Smash Days in forex

[Lightning McQueen]

It has to be said that so far this strategy hasn't produced, for me at least on my choices, a single signal.

All I'm seeing is momentum direction continue the following day, therefore making the signal null and void.

That said i will make my picks at or near todays close.

 

[Lightning McQueen]

Today my smash trade selection is a buy on GBPUSD

And a buy on USDHKD

 

[tomorton]

It has to be said that so far this strategy hasn't produced, for me at least on my choices, a single signal.

All I'm seeing is momentum direction continue the following day, therefore making the signal null and void.

That said i will make my picks at or near todays close.

That is correct and it's actually reassuring. The strategy has a low frequency of signals, with a high probability of success.

 

[RolloTape2025]

What are the backtest results on this?

 

[tomorton]

What are the backtest results on this?

You can see more statistics on this than I could ever produce, plus some variations on the set-up and trade management rules here -

 

[Lightning McQueen]

GBPUSD and USDHKD didn't trigger therefore orders are cancelled.

No new signals today.

 

[Lightning McQueen]

Smash day buy USDHKD

 

[tomorton]

Smash day buy USDHKD

View attachment 341084

It's a beautiful set-up. I'm not sure I have the determination to set the entry order.......

 

[Lightning McQueen]

It's a beautiful set-up. I'm not sure I have the determination to set the entry order.......

It has disaster written all over it.

Steamed in without looking on a lower timeframe first! we shall see 🤔

 

[RolloTape2025]

I think sometimes it is ok to realise there is massive (Trump) manipulation going on right now, and maybe the setups aren't great.

But might still work

 

[Lightning McQueen]

..and is why Tomo has wisely sat on his hands.

A V shaped recovery would certainly help normalise things.

on a personal note I need that V as my pension cash lump is currently taking a battering!!

 

[tomorton]

Knowing what is "normal" is important. It's important to know when to turn the PC off and go hiking instead of trading.

In normal times all three of the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P are above their 50EMA's and their 20EMA's are above their 50's.

On an individual forex market etc. it is such as when swing legs are bullish when price is above the 50EMA, or bearish when it is below. Or such as when multiple D1 charts show outside days and outside key reversals.

It's a never-ending puzzle isn't it.

 

[tomorton]

It's possible that forex volatility is going to decrease significantly in the next few days and we will see the welcome sight of some more forex Smash Day set-ups.

I still intend to ignore any such signals which print at the close today (Thursday) and tomorrow. I would rather be flat across the weekend - when Presidents are working and having meetings and making decisions at the weekend, times are not normal.

 

[RolloTape2025]

Yeah definitely some market wisdom from you there tomorton. Unfortunately I tried to trade these markets, and didn't go too well 🙂

 

[Lightning McQueen]

USDHKD order cancelled.

Todays smash day buy is USDCAD

 

[tomorton]

Smash Day set-ups thin on the ground this week so far, and none seem to have triggered.

This morning I have a buy order set at the high of USD/JPY, which printed a set-up yesterday, 16/04. This would be a very counter-trend position if the order triggers today so there are some optional responses available -
1. smaller position size
2. tighter stop-loss
3. shorter waiting time for the exit at profitable close, say 3 days instead of 5

 

[tomorton]

Yesterday's session has generated 6 Smash Day set-ups, all featuring NZD weakness - I personally avoid Australasian pairs due to high spreads (except for their one major, AUD/USD). Some would be with-trend entries. NZD pairs are mostly low historic volatility but NZD/JPY and NZD/USD are very high.

EUR/NZD, long, with-trend
GBP/NZD, long
NZD/CAD, short
NZD/CHF, short, with-trend
NZD/JPY, short, with-trend, volatility high
NZD/USD, short, counter-trend, volatility high

No actions for me today.

 

[tomorton]

By the way, all the NZD set-ups printed Inside Days yesterday, which is perhaps to be expected on a Good Friday, so no orders should have been triggered anyway.

Next review of charts will be Tuesday night.

Happy Easter.

 

[tomorton]

Finally got a Smash Day entry, long AUD/NZD. Not one of my favourite pairs as margin is high and long-term volatility low, plus right now long on this is a very counter-trend position so my position size is small.

Onwards and upwards!

 

[tomorton]

Tuesday Close update -
AUD/NZD long running

Almost the full range of CHF pairs show bearish Smash Day set-ups -
AUD, CAD, EUR, GBP, NZD, USD.

If anyone had thought to expand this strategy to the US indices, the Dow, Nas and S&P would all have longs running, all showing decent profits so far as US markets go through some kind of rally. Who knows how long that will last........