SniperDaytrader's journal

[SniperDaytrader]

For me - Trading by keeping all simple - is exactly like the book - "Brain Surgery made easy" - or "Rocket Science for dummies".

The FX markets are dynamic and extremely complex and if traders think they can successfully make great returns by keeping everything simple - GL to them - but all what will happen is they will end up with simple results - ie either "break-even" or small profits ( if they are lucky ) ;-)

Hello F,

I am not trading FX, but I couldn´t express my view on the markets better. I think this is one of the biggest bias of the whole industry.

When you decide to trade very simple strategy the first question to ask is who is probably going to profit most if you trade it? Is it going to be you? If your strategy is so simple that you don't need discretionary decision process, why do you trade it on your own? Why not just program it and let the computer trade for you? And if your strategy is so simple (specially when it relies on well know indies like EMAs) that you could trade it how hard do you think it is for banks, hedge funds and MMs (market makers) to program counter strategy to feed on your stop losses?

This is the biggest issue with all these well-known strategies which you can usually find for free on internet - like Woodies CCIs etc. Who trades those? Usually people who just entered the trading industry and are influenced by ads all over the net. They think they just need to be disciplined and after 2 years they will buy their first yacht. So they take the first easiest strategy which is for free and start. They dont spend much time with it because they read on forums how well it works.

These beginning traders w/o experience are then the easiest prey for the big animals. What do you think quants do? They simply program the behaviour of novice traders in the markets. There are different styles of trading but these big pools of traders who trade the same way (Woodies CCIs, crossing EMAs etc.) make it easy for them.

I know that there are millions ways how you can trade the markets and I saw also very simple ideas work but it was always about the trader understanding the market not about something as simple as 2 EMAs crossing each other.

Remember that 80-90% of us is loosing money in this game.

Good luck to all of you,
Pepe

 

[SniperDaytrader]

and you think traders make 25/40 per cent every month on their capital you really are in la la land

I think percentage returns are very misleading when talking about DAYtrading. It is a whole different game than if you are trading for longer periods (weeks, months, spreads etc.). In the later case it make sense, in daytrading it doesnt.

I am able to make 1 - 1.5k USD in NQ or YM per month with a single contract (which is basically playing aaround). I know personaly couple of guys who can make (and are making) 5-8 times more with 2 contracts (just a test, they trade much larger usually).

This strategy is executable with very conservative risk management with small account 8 - 10k USD. The guys I know have of course much bigger accounts but what I want to say is - the 8k is all they need for this approach and that would mean they can make 100% RETURN IN A MONTH.

There is a guy called Don Miller. He wrote an excellent book which I highly recommend to read as inspiration. He has his own blog where he shows some of his trades etc. and he was showing some approach where he was trading some 40 contracts of ES with very small account (not sure now but I think 100k), which probably breaks all the RISK mng. rules you read about in every book (2% risk per trade max. etc.) but he explained that he has backup money in his bank account and when needed he will simply wire it to his trading account. This guy was making CONSTANTLY (read his book) 15k - 80k USD DAILY. Which would mean 15-80% return DAILY.

As for myself, currently my perfect daily target is in 80-120 USD range. I can trade this strategy pretty conservative with 6-7k USD with single contract which leaves us with 1 - 1.5% daily return (20-30% monthly).

So as you can see - it doesn't really have any sense to count percentages.

 

[SniperDaytrader]

Weekly results: 5th week of 2015

This week’s results scream at me ”NOT READY YET”. Even when I ended up in positive numbers it is not that easy and effortless trading I used to have when I was achieving the best results. Partly because the markets are just coming back to normal, but mostly because hasty nervous trading.

As always, I am attaching trading log and overall results and equity (from 7th of January, 2015).

 

[SniperDaytrader]

2.2.2015 trading results

Today's trading was tough fight for me but with happy ending. I was totally frustrated at the beginning after I was stopped 3 times in a row with market hitting my stop losses with unbelievable precision (it went just 2 ticks, 5 ticks and then 1 tick below my SL). Needless to say that in all of these cases, market shot in my direction with great volatile move. This means I was right with the entry but I didn't calculate with the volatile moves. Partly my mistake and partly simply bad luck. Very important (specially for me, since I am hot headed) was that I didn't loose my mind and didn't start to make stupid trades to reduce the loss. I waited patiently until I saw next opportunity and then I shot back with excellent precision with Trade 4, which erased my loss and I made some money on top of it. I made two quick trades later in the evening and called it a long and hard day.

T1 This was very nice setup, entry price was also ok. I could argue with myslef about not taking the first momentum target at 8-9 ticks, but according to the tape, I was expecting much bigger movement. So the market firs touched my PT at 10 ticks, I was not filled and then went 2 ticks below my stop loss, just to make sure it gets filled -12

T2 I didn't reenter on the same level but waited for pullback. I was right with the structure again and market really pulled back before it rallied up. I placed quick order after it stoped moving down and was happy about my good price until the market made yet another volatile jump down taking my SL out again. -6

T3 Another break entry. Again very nice situation on tape. I saw many hasty bears trying to push the market but they run out of breath. I entered long, market moved and touched my PT at +12 without triggering it and after that it went down just one tick below my SL. Dejavú and frustration. -8

I promised myself I won't do any hasty trades and enter just in clear setups, I kept waiting until I saw another opportunity for break in NQ.

T4 This was again excellent orderflow situation. Trapped bears in agony couldn't get out of the position. I nearly felt sorry for them. I placed my LIMIT order well before the market moved to it's price level. It is all about wholesale This allowed me to use very limited risk and I almost didn't have to manage the trade at all. After the market returned for my LMT order, it rallied up very fast. I had heat 3 ticks for approx. 3 seconds. This is perfect example of sniper trade, this is how I like to trade. I saw great volatility and strong market so I moved my PT just before the high of the day. It took the market just 2 minutes and 46 seconds before it reached it. $190 in 3 minutes, you gotta love trading sometime.+38

You can see the moment when I enterd the trade at one of the pics

T5 I tried quick long but couldn't get out at +7. I didn't want to risk more so I got out at BE+1

T6 Another long, while feeding on hasty bears stop losses. This time in DowJones. Even when I saw the potential to move to the POC, I opted for quick +7

 

[SniperDaytrader]

Video of my yesterday's winner in Nasdaq
http://www.sniperdaytrader.com/2-2-2015-winner-190-trade/
Enjoy

 

[itspossible]

 

[SniperDaytrader]

3.2.2015 trading results

Nasdaq proved again that it can live it´s own life and doesn’t care for correlation with otherwise correlating markets. Not really ideal situation for me. I tried to limit my risk to minimum, resulting in lot of missed trades but the strategy proved to be correct.

T1 This is perfect example of a ”sniper” trade. I placed my limit order on very conservative price level and waited for the market. I moved the order several times even lower reacting to the orderflow. Finally I got hit with quick spike. Market moved just single tick beyond my order limit and then climbed up very fast. As a matter of fact, the move was so fast that I couldn’t move my profit target higher and got filled at basic PT. Total time in trade was 8 seconds, heat 1 tick. +10

The moment when I entered the trade is on the attached pic

T2 Aggressive trade from the same price level, but the market didn’t react as expected so I opted for quick BE+1 and dodged the bullet.

T3 I waited patiently for another opportunity. I missed couple of trades where the market didn’t return for my limit order, but that is part of the game. I enterd dirrectly into trapped bulls this time and took quick +8.

Again see the attachement fot he moment of entry.

 

[SniperDaytrader]

Do you prepare your entry zones before the opening bell? I do. Look how nicely is Nasdaq respecting them. (I am tweeting my preparation before I start trading)

 

[Forexmospherian]

Do you prepare your entry zones before the opening bell? I do. Look how nicely is Nasdaq respecting them. (I am tweeting my preparation before I start trading)

Just out of interest as I don't trade your instruments - but do you see many exact time changes on interim highs and lows - ie like 9 mins to or past hr or exact on hr change etc etc ??

Regards


F

 

[SniperDaytrader]

Just out of interest as I don't trade your instruments - but do you see many exact time changes on interim highs and lows - ie like 9 mins to or past hr or exact on hr change etc etc ??

Regards


F

Sorry, I am not sure I follow...

 

[itspossible]

Hi SD.Ive a few questions for you.please feel free to tell me to bugger off.
1-How much money have you lost over the years that you have been trading.
2-When you go live how much a pip will you wage.eg $1 per pip etc.
3-Will you do this for a living or do you have a day job
4-how much money will be in your trading account.
Just for your information i am on a 10k demo at the moment trying a few methods.
i am trading 50pence per point.
when i was young and daft i used to trade a fairly large account but found it stressful.

 

[Forexmospherian]

Sorry, I am not sure I follow...

I have found I tend to intraday trade in FX using time windows and key times.

So for me the actual time of the hour in the session is very important.

I wondered whether you have spotted similar changes at certain times etc ie for me 85% of all my scalps are in 2 x TW's of 18 mins each and I only use 6 key times of the hour to look for new entries - if my other indicators and Price Action are agreeing

Hope that explains what I mean more

Regards


F

 

[timsk]

Video of my yesterday's winner in Nasdaq. . .
Enjoy

Hi SniperDaytrader,
Thanks for posting this but, in my case, without any commentary it goes straight over my head!


I see you've got a little chart of the $Tick in the bottom right hand corner. Just wondered how you use it?

Just for fun, in a dull moment, if your software package enables you to chart Point & Figure charts, try plotting a standard 3 box reversal set to a box size of 25 or 30. Then watch out for simple breakouts of double tops 'n bottoms at extreme levels, i.e. when the market is super volatile and program trades are sending $Tick into >+800 or <-800 territory. Although futures tend to lead cash, sometimes you'll see buying/selling in equities ahead of futures. Also, divergence shows up very clearly which isn't quite so easy to spot in your 2 min candle chart.
Tim.

 

[SniperDaytrader]

Hi SD.Ive a few questions for you.please feel free to tell me to bugger off.
1-How much money have you lost over the years that you have been trading.
2-When you go live how much a pip will you wage.eg $1 per pip etc.
3-Will you do this for a living or do you have a day job
4-how much money will be in your trading account.
Just for your information i am on a 10k demo at the moment trying a few methods.
i am trading 50pence per point.
when i was young and daft i used to trade a fairly large account but found it stressful.

1. A lot. I cleared couple of trading accounts. Maybe I will share the exact number in the future.
2. I don't understand the question. I don't trade FX, I trade futures. NQ and YM mostly. I tick is 5 USD in both of the markets.
3. I have small passive income and lot of savings which helps me to concentrate just on the trading without the need to work somewhere else. Before I had nice job as a sales and marketing director in telecommunication company, but it was mentally too challenging and that is why I couldn't concentrate on trading.
4. I will start with 6.5k USD and will trade just 1 contract from beginning. See how it goes.

My goal is to trade 5-10 contracts. That would be enough for me.

 

[SniperDaytrader]

I have found I tend to intraday trade in FX using time windows and key times.

So for me the actual time of the hour in the session is very important.

I wondered whether you have spotted similar changes at certain times etc ie for me 85% of all my scalps are in 2 x TW's of 18 mins each and I only use 6 key times of the hour to look for new entries - if my other indicators and Price Action are agreeing

Hope that explains what I mean more

Regards


F

Ah, I see. Maybe we don't understand each other so well because we trade different instruments. You trade FX which is 24hour market, I trade futures which are also kind of 24h a day (those which trade electronicaly) but most of the futures have enough volume to trade only in the regular exchange hours (8:30 - 15:30 US ECT). Don't be confused with the time in my charts. I am currently located in central Europe so I use the local time (15:30 - 22:30).

I pretty much use the standart time settings. Mostly I use 2min timeframe but that can change according to volatility. I am watching 4 markets (NQ, YM, ES and EMD).

 

[SniperDaytrader]

Hi SniperDaytrader,
Thanks for posting this but, in my case, without any commentary it goes straight over my head!


I see you've got a little chart of the $Tick in the bottom right hand corner. Just wondered how you use it?

Just for fun, in a dull moment, if your software package enables you to chart Point & Figure charts, try plotting a standard 3 box reversal set to a box size of 25 or 30. Then watch out for simple breakouts of double tops 'n bottoms at extreme levels, i.e. when the market is super volatile and program trades are sending $Tick into >+800 or <-800 territory. Although futures tend to lead cash, sometimes you'll see buying/selling in equities ahead of futures. Also, divergence shows up very clearly which isn't quite so easy to spot in your 2 min candle chart.
Tim.

Hi TIMSK,

well it is not easy to explain what I am doing in just few sentences. Tapereading is very complex way how to observe markets and it takes thousands of hours watching the orderflow to understand it. On the other hand, as soon as you start understanding the patterns in orderflow you are waaaay ahead of most of the traders.

The best way how to learn it is to start watching it. But before you have to know exactly why markets are moving. You have to have very clear answer for the question: Why the market moves 1 tick higher or lower? And it has to be clear answer, not some philosophical BS.

Then you simply watch what the orderflow does in interesting places. For example those you mentioned in your post. I use sometimes rangebars for the same reason as you do. I also use market divergencies. That is why I follow 4 correlating markets.

As to the TICK. I use it to estimate the general mood in the markets. So I might be more cautions taking shorts when the TICK is at +800, or I might skip the short alltogether.

 

[SniperDaytrader]

Here is another video of low-risk, high profit trade:

Enjoy

 

[SniperDaytrader]

5.2.2015 trading results

I am very sick the whole week. Yesterday I couldn't get up from bed to trade, today I was trading but I was not feeling very good yet. Markets have been pretty slow from the beginning but after first hour of trading they have been pretty much dead. I missed very nice opportunity in NQ at 16:12 and after that the volume was very low.

T1 Perfect long in Dow Jones. I took just 7 ticks but I don't see it as a mistake. +7
T2 I was lured into a trap in Nasdaq at high of the day. The market was too strong for short. I managed to cut the loss to 7 ticks. -7
T3 I saw opportunity for long because the markets have been very strong. I killed the position at BE+1 though after it kept returning back. +1
T4 Another long from the same area, this time I took quick 7 ticks after I took the low volume and volatility in to consideration. +7
T5 Not ideal trade, but it worked at the end. I don't like to enter markets with low volume like this one. It was also not ideal area in market structure to enter long. My risk was however very limited. +10

 

[itspossible]

1. A lot. I cleared couple of trading accounts. Maybe I will share the exact number in the future.
2. I don't understand the question. I don't trade FX, I trade futures. NQ and YM mostly. I tick is 5 USD in both of the markets.
3. I have small passive income and lot of savings which helps me to concentrate just on the trading without the need to work somewhere else. Before I had nice job as a sales and marketing director in telecommunication company, but it was mentally too challenging and that is why I couldn't concentrate on trading.
4. I will start with 6.5k USD and will trade just 1 contract from beginning. See how it goes.

My goal is to trade 5-10 contracts. That would be enough for me.

thank you

 

[SniperDaytrader]

I was sick the whole week, so my concentration was not really good. On Wednesday I felt very bad so I didn't trade at all and I remained in the bed. I managed to reduce the number of trades a littlebit but I still took too many trades (21). My win% was just over 60% which is something I am not really happy about. I somehow manage to keep my weekly earnings per contract constantly between 200 and 250 USD.