should i exit

[Oraclefusions]

I made a mistake a month ago and bought shares during a strong downtrend. I am not at a loss as to what should I do? Should I sell and come out or wait for reversal which I am waiting but not happeningI bought this symbol at 156 and its current price is hovering around 110. How can i predict it will ever come back?
Perhaps I will come out and accept the loss and use the raminig money to trade others else even if it comes back to 156, its goona take a time. the fact is that it came down from 156 sharply and it is known to be very volatile.I have marked with circle where I bought it.
One piece of info., The day I bought this share, I missed one findamental news (which was announced the prev day) that the Chairman of this company dies and till date, there is no announcment.
It is an an insurance company whose parent is ACE Group.
Cheers

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Well, they have a whole bunch of people trapped. They will trap some more when they engineer a quick bounce at some point. The stock isn't going to recover until most of those trapped cough up what they have bitten into, at a significant loss. It's anyone's guess how much lower they will move it in order to shoot the fishes in the barrel.

If the company's business hasn't deteriorated, the stock will recover. If you know for certain there is no change to the company's business environment, you can pretend to be warren buffet and hold it for life. Loss taking is best done early. But you are past that point.

 

[Oraclefusions]

Well, they have a whole bunch of people trapped. They will trap some more when they engineer a quick bounce at some point. The stock isn't going to recover until most of those trapped cough up what they have bitten into, at a significant loss. It's anyone's guess how much lower they will move it in order to shoot the fishes in the barrel.

If the company's business hasn't deteriorated, the stock will recover. If you know for certain there is no change to the company's business environment, you can pretend to be warren buffet and hold it for life. Loss taking is best done early. But you are past that point.

What you said makes sense, and there is no change in the companys biz and my guess is the same, stock is hihly manipulated and it seems that they are doing as you said.
By the way there is a curve up at dec 15 closing as you seen (but i expect further decline, it might be a very small pull back).
Just to understand something here, I just daw Fibonacci Fans and also notices a bullish harami(notice last two candles), would this means it will bounce back /retrace back until it hits first resistance at 61.8% which is value of 128? How reliable is this fib fans?

cheers

 

[Trader333]

In trading it is quite simple, if the trade is not working then exit immediately. To do anything else is pinned on hope and that is the way to ruin. Learn from the mistake, don't repeat it and most important of all is not to look back. The reason is that if you exit and the trade then would have made a profit or reduced your loss then it will give you what is called "negative reinforcement" which in time will cause you to consistently lose.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

there is a curve up at dec 15

No, that's not the bounce. It's yet to come. It will be a size such that it will induce you to pile in some more to average down. Then they will hold you hostage for a couple of years at least if you decide to tough it out.

 

[tradewell12]

buying stocks is owning a part of a business. you wouldn't start your own business, without being completely knowledgeable would you?

how knowledgeable do you feel about what this company does and how knowledgeable are you about the stock market, and entire financial market as a whole? - if you read enough books about stocks and finance, you'll know the answer yourself.

 

[Oraclefusions]

Thanks for the replies. One suggests to exit and never repeat the same mistake and move on. Another suggests to keep it as long as it takes because it will bounce back, and lastly one recommend to know more about the company etc.
TASI is a volatile market, and I was speakin to one of the person who works in that company and he said that the company is unaffcted by the falling price because, the company went ipo 3 years back and got the money needed, it is the investors who are now playing such that they made such high and low swings in short periods , this re enforces the comments made by beginnerJoe that this is a planned price down operation. I have forget about the money and hope it will bounce back maybe in march, hence am not selling.
Cheers

 

[wackypete2]

You are playing with fire in a game you know nothing about.

Peter

 

[Oraclefusions]

You are playing with fire in a game you know nothing about.

Peter

Well I appreciate your reply. I am here to learn. Everyone makes mistakes.
Your statement is rather rude but I guess its me who gave you this right to say that.
Cheers

 

[Oraclefusions]

No, that's not the bounce. It's yet to come. It will be a size such that it will induce you to pile in some more to average down. Then they will hold you hostage for a couple of years at least if you decide to tough it out.

Trying to pm you, says I have to have 15 posts. Would you pm me instead so I can reply Please?

 

[wackypete2]

Well I appreciate your reply. I am here to learn. Everyone makes mistakes.
Your statement is rather rude but I guess its me who gave you this right to say that.
Cheers

It wasn't meant to be rude, but you really need to learn more before you continue to try trading. Exit your trade and save what money you have left from it until you understand better how the markets work.

Peter

 

[pboyles]

Trying to pm you, says I have to have 15 posts. Would you pm me instead so I can reply Please?

Get out of the trade and don't trade again until you know what you're doing. It seems like you are only listening to what you want to hear. If you're seeking advice from Beginner Joe then you're in trouble.

 

[brewski1984]

All but one person is telling you to close the trade. Hope isn't a strategy.

 

[Lightning McQueen]

All but one person is telling you to close the trade. Hope isn't a strategy.

i was going to join the not sell yet brigade, i know that's just me and joe at the moment. last night i nearly made a post, with chart, to make a point that it isn't over quite yet. chart was lost in the making i will endeavor to find the lost chart and to make a case that selling right now is mistaken advice.

the op is in a really deep hole already, the advice to sell would have been right and prudent earlier in the stocks initial fall, but isn't really valid now. there is very strong support not far from current prices, op has not much more to lose at all to see if the stock can hold support and recover. the stock is still in a long term uptrend that is as yet unbroken, though i concede it is on the edge of fail, it will not cost the op much more than he already has lost to find out. has anybody actually looked?

 

[brewski1984]

I haven't actually looked to be honest, I assumed maybe wrongly that as the OP didn't know what to do he is trading without a plan.

 

[Lightning McQueen]

I haven't actually looked to be honest, I assumed maybe wrongly that as the OP didn't know what to do he is trading without a plan.

you're right i believe, that there was no plan. it doesn't look that way anyway, as many get out points have passed already, whereby the trade has proven itself wrong but the op did nothing, has now panicked and posted asking for advice.

 

[Oraclefusions]

As much as I would like to listen and learn from all of you, however I would liketo make the following statements.

1. None of the those who asked me to exit, have actually provided me ample proof on technical grounds (patterns/indicators) except the fundamental news tha tthe chairmain died, yet I know the company is not impacted in the market and this is most likely temp and they should announce the new chairmain(its been a week of no-news from that company). So in order for me to learn, I need to be convined with logical reasoning.

2. The stock is highly volatile. I bought the stock on dec 1st. While notice the valatility of this stock for last one month.

The volatile nature is in my favour....

3. I would like to know from tech indicators or if some one ask me to produce or draw a diff kind of indicators in order to predict the future price action both in and against. Perpaps I will sell short after it has moved up. Maybe it will never reach the price on which I bought it, but at least to reduce my loss.

4. I have read a couple of books for example from Steve nison and have also traded for 2 months with a virtual account. Yes I made a blunder in bying this stock when it was in a downtrend.

5. Would any one of you willing to provide online teaching to me at a reasonable price, do let me know

Today's end of day graph and a weekly charting ending at doji.

weekly
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Cheers

 

[wackypete2]

I would like to make the following counter statements:

1. You don't know what you are doing.
a) You are basing your fundamental analysis on a remark from someone who works for the company, and you think they will announce a new chairman soon (could be weeks or could be tomorrow, you don't know).

b) You want technical reasons why you should exit now despite being down 30% and missing all the previous exit signals.

2. You had no intention of exiting. You hoped everyone would agree that you should stay in and validate your incorrect thinking.

------------------------------

If you are driving to grandma's house and you make a mistake and take a wrong turn do you just keep going and hope you will eventually get there or do you correct your mistake by turning around or changing course?

If you wife asks your to buy a new toaster and you get a toaster oven by mistake do you just say oh well maybe she won't notice or do you go back to the mart and try to exchange it for the correct item?

Mistakes in life happen everyday. Generally we try to fix them. Trading is no different.

Peter

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Trying to pm you, says I have to have 15 posts. Would you pm me instead so I can reply Please?

No need to pm. Open discussion is good for all. Perhaps others can learn too.

I didn't say not selling. I was saying you were past the point where selling would have saved you a lot of trouble.

Prices go down, and they go up, and they go down, and they go up. Nobody knows for sure when it will happen. One thing is for sure, you are trapped in a market play. They are not going to let you out of the trap easily. You can gamble for a bounce and run away then.

 

[Lightning McQueen]

if i may post in the defence of the op m'lud.

with exit points missed at around 170 and 150, and with the stock currently priced at 110 and clearly holding at support around the 110 at present. also with clear expected support indicated at 100, there are opportunities to stay in the trade and look for a bounce around these levels. i'd put a stop in at about 85 and look to buy back in at around 65 to 70.

well easy for me to say i'm not the one holding the baby.

good luck Oraclefusions.

btw how much money is riding on this? big bucks? or chump change??