Sounds good. I'll keep an eye on you, although I found them to be like pins, sometimes good and some not so. Interested to know what time frames you use.
Sounds good. I'll keep an eye on you, although I found them to be like pins, sometimes good and some not so. Interested to know what time frames you use.
foredog
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Hi Split
You're dead right that IB's can be hit or miss, but the secret is the size of the winners, a bit of trading and a bit of backtesting has indicated that this will only win 50% ish but the winners usually average 50+ where as the stops are 20.
The trick seems to be bagging a few 100+ winners and they're basically you're profit and the other winners pay for the losers.
I will be trading 1hour IB's
As a side note I compared the 1hr to 15mn using this method since 14th September, (as thats as far as IG went on 15m) not a great study but it'll do.
15 min 58 trades 366 pips profit
1hr 17 trades 648 pips profit.
This is just cable and others may be different. All had 20 pip stop.
Just wish i'd been around to take all those trades!!!
You're dead right that IB's can be hit or miss, but the secret is the size of the winners, a bit of trading and a bit of backtesting has indicated that this will only win 50% ish but the winners usually average 50+ where as the stops are 20.
The trick seems to be bagging a few 100+ winners and they're basically you're profit and the other winners pay for the losers.
I will be trading 1hour IB's
As a side note I compared the 1hr to 15mn using this method since 14th September, (as thats as far as IG went on 15m) not a great study but it'll do.
15 min 58 trades 366 pips profit
1hr 17 trades 648 pips profit.
This is just cable and others may be different. All had 20 pip stop.
Just wish i'd been around to take all those trades!!!
Gd Luck
Gd Luck mate. i opened an acct at etx too, first trade took a daily pin on gbp/chf the other day, put a 30 pip stop loss, got stopped out, and yep, trade did exactly what i thought and missed out on a nice profit. Such is life, just wondered if tight stops might be a prob.
If i'd adhered to my normal stop, beyond the bar, it wud have been a gd un.
But at 50p a pip, stops are a problem, at least on the daily.
Edit: just seen your on 1hr 15min, so not so crucial.
Gd Luck mate. i opened an acct at etx too, first trade took a daily pin on gbp/chf the other day, put a 30 pip stop loss, got stopped out, and yep, trade did exactly what i thought and missed out on a nice profit. Such is life, just wondered if tight stops might be a prob.
If i'd adhered to my normal stop, beyond the bar, it wud have been a gd un.
But at 50p a pip, stops are a problem, at least on the daily.
Edit: just seen your on 1hr 15min, so not so crucial.
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I'm getting the trend direction right, now, on a satisfactory basis so close stops have not been such a problem for me. This morning, though, on FT, I got stopped on a short trade and missed a good morning because of it. So, maybe, stops might be better further away.
foredog
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Know what you mean, but it's l about percentages.
The 20 pips stop works most of the time, sometimes you get stopped out at the very top of a pullback, but the thing is with the winers you can stack on better size
If you're rising £100 for example 50point stop means £2pp, 20 pt stop means £5pp. So let say i get stopped out for 2 of them with 50 or 20 stop so i've lost £200. a 3rd retraces 30 point so i'm stopped out by the 20 but not the 50, this one gives me 50pts profit so now i'm down £300 with 20 and only £100 with the 50.
The next two are 80 point winners, so with the 20stop I make £800, with the 50 point stop I make £320.
20 stop total £500 50 stop £220
With this method you're looking for some of the winners to be BIG winners so when they go for 100+ pips you want to have the best size on them, so taking a few hits will happen along the way.
Wont work for everyone though.
Another example is the account, So far i've had 1 stop out, 1 break even and one winner but because i had the small stop the winners delivered a 70% profit (imagine it was a bigger account, obviously i traded the smallest i could because of the account balance!)
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foredog
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Hi foredog,
Good to see your thread revived! Can I put in a request for a chart to accompany the description of the trades you take please? A picture paints . . .
Tim.
I'll see what I can do Tim.
trendie
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hi foredog,
interesting stats: are they based on every single trade, or only those between 6am and 10pm or something?
also, are you using the additional filter of only taking longs if IB is above midnights price, and only takng shorts if bar is below midnights price?
I have DIBS TriggerLines1.1, and I cant replicate the 17 trades. (maybe I am using the wrong exit rule)
the most useful component is the small-stop, and thus the better returns when a runner occurs, rather than the wider stop, more wins, but ultimately lower return.
that aspect is one component that tends not to be discussed, since people are too engaged in entries and exits.
good thread.
EDIT: have uploaded the alerter I used. Is this it?
montmorencyt2w
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Personally I've never found IBs to work for me, although I know others seem to, especially TD for example. I'm probably just bad at picking out the good ones.
It would therefore definitely be good to see some charts of recent working examples.Thanks.
By small stop, do you mean that the stop is close to the end of the IB? I think that that is risky, as a lot of the IBs I have studied make false moves.
I have been studying these bars afresh, after a long time, and have come up with a plan for me to try next week. For me, the IB is a trigger to enter the trade but I need other factors that, I believe, indicate trend direction. They can be averages or, if the averages are flat, SR lines.
foredog
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Hi Trendie, the 17 trades were mostly IB's but a couple of Pins bars as well. All were below the 6am open and below 50ma (shorts) and of course above 6am and 50ma for long.
Hopefully the chart below has come out and shows the 1 winner so far on the account.
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foredog
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Split
I always have a 20pip stop, IB's etc are meant as breakout tools and it's either going to go or not, if it comes back 20 pips from my entry i feel it's probably not going to go. Occaissonally it will come back from there but i feel that for me it's better to have decent size on the trades that do run than have big stops small size so even the ones that go 100+ will only be delivering 2x risk.
It seems to be that they only "win" 50% of the time so i'd rather have my 50% delivering 3, 4 or more times risk than 60% or 70% winners but only 1.5x risk.
That's just me though.
It would be good if you could let us know how you get on with your plan next week.
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foredog
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Stopped out for -14 as had move stop to below low of previous candle. Trade did run 20+ pips into profit, but my rule was to move to BE at +30, if i start moving it at +20 then before i know it it will be when up 10 and start missing the big moves.
I'm doing Footsie. I could have taken a loss of 16 points (roughly). It's very much an experiment for me and I have a stop of 30. However, this is a dull day and painfully slow. At present my potential loss has improved to 9 points.
I used TF5, then TF10. Now, because of the slowness, I am on TF15. I have been spoiled for choice on TF 5 and TF10. Lots of IBs.
I know that you recommend TF60, but I don't get good results on FT.
neil
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What time was this inside bar?
Was it on the hourly - in which case there was an IB on 5am bar?
foredog
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Yes, 5am was an IB, will post a chart at the end of the day with any additional trades on there.
foredog
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I'm doing Footsie. I could have taken a loss of 16 points (roughly). It's very much an experiment for me and I have a stop of 30. However, this is a dull day and painfully slow. At present my potential loss has improved to 9 points.
I used TF5, then TF10. Now, because of the slowness, I am on TF15. I have been spoiled for choice on TF 5 and TF10. Lots of IBs.
Yes, never really found that many good ones on the indexes whatever the TF, not studied them massively though.
