Shorting the Dow again.. short at 16,000 \o/

Doomberg

Established member
960 75
Here we are again, at the highest point ever and at a quadruple top. I have shorted... who's with me :clap:

Tight stop at 16047, may extend if the quadruple top fails.
 

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wackypete2

Legendary member
10,229 2,054
I'm very tempted. Now that 16000 is broken it's likely we get a test of the last swing low about 15875 before moving higher. I have to admit though, I'm too nervous about this strong bull market to short it right now even if it means kicking myself later. For my own sanity it's better to be safe than sorry. lol

Call me chicken!

Peter
 

Doomberg

Established member
960 75
Come awwwn guwys, wyake up and smell tha Cwoffwe (my new york accent impression) haha :smart:
 
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Liquid validity

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I agree with Pete.
Looks like this is a long term trade.
There isn't what I would call significant resistance at 16000.
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?s...ddindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump

Last major resistance levels:
10500-11000 - 2004-2006
13500-14000 - May 07 - Dec 07
13000-13500 Mar 12 - Dec 12

Most recently:
15000-15500 May13 - Oct 13
That has now been broken

16K is an all time high with no sign of resistance.
It being a big round number and a new high don't mean resistance.
Basically its a bet that the FED are about to show some sign of sanity,
good luck with that one :)
Could go anywhere.
I'd rather bet on the house of cards collapsing when someone actually pulls
a card out, and not before.
 
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Just noticed you do have reasonably tight stop, so no harm in the short term I spose :)
As a short term trade - days / maybe weeks, worth the punt, can't fault that really.

In the short term, assuming it goes in your favour, I'd be watching price reaction to:
15940-15910 area, then
15880-15850 area

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?s...g=1&p=I:30&d=X&qb=1&style=technical&template=

Now watch it collapse to 3000 or burn through to 20k :LOL:
Just guesswork, I've no idea where its going, keep tight stops and you'll be OK :)
 
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wackypete2

Legendary member
10,229 2,054
Just noticed you do have reasonably tight stop, so no harm in the short term I spose :)
As a short term trade - days / maybe weeks, worth the punt, can't fault that really.

Anyone trying that shouldn't get too greedy though. Maybe target 80-100 points then get out. A problem is if today's action spills over into tomorrow the stop could easily be taken out 30 minutes after the open. The only way I'd take a very short term punt to the short (dark?) side is if the dow pops nice at open then quickly reverts back under 16000. Keep the stop tight, pick up a few points then go grab a beer!

Just my opinion.

Peter
 
L

Liquid validity

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Anyone trying that shouldn't get too greedy though. Maybe target 80-100 points then get out. A problem is if today's action spills over into tomorrow the stop could easily be taken out 30 minutes after the open. The only way I'd take a very short term punt to the short (dark?) side is if the dow pops nice at open then quickly reverts back under 16000. Keep the stop tight, pick up a few points then go grab a beer!

Just my opinion.

Peter

Its a good opinion, agree on likely first target areas as well :)
 
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Liquid validity

0 0
BTW Doomberg, the Australian Govt. previously completely opposed
to central bank intervention, are considering such measures.
Basically due to the actions of the FED.
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013...ders-precedent-setting-currency-intervention/

The only concrete sign of the FED ending bond purchasing will be when
they actually do it, anything else is just hot air to test market reaction.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/21/us-usa-fed-idUSBRE9AK1G220131121
 

darktone

Veteren member
3,986 1,041
Here we are again, at the highest point ever and at a quadruple top. I have shorted... who's with me :clap:
Good luck man, but I got to echo previous comments.
Why not keep your powder dry till we get some sign that the trend has changed then have a swing for -500.
What kinda move are you looking for btw?
 

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Trader333

Moderator
8,605 932
In my view at the moment this is new territory for the Dow and any short trade, (as things currently are) will be a pure punt. It is noticeable that we have had four daily attempts that have been resisted at really pushing through 16000 and although it closed above that for the first time the range for yesterday was inside that of the day before. One thing I think will happen is that it will retrace by at least 200 points but at the moment there is little that would want me to short it right now.
 

Doomberg

Established member
960 75
Hi guys, i have added to the position so it's now -£20 a point, i'll probably let it fall down to 15,000 before i close.

I wish :clap::clover::devilish:
 

Trader333

Moderator
8,605 932
Hmm, I think the market could easily go as high as 16,116 before any pullback and even if it does pullback before that it is unlikely to go below 15,550 initially in my view. It will be interesting either way.
 
 
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