Best Thread Silver!

Cheers for the insightful comment - is that on the M5.2156834679 t/f chart?

You cld argue its in an up trend (and has been since late '08) if you're looking at a weekly chart. The massive support level and confluence with the UTL on the weekly is c2630 level. If it pops through here then there's a lot of space below imo.

You may want to look at higher t/f charts, or you may not.

G/l.
 
2008 trendline.

Silver.JPG
 
Wonder if we will see a weakening market thanks to short covering?

The whole endless will they, won't they QE debate continues to drive me nuts (should stop having Bloomberg on during day). It seems it is all the financial world can talk about.

Lower inflation expectation- more QE?
More Europe problems- more QE?
Weaker economic data- more QE?
Stocks have a one day sell-off- more QE?

Just shoot me.


Silver.JPG
 
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Hi everyone,

In my opinion the risk/reward is better now if you go long:

The Commitments of Traders data last week showed that all market participants (Commercials, Large Speculators and Small Speculators) are at extreme levels. The COT Index for Commercials is showing 94%, Small Speculators are very pessimistic about the market.

Large Speculators are still net long, so the Long-term trend is still pointing upwards.

Have a nice day,
Dunstan
 

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This is what long liquidation looks like, cos the totally inaccurate ADP job numbers mean there ain't gonna be no more QE yet innit:rolleyes:

Silver.JPG
 
I think silver must be near the end of the consolidation phase now. This fall should be very profitable if you are long silver. A bit of QE could help a lot of course!!:D
 
Interesting friday.

The chart below ( showing the past week) has arrows where stops were likely run. Someone made a nice bit of beer money for the weekend. I was watching it at the 28.20 level and was almost certain of what was going to happen.

SilverStops.png
 
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Resistance at the 28.40 level is weakening. We're finding more acceptance closer to this level than the June lows so the odds favour and upside breakout rather than downside below 26.

The previous breakout from this type of formation in early June was rejected and we saw new lows. The same could well be true if we fail again.

Should note too that Silver is in backwardation.

silver1.png
 
YouAreNotFree said:
Today we broke out on well above recent average volume. If this move fails, watch out below.

View attachment 143122
Click to expand...

Not sure if I agree on the volume being above average as the 50 day EMA average on my SI chart is 36,393, and today's preliminary volume from the CME site was 31,961. So it was below average on my charts. However, I do believe that Silver broke out of the year long downtrend last week and I personally went long on the 14th Aug at 27.987, with a stop at 24.98 as I think it's reached a significant point, as it's at the confluence of the longer term four year uptrend line and the year old downtrend line.

The other major factor for me is that August is typically the seasonal low point for silver, as it's strong correlation with Gold means that when the large amount of physical demand begins in August/September for the Indian wedding season - which makes up a larger percentage of the gold market than investment demand I believe - then the precious metals tend to move higher.

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I'm only looking at the US session volume over this August holiday, dead-as-a-doornail period. I'm not a longer term trader, just day trading but with top down analysis. I saw 28.40 ish as a high risk level.
 
YouAreNotFree said:
I'm only looking at the US session volume over this August holiday, dead-as-a-doornail period. I'm not a longer term trader, just day trading but with top down analysis. I saw 28.40 ish as a high risk level.
Click to expand...

Fair enough. I only medium term swing trade the precious metals with top down analysis, and so look at very long term charts. But I pay particular attention around this time of year due to them being demand lead commodities, as the supply is fairly constant year round. So the seasonal demand factors are important to know imo, even if you're just day trading them.
 
Cracker of a breakout.

Silver.png

Spent Friday balancing (inside day-I'm looking at the US session). It will be interesting to see where we open tomorrow, in or out of balance that is. I'll go with the breakout should there be one, whichever way. If it fails, I'll go with that too. It doesn't like like this short term upward auction is over yet, we have no excess, and of course the direction of late is up, and strongly at that. I have an upside ref of 31.08 and downside of 29.90 beyond these last few days activity.

In 3 of the last 4 days the low of the day has been set literally within a few mins of the open. Needless to say I have had one of my best weeks this year.

silver1.png
 
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Good trading today. Straight out from balance at session open (US sessions are far right, 3rd and 5th in from right hand side). Another opportunity at Thursdays high if you missed. Then a one hour balance right at the 31.08 level I highlighted yesterday. After it broke that balance to the downside having failing to test the Europe highs, it was straight down for the rest of the day.

Silver.png

As we re-entered the Friday balancing day we should normally look for a destination trade of Fridays low, but I don't hold overnight.
 
A heads up, Silver currently going for more than 2% below spot on Bullionvault.

I've been hovering up for the full value of my account and then selling an equivalent amount in the market. Easy money.

EDIT. Seems it's over. Some of the inefficiencies in the BV market are mental. I once posted about picking up nearly 10k worth of Gold for 10% below spot. You would be surprised how often, although mostly in Silver, opportunities like this occur.
 
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YouAreNotFree said:
A heads up, Silver currently going for more than 2% below spot on Bullionvault.

I've been hovering up for the full value of my account and then selling an equivalent amount in the market. Easy money.

EDIT. Seems it's over. Some of the inefficiencies in the BV market are mental. I once posted about picking up nearly 10k worth of Gold for 10% below spot. You would be surprised how often, although mostly in Silver, opportunities like this occur.
Click to expand...

Do you do an trading on Bullionvault? I've been interested in giving it a go for a long time, but wasn't sure about how buying the physical is taxed etc?
 
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