Silver

nefariousbaffler

Member
58 0
Hello,

After Friday's huge gain in silver prices I'm interested in hearing peoples thoughts on it. It flirted with 6 year highs at 7$ yesterday.
 

Rainmaker

Active member
201 3
my only issue with silver is the supply elasticity (as the Hunt brothers discovered in the early 80's). there are a lot of mothballed mines out there that are uneconomic at today's price, but if the price rises, will be re-opened. sorry for the fundamentals! prefer palladium and platinum.
 

PeterTT

Member
87 1
Historically Silver tends to be a high beta play on Gold .. I am long term bullish for silver but prefer to buy on weakness and lighten on rallies .. I find this much less stressful/painful !

Peter
 

bgold

Established member
532 5
Perhaps a silver thread should be in the commodities section.
At least for now, until for as long the current moentary system survives!

Actually, high time that Silver gets some more attention at T2W.
 

bgold

Established member
532 5
No sweat, perhaps one of moderators can move the thread (or wwe can start a new one). Good stuff. Silver has been very exciting and many believe it will remain exciting for many years to come.
 

TheBramble

Legendary member
8,394 1,170
On a quick scan of the article it doesn't state how long this condition has existed. My thoughts being the longer it's been this way - the less likely any change will occur (faulty logic?).

As they do say though, the 'Longs' haven't yet asked for delivery of the goods - and maybe they wont either - or not all at once for all of it.

However, for the gamblers (are there any?), a long punt would seem attractive if you're prepared to sit it out.
 

TWI

Senior member
2,536 254
I agree. Considering that photographic film is 50% of global silver demand and my SLR has not left the house since I bought a digital one.
 

TWI

Senior member
2,536 254
I think that the photographic demand is a big flag to mortgaging the house on a silver long. These theories about precious manipulation have been around a long time and there likely is some truth to them but it does not mean that there will be an imminent blow up, these stories only really come to the fore when the markets are in the bull run anyway. Look at Gold, it is now being managed around 400 yet articles continue to abound about how it should be 700+. If there really was a real shortage of Silver then buyers would take delivery and lease rates would go ballistic. If longs have not taken delivery in 15 years then they cannot have too much trouble finding the stuff. Saying that it is certainly not a market to short right now and longs have paid well since mid 2003. There is some major resistance just above here so will be a good test.
 

PeterTT

Member
87 1
I remember reading an article about 9 months ago saying that one area that is increasing the demand for silver is greater Indian prosperity. Apparently silver jewellery is given to brides at weddings. Not a small amount either, so, as people become more prosperous, the amount of gifts increase ! Wish I could find the article .. was very interesting and prompted my first silver long, so I guess I owe the author a drink !

Peter
 

bgold

Established member
532 5
Good piece of work.
While I agree with the conclusion that digital will hacve little impact on demand for silver, I do think the analysis need a little (understatement) refinement to better represent the argument:

Take the sumary conclusions:

1. yes, Co-existence and not replacement but please use a better example the nail gun and hammer (eg expert intensive user vs occasional user). Digital is easy to use, gives immediate satisfaction (eg one can se pictures) etc, etc

6. Costs: Ask yourself, if you get your developed pictures (say family shots) back, how many do you really love and want to time and time again? Our experience is very few. My experience is that one can save a lot of money by just having their favourite digital pictures printed (home or via on-line service).

7. Nonsense: cost of digital photography will collapse.
Digital is easy to use and one should expect explosive growth as technology improves (don't forget only best digital camera's just match APX quality!) and PC/internet usage growths (broadband penatration is only starting and one should expect home PC usage to grow explosively - assumption). Did you hear that LG Philips and Samsung will be investing a combined $20+ bn in LCD technology. In addition to posters/pictures, soon people will have their photo's on the wall!!
Actually, I am already enjoying my digital pictuires better as they serve as screen saver on my trading station (with 4 flat panels).

Now, will that all have an impact on demand for silver. Of course not!

I enjoyed reading your site. Hope he keeps up the the good work.
 
 
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