Best Thread Silver!

I'm with you guys on silver (and gold). I primarily trade FX but I do buy physical metals when they're on sale. The best buying opportunities are always at the height of pessimism. Everyone will say you are crazy and will even go so far as to insult you, but all you have to do is point to the historical record and you are vindicated without even trying. And if they try and somehow tell you that you are wrong, then they only look the fool. Gold hasn't gone from $20 to where it is today for no reason, same with silver, and hell, the stock market too. As long as we have an inflationary economy you will never be punished in the long term for buying when there's blood in the streets. Even when metals enter another prolonged bear market like they did from the early 80's to 2000 (or so), you can bet your sweet be-hind I'll be watching for the bottom to come, and I'll be adding ferociously to my holdings. Same for when the stock market takes another crap. I'll be buying my favorite blue chips on sale. Same logic. Fortune favors the bold, and patience is key when it comes to long term investing. For a quick buck there's trading, but for building wealth over the years you need a different approach entirely, and you need to know when to be a contrarian. :devilish:
 
Some covering on Friday given the poor jobs news. Upside refs I'm watching are 28.06-28.17 which is a May future pit session gap and the bottom of that painful 5 week range at 28.32.

Even if the news had been better than expected, covering was likely. At these kind of levels swing traders and shorter term guys will cover and let serious money determine if we trade below this long term range. They can then re-establish short positions below with less risk.

I expect to see a test of that 21 breakout level in 2014. I will be there with open arms and orders at the ready.
 
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This is interesting, found here.

Silver+COT.png
 
That's a large inventory imbalance that needs correcting.

It's no surprise that it's at an extreme, just look at the chart. An imbalance like that it going to make it very difficult to break through 26 in the immediate future. We'll have a much better chance when we are not so short.
 
Retail investor dumpathon continues unabated from what I can see. The change in sentiment compared to the last three times we were at 26/27 is astonishing.

US econ data has been quietly missing over and over these past few weeks. This next few months will be very interesting.
 
There's just been some panicky liquidation before the pit open. Just what you want to see when we are already so short at this range low.

Maybe this time will be different, but if we go straight through 26 in this next few weeks, I will eat my own socks and post the video on YouTube.
 
Joules MM1 said:
modern lyrics, old song...."the market can stay irrational longer than......."
Click to expand...

I'd like to know what that was on Friday. As short as we are, if people are going to puke, they're going to puke. I certainly didn't see that coming so soon.

Love, love loving it though, they've been puking their guts our on Bullionvault this weekend. I'm talking Gold at 10% below fridays close. Silver at 7% below. Free money, no skill required (unless you believe they will gap down Sunday night by those amounts- I don't.)
 
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YouAreNotFree said:
I'd like to know what that was on Friday. As short as we are, if people are going to puke, they're going to puke. I certainly didn't see that coming so soon.

Love, love loving it though, they've been puking their guts our on Bullionvault this weekend. I'm talking Gold at 10% below fridays close. Silver at 7% below. Free money, no skill required (unless you believe they will gap down Sunday night by those amounts- I don't.)
Click to expand...

a trend already in motion, any underlying reason to sell is in-line with that trend, the news and functions are commensurate......

be nimble jack
 
Here is my proprietary analysis of the current Silver market....


silver.jpg

Of course I bought some Gold recently at 1550ish to maintain my small insurance position, but I couldn't care less that its tanking. I welcome any fall in pms.
 
the small posies are the ones that destroy an account

if you welcome them, they will come.....no matter how much caring you put into them
 
silver v gold

Gold Losses Pale Beside Silver

excerpt
Wilson said:
As the CHART OF THE DAY illustrates, silver for immediate delivery tumbled 53 percent from its April 2011 closing high of $48.44 an ounce through yesterday. Gold was higher throughout most of this period. The chart compares spot prices for the metals in the top panel.
Click to expand...
 
hello. in my previous message we were near to 29-30dollars and i was asking "can we see 26 dollars on silver or are we missing buying opportunity?" and we're now at 23. I saw one silver analysis and I think it's very crazy analysis. I wanted to share it.

HE SAYS 12 dollars for silver. ı saw someone else saying 16 dollars, but 12 dollars is very crazy number.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PE63rpZDp7g/UXEPeeIi2LI/AAAAAAAAZgs/SJGt2wU6nB0/s1600/silver_w1.gif

it seems this year usd index will go to 83 85 or more. and it can take silver to down.
cyprus did not sell any gold and here is the price. fed did not stop qe3 and here is the price.
if cyprus decides to sell some gold and fed stops qe3 everyone says we can see 1250 dollars for gold.

what do you think for this analysis? 12 dollars is very crazy number huh?
 
emirfas1 said:
12 dollars is very crazy number huh?
Click to expand...

not really...there is no absolute mechanism for fair value, the price is set by the demand at that time and currently the auction is experiencing more supply plus short selling kicking in

the question tends to show that you need a method to trade silver and youre prob oversized (long) on the trade and your method should tell you where to sell, hang or buy....price can go to any extreme because that's where the current auction price is finding it's "value" .....price value is always someones else's idea not yours and price can range in a wide band relative to it's yearly climb...."crazy" being a non-mathematical suggestion there are a lot of places where "crazy" would fit very well (for example The Long Term Silver Chart Predicting $200 Silver by 2018! | Max Keiser )

everything is relative, just look at a long term chart (for example Silver Futures Chart - Long-Term Commodity Chart ) at what point was the price
"crazy" at the last largest swing?....

have your trading set-up get you to exit and enter based on price rather than expressionism
:)
 
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