Smash Days in forex

[tomorton]

Wednesday Close update -

AUD/NZD long running

CHF pairs listed yesterday failed to print Smash Days.

New bearish Smash Day set-ups printed for EUR/CHF, GBP/CHF, GBP/JPY

Onwards and upwards!

 

[tomorton]

Friday Close update -

AUD/NZD long running

It's the turn of the JPY to be sold off so most JPY pairs show bearish Smash Day set-ups.

As ever, setting orders to rest through a weekend of troubling geo-political events plus the volatile Asian opening can be nerve-racking.

Have a nice weekend.

 

[tomorton]

Monday Close update -

AUD/NZD long running - should be closing this tonight (barring any massive collapse in price)
AUD/JPY short triggered

Other JPY pairs also triggered by Smash Days Monday -
CAD/JPY
NZD/JPY
USD/JPY
EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY not triggered

New Smash Day set-ups -
EUR/GBP, bullish
GBP/CAD, bearish
GBP/NZD, bearish
GBP/USD, bearish
take your pick.

Have a good day.

 

[tomorton]

Tuesday Close update -

Closed AUD/NZD long.
Gain = +78 pips
r:r = 1:1.4
Win rate = 1/1 (100%)

AUD/JPY short running

New Smash Day set-ups -
GBP/AUD, bearish
GBP/NZD, bearish
NZD/CAD, bullish

Great weather in England today I think.

 

[RolloTape2025]

A nice win tomorton 🙂 yeah it is quite sunny out

I guess inherent in the system is that you will have correlated trades. So risk might actually be more than desired, e.g. if GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD both trigger, perhaps need to size down

 

[tomorton]

A nice win tomorton 🙂 yeah it is quite sunny out

I guess inherent in the system is that you will have correlated trades. So risk might actually be more than desired, e.g. if GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD both trigger, perhaps need to size down

Yes, not unique to Smash Day trades of course, but AUD positions correlate almost always closely with NZD, and CHF with EUR. Often there is also GBP with EUR and CAD with USD.

AUD/JPY is often the pair with closest correlation with the S&P.

 

[RolloTape2025]

Yes, not unique to Smash Day trades of course, but AUD positions correlate almost always closely with NZD, and CHF with EUR. Often there is also GBP with EUR and CAD with USD.

AUD/JPY is often the pair with closest correlation with the S&P.

AUD/JPY correlation to S&P 500 is a bit weird and I wasn't aware of that.

 

[tomorton]

AUD/JPY correlation to S&P 500 is a bit weird and I wasn't aware of that.

I've only read an exlanation for this after I found the correlation so I was pleased to have confirmation of what I'd noted but it wasn't really explained. Except to say that this pair is a pure risk-on/risk-off play, and I suppose the same could be said of the S&P. Nut that's not unique to this pair surely I'm thinking.
Anyway, they move too closely to ignore it.

 

[tomorton]

Strategy update -

Bullish EUR/USD Smash Day set-up printed 01/05.
Buy order triggered 02/05.
This is a with-trend long.
Exit (assuming not stopped out) will be at first profitable Close on or after 08/05.

The previous bullish Smash Days on this pair were -
27/03 - Win = +100 pips
03/03 - Win = +425 pips
04/02 - Win = +12 pips