should i exit

In actual fact I was hoping that the share price would reverse and I was wrong. I leared that now, emotions and fear is counterproductive for a trader. But now I do not know what to do honestly, because two other members here avised me to stay based on the reasons given earlier. I can keep my money in, if there is a chance of reversal in the next 3 months. This market is highly manipulated and company performance has very little to do with the ups and downs.

The chairman who passed away belong to a well know family and has several other business in the Saudi Kingdom,they would not let down if there is any link to fundamentals. If no, then there has to be a reversal.

Yes I would like to know long term perspectives of such investment, if the tech indicators for the past 2 years indicate a pattern of reversal, I would rather not sell now.

Every one has actually advided me to sell , so as you see I am not dictating here, and I really value your comments.

I am going to post another thread where I will actually ask your advise before entering the trade.

Cheers

wackypete2 said:
I would like to make the following counter statements:

1. You don't know what you are doing.
a) You are basing your fundamental analysis on a remark from someone who works for the company, and you think they will announce a new chairman soon (could be weeks or could be tomorrow, you don't know).

b) You want technical reasons why you should exit now despite being down 30% and missing all the previous exit signals.

2. You had no intention of exiting. You hoped everyone would agree that you should stay in and validate your incorrect thinking.

------------------------------

If you are driving to grandma's house and you make a mistake and take a wrong turn do you just keep going and hope you will eventually get there or do you correct your mistake by turning around or changing course?

If you wife asks your to buy a new toaster and you get a toaster oven by mistake do you just say oh well maybe she won't notice or do you go back to the mart and try to exchange it for the correct item?

Mistakes in life happen everyday. Generally we try to fix them. Trading is no different.

Peter
Click to expand...
 
What's the point is creating a thread to get views on your future trades? You are assuming people here actually know anything. That is mostly not the case and for every person that says buy another one will say don't buy. It's getting you nowhere.
 
Thanks for your advise. I bought 2000 shares at 156. When price fell to 129, I got frustreaded and place a sell for 138. What happened was that my sell order went partially and remained 1500 shares. I should have known at that point that the stock lacks interest and should have sold the remaining at the next day price which was i recokon 125, but I did not (human emotions overtook my mind) and am then trapped. FYI 1 US$ = 3.75 SAR and the prices in y asix are SAR

Tomorrow there is an IPO and i noticed at the time of new IPO, other share prices fell and if say after a few days, this stock goes further so that I will lose 50%. I will have no option but to sell.

Cheers

Lightning McQueen said:
if i may post in the defence of the op m'lud.

with exit points missed at around 170 and 150, and with the stock currently priced at 110 and clearly holding at support around the 110 at present. also with clear expected support indicated at 100, there are opportunities to stay in the trade and look for a bounce around these levels. i'd put a stop in at about 85 and look to buy back in at around 65 to 70.

well easy for me to say i'm not the one holding the baby.

good luck Oraclefusions.

btw how much money is riding on this? big bucks? or chump change??
Click to expand...
 
..None of the those who asked me to exit, have actually provided me ample proof..
Click to expand...

We don't need to as you have already stated that this was a mistake and yet you are still holding the position. The technical reasons to hold the trade are irrelevant if you have lost more than would have been acceptable to you before taking the position.

One thing is certain and that is if you are listening to advice from employees of the company you are doomed as the market has already priced this into the stock.

It appears that what you are wanting is people to give you reasons to stay in the position. Every decent trader I know of ignores advice of others and makes their own decisions.
 
The company's business appears sound. They reported 500% profit increase in october. But the big players knew it and in it long before you came along. So, my guess is they are taking profits and knocking the price down to buy some more. If they are aggressive, they might even push it down to as far as 70. There's unlikely a profit for you in the near term. Hold it for life could work. The Chairman's death is not relevant for this price play. The play is on noobs piling on board for the 500% profit increase. Like I already mentioned: shooting fish in a barrel.

I'd buy this stock once it starts to trend upwards.
 
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Oracle

There is no technical indicator or analysis that is going to predict with any certainty that the price will recover nor give you the proof that you seem to want that it will go down further. It will go up or down from here.

It follows that your decision now is less about the share and more about your money. Are you going to be certain you can live to fight another day by securing the money you have left (ie: selling now)? Or are you prepared to risk more - if so how much? Or, if you are lucky enough to get a bounce, how are you going to manage that? Or are you just going to close your eyes to it and live in hope that it will eventually get back to where you started?

Like many, you may be feeling that you have a paper loss and that it is not "real" until you cash in. Believe me, it is real right now.

jon
 
OxfordStrat said:
Exit. Plus if you do not know your exit point at the entry, you should not even enter.
Click to expand...

what is it with everyone and exit? the stock is currently still in an uptrend. the trade is good. ok, granted the chosen entry point was a little off and stank a bit :whistling
 
Some one posted to me that what is the point of creating a thread to know the future price. Well every one knows that you cant predict the price. The mistake I did was I chased the stock to bottom, rather than it comes to me (like what Joe said, he would buy it when it reaches bottom).
I posted this thread on here to learn from all of you, not to just say exit or enter.
What I learned so far or witnessed is the following:

1. Cnadlestick patters did not work 50% or more. When there is bullish engul or a hammer, next day the stock falls down further. Likewise three black crows should be bearish but i have seen many times atleast in this market (( for everones info, this is TASI of saudi arabia), that it produced remarkable bullish the next days.

2. As for the tech indicators, they all lag terribly. They will work on back date as if you will beleive what you want to . But as soon as you enter the market, you feel as some one is actually witing for you to buy and then nothing works as you planned except for a few success/.

3. Some of my friends invested and they win and lose . but say after trading a year, if they gain 10-20% ,. there wud be many other options like real estate to get that roi (in dubai for example, I am getting 9% ROI and it was 18% back in 2008 before the crash). So whats the point? I enter into this trade to be able to make some side money like 1000 $ a fortnigt. But it dragged me like an addiction and now am stuck.

4. I would like to learn from you or any one willing to provide coaching.

Cheers
 
Shakone said:
Up trend? Hasn't it dropped 50% in the last months?
Click to expand...

yes it has dropped as you say, but the longer term upward trend is still intact, just.

the area around 110 is holding for now, if that goes and also 100 is bust through then it is no longer valid and its over. see my posted chart.
 
Lightning McQueen said:
the area around 110 is holding for now
Click to expand...

I don't understand why you think it's holding when it is in the middle of a vertical fall. I'd call it a hold if it starts to go side ways for a couple of months.

The 2 year trend is up. If the OP bought 2 years ago, he would still be up 400%-500% at the current price.
 
BeginnerJoe said:
I don't understand why you think it's holding when it is in the middle of a vertical fall. I'd call it a hold if it starts to go side ways for a couple of months.

The 2 year trend is up. If the OP bought 2 years ago, he would still be up 400%-500% at the current price.
Click to expand...

it's actually stopped falling, paused around the 110 area and in fact gone up slightly, so at this point in time that counts as a support area holding. plus there's a stronger area of support below at 100 as a safety net. that is why i maintain the exit advice at this point in time to be flawed, if there's no bounce from here the op wont have lost that much more than he already has.

zulu wouldn't have been much of a film if michael caine and his thin red line had done a runner for the exit.
 
Lightning McQueen said:
yes it has dropped as you say, but the longer term upward trend is still intact, just.

the area around 110 is holding for now, if that goes and also 100 is bust through then it is no longer valid and its over. see my posted chart.
Click to expand...

Well when something has dropped 50% of its entire value in a matter of months, I wouldn't be too confident in saying it is in an uptrend. Of course you can define trend between any two points in time, so I understand that, but if it is to be useful, then it also has to be sensible and relevant to the trade. He bought not that long ago, and is already in a mess and looking for help on the forum, therefore, his timeframe does not appear to be 20 years from now.

It's not clear whether it is holding at 110, it has paused there. It's clear it has been going down heavily for some time. Technically, you mention there is possible support around 100, and possible support around 70. Is it not likely to test at least one of these levels? And if it is likely, holding at 110 doesn't make sense.
 
Shakone said:
Well when something has dropped 50% of its entire value in a matter of months, I wouldn't be too confident in saying it is in an uptrend. Of course you can define trend between any two points in time, so I understand that, but if it is to be useful, then it also has to be sensible and relevant to the trade. He bought not that long ago, and is already in a mess and looking for help on the forum, therefore, his timeframe does not appear to be 20 years from now.

It's not clear whether it is holding at 110, it has paused there. It's clear it has been going down heavily for some time. Technically, you mention there is possible support around 100, and possible support around 70. Is it not likely to test at least one of these levels? And if it is likely, holding at 110 doesn't make sense.
Click to expand...

of course 110 makes sense, there's a clear support line there and the price has reacted at that area, the fact that there is stronger support not far below strengthens 110 somewhat. 100 or bust? it will be interesting to see what happens next, perhaps not for the op, he likely will have no fingernails left already.
 
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