Silver

[bgold]

Silver reversal on the cards?

Arguments FOR a reversal are:
1. Fib 38% retracement from April decline,
2. Silver seasonally very weak between end July- mid aug (see chart)
3. Hit GANN resistance lines (?),
4. Silverstocks (HL, PAAS, CDE) act rather sluggish

Arguments against:
1. In uptrend since May,
2. Bull flag pattern on the daily chart atgetting 6.90-7.00'ish (fib 505 retracement)
3. weak USD,
4. a bit far fetch if argued that silver is industrial metal, than one would not want to see strong copper stocks which are rallying and continue to look bullish.

As always, keen to hear your views.

 

[minx]

The fib level does seem to be good resistance, however, we may be at the beginning of an uptrend, however small. I say this because of the break of the top trendline (3 down arrows) and the rising bottom line, HH-HL's. Personally I wouldn't be getting long until i had more confirmation that we aren't going to break to the downside. For this I'd like to see the 38% level break and macd to start widening. On your elliot waves the red line way broken by W4, does this mean W4 isnt a good wave or does it relate to W3? If it points to a bad W4 we may continue higher or even get a recount..... not an expert on elliot my any measure though.....
Hope this has been some help!

 

[bgold]

The fib level does seem to be good resistance, however, we may be at the beginning of an uptrend, however small. I say this because of the break of the top trendline (3 down arrows) and the rising bottom line, HH-HL's. Personally I wouldn't be getting long until i had more confirmation that we aren't going to break to the downside. For this I'd like to see the 38% level break and macd to start widening. On your elliot waves the red line way broken by W4, does this mean W4 isnt a good wave or does it relate to W3? If it points to a bad W4 we may continue higher or even get a recount..... not an expert on elliot my any measure though.....
Hope this has been some help!

Would agree with your TA assessment. In this count, W4 perhaps not very reliable considering the very brief and sharp W2 correction.
Perhaps this is (as perma bears argue) a correction of new downtrend from April highs. Pattern can clearly be counted as an ABC correction. In that case, the B top can be anywhere between current 660 and 720'ish. Gap after W2 may be filled.
If so, the ABC zigzag target will be sub 500 later this year.

 

[minx]

Well silver broke out only to retrace back to previous resistance. Will this hold? Its been quite a good level and matches the 25%Fib level from the previous large fall. Will we break higher or are we just churning........