Ane there are entire industries arising that will earn fortunes for those with foresight, be it bio-ethanol or solar power etc etc, meaning it's not just a good idea, but also a very lucrative one for those with the ability to accept that change is an endemic part of life, that there is no point crying after a past that will never return.

Look at the manufacturers of steam locomotives, some of the biggest companies around at the turn of two centuries ago.

Laughing at diesel as a fad that would never come about, none of them survived.

Life is change.

Simple as that.

Have a great weekend

 

[luckyd1976]

Green businesses are definately waiting to pop. Many of them havent turned a profit yet (can anyone say tech bubble) and wont.

For the green traders (only 1 major profitable company I found) I would stick with AMAT.

But here's an interesting one to keep an eye on for the future (Automotive IPO) Tesla Motors
With their heavyduty Board of Directors. They are already loading up to go public. They started with their High margin line (Sportscar for the EcoFriendly crowd) first and they are moving forward with their Family Sedans next.

Some could make a case for the Agri plays being the next bubble. This is Based on the artificial supply demand skew created by the Ethenol tax, farming tax credits, and switching of crops to exploit corn. Knowing full well farming, trading, and investing will one day revert back to it's historical norms/means.

But thats the fun of this job, we'll have to wait and see.

 

[BSD]

Beautiful cars, those Teslas.

Schwarzenegger ordered one.

 

[shadowninja]

The problem with these sports cars is that the ecomentalists will say it isn't doing enough. They had a good rant at Virgin with their biofuel plane. Until we are all bearded and stink, living in huts in woods, they won't be happy. People say it's just down to jealousy; the more I think about it, the more I'm inclined to agree. 'Street of Dreams' houses torched; eco-terrorists suspected Correct me if I'm wrong but a lot of fire and smoke can't be that good for the environment.

 

[portomar]

The problem with these sports cars is that the ecomentalists will say it isn't doing enough. They had a good rant at Virgin with their biofuel plane. Until we are all bearded and stink, living in huts in woods, they won't be happy. People say it's just down to jealousy; the more I think about it, the more I'm inclined to agree. 'Street of Dreams' houses torched; eco-terrorists suspected Correct me if I'm wrong but a lot of fire and smoke can't be that good for the environment.

not true. the problem with biofuels is that it leads to increases in food prices, and they produce greenhouse gases anyway. its because its closer to the energy source in the lifecycle (in this case the sun) that the result is less harmful. also, there is tonnes of petrol used in the production of biofuel. if you were to run all the cars in europe on them, it would mean you would need every acre of arable devoted to it. a chilling prospect. they were correct to rant at virgin, coconuts have better uses than using tens of thousands of them on a big greenwash gimmick. hydrogen is the way. also, there is a french company just manafactured a car fueled by compressed air tanks. if you can compress the air in a carbon friendly manner, that would be the future. honda have made a hydrogen car which costs £50000, all we need is hydrogen infrastructure and its lights out for petroleum.

 

[the blades]

not true. the problem with biofuels is that it leads to increases in food prices, and they produce greenhouse gases anyway. its because its closer to the energy source in the lifecycle (in this case the sun) that the result is less harmful. also, there is tonnes of petrol used in the production of biofuel. if you were to run all the cars in europe on them, it would mean you would need every acre of arable devoted to it. a chilling prospect. they were correct to rant at virgin, coconuts have better uses than using tens of thousands of them on a big greenwash gimmick. hydrogen is the way. also, there is a french company just manafactured a car fueled by compressed air tanks. if you can compress the air in a carbon friendly manner, that would be the future. honda have made a hydrogen car which costs £50000, all we need is hydrogen infrastructure and its lights out for petroleum.

pardon my obvious ignorance, but assuming we'd have to crack water to generate the hydrogen, where does the energy come from to crack the water?

Cheers,
UTB

 

[shadowninja]

not true.

What isn't true? I am aware of production issues. This isn't what I am referring to. Anyway, why is everyone going on about how green biofuels are, when they are not that great?

 

[rathcoole_exile]

it's not the people with bad haircuts, dreadful clothes, obese smelly bodies and empty bank accounts

now now Markus, that's no way to talk about Osties. You're all one big happy country now :cheesy:

 

[0007]

Why fear change ?

Ane there are entire industries arising that will earn fortunes for those with foresight, be it bio-ethanol or solar power etc etc, meaning it's not just a good idea, but also a very lucrative one for those with the ability to accept that change is an endemic part of life, that there is no point crying after a past that will never return.

Look at the manufacturers of steam locomotives, some of the biggest companies around at the turn of two centuries ago.

Laughing at diesel as a fad that would never come about, none of them survived.

Life is change.

Simple as that.

So true! And it wasn't the inventors or discoverers; it was the entrepreneurs who had the foresight and vision to exploit change by taking someone else's idea or product and turn it into success. Eg Bill Gates / Henry Ford / Howard Hughes and many Victorian businessmen during the 19thC railway boom.

If you don't take any notice of change you're dead. Bit like trading really.

 

[da-net]

Have been thinking about the next bubble for a bit, but haven't come to any conclusions. Hopefully this thread will get some people thinking and pool the knowledge and bring about great discussions.

Mostly what has been discussed in this thread is the next trend, not necessarily the next bubble. The bubbles I can think of in order were banking (S&L) and Asian stocks, tech stocks, housing, and now commodities & energy.

"Going Green" may be the next trend, but it is not something I believe that john & jane public will participate in like the other bubbles. If they were to it means that "stocks" is back again and I do believe that the public's memory is not very good, but surely it is not that bad.

The public needs to be convinced that the next bubble is going to make them rich, like all previous bubbles. The one that comes to my thinking is water, but even that thought has problems. Also considered Forex, but have too many doubts about it. Water stands out most since people understand water is needed by everyone. Water is really a finite resource in it's potable form. The need for potable water keeps growing as the population grows. Clean abundant potable water has become an issue in areas of the USA where it has never been a problem. Water in most major USA cities has problems with contaminants like chemicals, drugs and paper by products. This could open up areas of innovation for ensuring clean, contaminant free potable water to homes and businesses. Plus it could lead to better recycling. The third world countries have always had potable water problems, so this could be the sales pitch.

What do you think is the next bubble?

 

[maxima]

The problem with these sports cars is that the ecomentalists will say it isn't doing enough. They had a good rant at Virgin with their biofuel plane. Until we are all bearded and stink, living in huts in woods, they won't be happy. People say it's just down to jealousy; the more I think about it, the more I'm inclined to agree. 'Street of Dreams' houses torched; eco-terrorists suspected Correct me if I'm wrong but a lot of fire and smoke can't be that good for the environment.

completely agree. level of jealousy is dispicable.

it blinds public from simple fact that with given level of science there are no feasible solutions can be built to provide energy enough to stop global warming.

the other problem derives from gneral public ignorance and common rejection of scientific methods in favour to "common sence" - drastically changing lifestyle (i.e. living in woods) will bring developed capitalist (western) countries to their knees and agressive regimes (russia, china, middle east and potentilly india and pakistan) will conquer them in months and rule the world and still burn same amount of oil and coal (because they just dont care).

P.S. my only hope that new CERN collider and future controlled nuclear fusion project (being built in france) will save western civilisation.

 

[dick_dastardly]

P.S. my only hope that new CERN collider and future controlled nuclear fusion project (being built in france) will save western civilisation.

my only hope is there isn't some Pakistani scientist working at CERN, staying behind late into the night and going home with a briefcase full of photocopies.


dd

 

[Pat494]

Have been thinking about the next bubble for a bit, but haven't come to any conclusions. Hopefully this thread will get some people thinking and pool the knowledge and bring about great discussions.


What do you think is the next bubble?

The next bubble is the myth of emerging markets. Countries like Russia are sucking in money by the train-load and then mostly appropriating it by hook or by crook.
Look at what they have blatantly done to BP and a few months ago to Shell. Because the politicians weren't all paid off enough they tore up the contracts and cancelled work visas. If you don't pay off the politicians AND the Mafia you get trouble. Big Trouble. BP's CEO in Russia was a bit big to " have an accident " so he was told to leave pronto !!
Don't invest your hard earned money in any of these CROOKED countries. If you do it will melt away. Going to any Court there would be a great waste of time and money. They are all in the pay of the top crooks and dare not annoy them !!

 

[north5]

There is a bubble that is still going - and will probably only continue to do so. That is military technology companies. One good place to look is Israeli companies as they seem to have a bit of a start up culture in this area.

 

[da-net]

Pat, you may be right about "emerging markets", but as i recall every time that card has been played it was a lead in to other bubbles and not the bubble itself. What would make this time different from previous times whereby the "emerging markets" are themselves the bubble?

North, military technology may be worth considering. For something like that to continue would war or threats of war have to escalate? If so the public in the USA is getting fed up with the cost in lives, money, etc...like they did during the Vietnam war and how does this change things if at all in your thinking?

How does John & Jane Public get involved? through stocks? mutual funds? IPO?...could you elaborate on the possibilities each of you see?

 

[Pat494]

Pat, you may be right about "emerging markets", the public in the USA is getting fed up with the cost in lives, money, etc...like they did during the Vietnam war and how does this change things if at all in your thinking?

How does John & Jane Public get involved? through stocks? mutual funds? IPO?...could you elaborate on the possibilities each of you see?

Personally I don't invest in emerging markets. It has all happened before. When my Granny died in the 50s she left a big pile of share certificates from the 20s and 30s that were worthless. Antofagasta railways etc. etc. Invariably they get too greedy and kill the goose that would have laid the " golden eggs ".
I like supermarkets etc. as defensive stocks, in passably honest countries. A bit boring but a whole lot safer.

 

[ivantchourilov]

Well, that'd at least have the benefit of providing some value added wotwot.

I mean, cars are great and I love em too, but cars that'll run on sustainable, environment friendly and CO2 neutral bio-fuels like ethanol will be even better.

That's the future for all biggie manufacturers, even niche manufacturers like Koenigsegg or Ferrari have that already or are going to be offering that soon.

Koenigsegg CCX - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Detroit 2008: Ferrari's ethanol-powered 430 Spider Bio Fuel

They are simply accepting responsibility for what happens in our world, and that's good.

Green is the new cool, it's not the people with bad haircuts, dreadful clothes, obese smelly bodies and empty bank accounts any more these days as it was say twenty years ago, the flush and well kempt elite are the new green champions these days, the winners that accept that they have total responsibility for everything that happens in their lives.

Ane there are entire industries arising that will earn fortunes for those with foresight, be it bio-ethanol or solar power etc etc, meaning it's not just a good idea, but also a very lucrative one for those with the ability to accept that change is an endemic part of life, that there is no point crying after a past that will never return.

Look at the manufacturers of steam locomotives, some of the biggest companies around at the turn of two centuries ago.

Laughing at diesel as a fad that would never come about, none of them survived.

Life is change.

Simple as that.

Have a great weekend

still very expensive to produce, but in a few years this will a a massive industry. i was thinking about this while watching the GM CEO interview on CNBC. GM is all about big cars, and unless there is no major drop in oil, they will be in much more trouble than they are at the moment. id like to see them come out with a a green car. id jump on VW for that reason alone. they made an Audi that is 100% green and goes to 100 in somehing crazy like 6-7 seconds. power it up when you get home and your off zooming until spanish catches you when he finally becomes a cop..

 

[ivantchourilov]

The next bubble is the myth of emerging markets. Countries like Russia are sucking in money by the train-load and then mostly appropriating it by hook or by crook.
Look at what they have blatantly done to BP and a few months ago to Shell. Because the politicians weren't all paid off enough they tore up the contracts and cancelled work visas. If you don't pay off the politicians AND the Mafia you get trouble. Big Trouble. BP's CEO in Russia was a bit big to " have an accident " so he was told to leave pronto !!
Don't invest your hard earned money in any of these CROOKED countries. If you do it will melt away. Going to any Court there would be a great waste of time and money. They are all in the pay of the top crooks and dare not annoy them !!

totally agree there. being from russia originally i have to say this. politicians have the money. even moreso after KGB/FSB gained control via putin (who has some insane amount of money, something like 48billion, tucked away due to the oil booming and him conviniently being ceo of one or two companies). gazprom is a major part of the RTS accounting for close to 50%, yet the RTS has not really profited much this year, despite the oil surging. why? because a lot of money "dissapears".

in terms of court, there is no court.