Shorting the markets on Mon 10/5/10?

[bigal60]

I'm a complete novice so please forgive me if this is a naive/ridiculous question...

The way things are looking politically this weekend it's a reasonable bet that the markets may have another grim day tomorrow. If so would it be sensible to open a short contract on virtually any European index, notwithstanding the huge amount of 'slippage' this would probably incur? Just a thought from a complete beginner....

 

[Pi3141]

I'm a complete novice so please forgive me if this is a naive/ridiculous question...

The way things are looking politically this weekend it's a reasonable bet that the markets may have another grim day tomorrow. If so would it be sensible to open a short contract on virtually any European index, notwithstanding the huge amount of 'slippage' this would probably incur? Just a thought from a complete beginner....

The markets *may* fall on Monday, but then again they may not - thats why you should always trade what you see, not what you think.

 

[bigal60]

Thanks for that advice - I think I'll just sit on my hands and see how things develop...

BigAl

 

[bigal60]

Well it's looking like the markets might have a better day today, we'll see. Probably wait a few days and see if any sort of trend develops..

 

[dealer911]

Well it's looking like the markets might have a better day today, we'll see. Probably wait a few days and see if any sort of trend develops..

Markets have gaped higher on this European bail out fund - was a pretty good co-ordinated effort from Europe! - not sure these high levels will hold - my advice would be to keep very small positions and try and pick extreme levels to trade - I am shorting here myself (FTSE +3%)

 

[pboyles]

Does anyone know what the biggest gap up has been on the FTSE, todays looks massive, around 200 points.

 

[meanreversion]

Where is this E500mio coming from? How does it change anything, or is it simply a statement that Europe's overriding priority is to ensure that speculators occasionally get their fingers burned?

 

[meanreversion]

billion not million sorry

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Comes from EU "surplus funds" apparently. Isn't a bond repurchase meant to help stabilise rates?

 

[Splitlink]

I'm a complete novice so please forgive me if this is a naive/ridiculous question...

The way things are looking politically this weekend it's a reasonable bet that the markets may have another grim day tomorrow. If so would it be sensible to open a short contract on virtually any European index, notwithstanding the huge amount of 'slippage' this would probably incur? Just a thought from a complete beginner....

I think a lot of people thought as you did but I have learned to be surprised.....

I went long on FT and US tech this morning at 0820 when FT broke out upwards. So far so good but one cannot be sure. I just go on what the short term chart tells me and keep my stops as close as possible.



Have a good day and don't chase anything, it can turn on a dime.

1043- I'm all out now.

 

[meanreversion]

Surplus funds? Do they have any? Surely the only real solution is for them to print more money, but I can't see the Germans acceeding to that.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Surplus funds? Do they have any? Surely the only real solution is for them to print more money, but I can't see the Germans acceeding to that.

Dunno where it's coming from but that was the term I saw in some article last night. This is costing/will cost Germany anyway money printing or no. They'll probably just bang out a few loans at EBC+x% against bunds or something as and when Greek and Portugal matures.

I don't see why they don't just guarantee eurozone bonds and absorb the shortfall (i.e. the diff between par value and would be restructure value) on bonds <5 years and pay up according to share of eurozone GDP. Implement austerity measures and limit issuance of PIGS until the defecit comes down.

All this pussyfooting around the word default just means that when the word finally hits the newswires the effects will be even worse and they'll have no back up plan.

Thats my daily amateur take on geopolitical macroeconmics anyway lol.

Now back to making some double digit to my no1 charity... US light

 

[meanreversion]

I don't think people realise exactly how strongly the Germans feel about inflation. For them, inflation is the reason Hitler ended up coming to power. And now, they're going to turn on the printing press (and possibly allow inflation) to bail out the Greeks? There are going to be ructions in Germany before too long.

As an "outside of the box" idea I reckon Germany could leave the euro within a year.

 

[dealer911]

Where is this E500mio coming from? How does it change anything, or is it simply a statement that Europe's overriding priority is to ensure that speculators occasionally get their fingers burned?

they are going to have to print it!! - I think it was mainly the European way of saying we will defend the Euro and we will not allow a member state to fail - it was a message to the market - at least with TARP the money took the assets off bank balance sheets and some of the liquidity went to home owners and businesses (not much of it) the rest found it's way to riskier asset classes (equities) - this european version the money doesnt really flow to anyone - big cut backs, tax hikes - bigest waste of money ever!

 

[meanreversion]

it's amazing. in the space of a weekend, true european monetary union has evolved. this is what was missing the whole time. Obviously no-one ever voted for it or wanted it, but it was the inevitable evolution.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Still wont work.

 

[meanreversion]

no it won't, due to several factors, not least of all the incompatibility of countries within the eurozone. but add to that high unemployment, an ageing population and a severe democracy deficit, it's a fairly combustible mix.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Am I missing something or are these structural reforms starting to resemble a type of communism between governments lol.

 

[meanreversion]

There's something very sinister going on.

What's the betting that Brown gets some sort of Euro role when he (finally) leaves no. 10?

Don't forget the EU's auditors have not signed off on their accounts for the last 15 years. This is a fully fledged dictatorship now.

 

[Black Swan]

Schmucks...

Twas only a matter of time before the EU did a Tarp type/Q.E. style rescue, massive liquidity pumped into the system, bank debts guaranteed and the markets and certain currencies *stabilise*. We've now reached the stage were the new money is being created to bail out or avoid sovereign debt crises, plural...Fook me, it's so messed up you'd need another dictionary from another universe to describe this utter madness...

Money, as we know it, is failing big time. These debts, present and yet to materialise, are IMHO actually now past the point of no return, they're simply too big to socialise on to us dumb schmucks...

I'll bet (if any one had the time to dig and delve) the crackpot gathering of the great and good of the EU broke every monetary and fiscal rule in the book last night...not good...