Seeking consistency

[Leia]

EUR NZD long

both timeframe indicators are long
previous two daily candles indicate rejection of lower prices at this time (hammer type formations), off previous months resistance (potential support now)
price has retraced to 50% of the previous 4 hourly up swing and printed a hammer formation candle representing a 50% entry of the two daily candles

order placed long @ 1.59 35, stop 1.58 95 (risk -40pips), usual three targets
target 1 = R1 = +40pips @ 1.59 75
target 2 = prev swing high @ 1.60 60 (+125pips, R3)
target 3 = trailing stop behind 4 hour swing highs

If order is triggered and target 1 achieved, the stops on the remaining parts of the position will be moved to breakeven

 

[Leia]

Re: NZD and AUD USD counter trend orders

Both the daily and 4 hour trends are long
However both pairs posted daily trigger (shooting star type) candles on Friday, indicating rejection of higher prices at this time
As noted in my weekly look ahead post, NZD USD is at previous weekly resistance, which may add weight to taking a short position (AUD is at previous daily resistance)
I have entered orders to go short both of these pairs, against the prevailing trends on both of my time-frames, as both are far enough away from their 4 hourly 20ema's (elastic band theory, of re-tracement to the moving average when over extended) to allow me to achieve risk/reward of 1:1 (which is where I take a third of the risk off and move my stop to a breakeven position on the other two thirds). This is also at a higher price than I would be seeking a trigger 'long' to trade with the trend.

Orders are
NZD
entry 0.83 00, stop at 0.83 55 (risk -55pips), split into three parts
target 1 = R1 = 0.82 45
target 2 = recent daily resistance, potential support @ 0.81 50
target 3 trailing stop
AUD
entry 50% back into Fridays daily candle @ 1.05 70, stop 1.06 25 (risk -55 pips)
target 1 = R 1 = 1.05 15
target 2 = 1.04 00
target 3 trailing stop

Back in early September I noticed that this pair had reached previous weekly structure resistance and printed a daily 'rejection' candle that offered a counter trend short opportunity.
In-fact there were two offerings, both of which I traded for small (R1) profits, mt second two positions being stopped out for NIL
Having 'failed' twice, I didn't take the third daily trigger (whose high exceeded the previous two that I had traded, only to realise that its now surpassed T2 (of 150 pips R3)

 

[Leia]

Re: EUR NZD long

order placed long @ 1.59 35, stop 1.58 95 (risk -40pips), usual three targets
target 1 = R1 = +40pips @ 1.59 75
target 2 = prev swing high @ 1.60 60 (+125pips, R3)
target 3 = trailing stop behind 4 hour swing highs

Order opened and stop taken out in a few minutes for full loss on all three parts of this trade set up (-40 pips)

 

[Leia]

Re: watch list for week commencing October 22nd

I have 19 pairs on next weeks watch list (indicators consistent on Daily and 4 hour time frames at the moment)

short USD CHF 93 05 (93 65) 92 15, 90 50, 89 30
no trigger
long EUR USD 1.29 90 (1.28 90) 1.31 35, 1.32 75, 1.35 00
no trigger
long GBP USD 1.59 80 (1.59 10) 1.61 70, 1.63 00, 1.66 00
4H Xd short
long USD JPY 79.00 (78.60) 79.65, 80.60
broke up
long NZD USD 81 50 (81 10) 81 10, 82 20, 83 50
broke down
all of the above are indicating US dollar weakness and 'risk' on, which is far from the fundamental sentiment at the present time
long EUR GBP 80 95 (80 40) 81 40, 81 60, 82 20
broke down
long EUR NZD 1.59 35 (1.59 00) 1.60 50, 1.63 00, 1.65 00 (at level now, need trigger) broke down
long EUR AUD 1.26 15 (1.25 90) 1.27 30, 1.28 20, 1.30 00
broke down
long EUR JPY 1.02 20 (1.02 40) 1.04 10, 1.06 50
broke up
long EUR CAD - need a swing high on the 4hour chart
didn't take trigger offered. 4h now Xd short
long GBP CHF - need a swing high on the 4hour chart
broke up
long GBP CAD 1.58 10 ( 1.57 30) 1.59 45, 1.59 85, 1.60 80
see chart
long NZD JPY 64 50 (63 95) 65 20, 69 00
no retrace
long GBP JPY 1.26 50 ( 1.25 50) 1.28 20, 1.30 00, 1.31 70
no retrace
long CHF JPY 84.80 (84.20) 86.10, 87.60
no retrace, 4h now Xd short
long NZD CAD - need a swing high on the 4hour chart
no trigger
short CAD CHF - need a swing low on the 4hour chart
broke up to 100% retrace
short NZD CHF 76 00 (76 60) 75 30, 74 70, 73 00
no trigger
short AUD CHF 96 35 (96 60) 95 00, 94 40, 93 30
no trigger

A busy watch list but very little in the way of triggers.
With hindsight, only sound trigger was GBP CAD @ 1.58 25 (1.57 90). I didn't take it, but it hit target 3 about R7

 

[Leia]

watch list for week commencing October 29th

from 19 pairs to just 5
I think that helps to explain the lack of triggers from the 19 pairs on last weeks watch list, most have had movements against the aligned trends, resulting in the shorter timescale (4 hour) crossing in the opposite direction to the long term one (daily). Infact only two of the 19 are still on this weeks:
long GBP CAD 1.59 30 (1.59 00) 1.60 80, 1.61 75 (nice move last week)
long AUD JPY 82.50 (82.10) 83.45, 84.60
long NZD CAD 0.81 20 (0.81 00) 0.82 15, 0.82 60
long AUD CAD awaiting next 4 hour swing high, to draw fib levels
short AUD NZD 1.26 30 (1.26 65) 1.25 40, 1.23 70
It is non farm payroll week, which often has little movement, until publication , right at the end on Friday afternoon

 

[Leia]

GBP USD long

Both of my time-frame indicators are long
Price has retraced 61.8% of the previous weeks 4 hour move as well retested 50% level of the daily up move
A candle indicating rejection of lower prices at this time has printed offering an order entry:
1.60 60, stop 1.60 30 (risk -30pips) with three target levels
target 1 = R1 +30pips @ 1.60 90 (if opened and achieved, stops on remaining positions move to break even)
target 2 = 1.61 70 +140pips (R4), previous daily swing high
target 3 trailing stop behind 4hour swing lows as achieved

 

[Leia]

GBP JPY long

Pound Yen set up very similar to cable in the post above
Order to enter long placed @ 127.80, with stop at 126.90 (risk -90pips)
target 1 128.70 (R1, +90pips), if seen stops to breakeven on remaining two parts
target 2 129 60 (+180, R=2) @ previous daily swing high
target 3 trailing stop behind 4 hour swing lows

 

[Leia]

Re: GBP USD long

1.60 60, stop 1.60 30 (risk -30pips) with three target levels
target 1 = R1 +30pips @ 1.60 90 (if opened and achieved, stops on remaining positions move to break even)
target 2 = 1.61 70 +140pips (R4), previous daily swing high
target 3 trailing stop behind 4hour swing lows as achieved

Order removed as price has achieved target 2 without retracing to trigger entry level

 

[Leia]

Re: watch list for week commencing October 29th

hind sight review

long GBP CAD 1.59 30 (1.59 00) 1.60 80, 1.61 75 (nice move last week)
no pull back
long AUD JPY 82.50 (82.10) 83.45, 84.60
good levels, but no obvious trigger
long NZD CAD 0.81 20 (0.81 00) 0.82 15, 0.82 60
no pullback
long AUD CAD awaiting next 4 hour swing high, to draw fib levels
no pull back
short AUD NZD 1.26 30 (1.26 65) 1.25 40, 1.23 70
good levels, trigger printed not acted on
[/QUOTE]

 

[Leia]

watch list for week commencing November 5th

from 5 last week (one of which worked out, but I failed to execute) to 16 to watch for trigger price action signals this week:
short GOLD need a 4 hour swing low
short SILVER need 4h sw lo
long GBP USD 1.60 60 (1.60 00) 1.61 20, 1.61 70, 1.63 00
long USD JPY 80.00 (79.80) 80.20, 80.60, 81.60
long USD CAD .99 80 (.99 20) 1.00 40, 1.2 25
long NZD USD .82 30 (.82 10) .82 50, .82 85, .83 50
long EUR JPY 103.00 (102.10) 103.90, 104.50, 107.90
long GBP JPY 159.60 (159.20) 160.00, 161.75, 162.10
short GBP NZD need a 4h swing low
long CAD JPY 80.15 (79.70) 80.60, 81.10, 81.70
long AUD JPY 83.00 (82.70) 83.30, 83.80, 84.70
long GBP JPY 128.30 (127.80) 128.80, 131.70
long NZD JPY 65.80 (64.90) 66.70, 67.50, 69.00
long NZD CAD 81.90 ( 81.50) 82.30, 82.70
long AUD CAD 103.00 ( 102.60) 103.40, 104.30
short NZD AUD need 4 hour swing low

 

[Leia]

Re: GBP JPY long

Pound Yen set up very similar to cable in the post above
Order to enter long placed @ 127.80, with stop at 126.90 (risk -90pips)
target 1 128.70 (R1, +90pips), if seen stops to breakeven on remaining two parts
target 2 129 60 (+180, R=2) @ previous daily swing high
target 3 trailing stop behind 4 hour swing lows

Order removed as T2 reached without retrace to order placement level

 

[Leia]

EUR JPY long

daily trend indicators are long (4 hour have just crossed to short)
price has retraced into the 61.8/50% level of the previous up move and found support at both horizontal level and diagonal (daily time frame)
combination of the last two 4 hour candles indicate rejection of lower prices at this time
Order entry long at 102.75, with a stop at 102.15 (risk -70pips) with three target levels
T1. R1 = +70pips = 103.35
T2. prev daily Hi = 104.50 (+175pips, R=2.5)
T3. trailing stop behind 4 hour swing lows

as always, should the order be triggered and price move to T1, the stop on the other two pars will be moved to breakeven

 

[Leia]

Re: EUR JPY long

Order entry long at 102.75, with a stop at 102.15 (risk -70pips) with three target levels
T1. R1 = +70pips = 103.35
T2. prev daily Hi = 104.50 (+175pips, R=2.5)
T3. trailing stop behind 4 hour swing lows
/QUOTE]
R1 (+60pips) @ 103.35 achieved, stops moved to breakeven on remaining two parts

 

[Leia]

Re: EUR JPY long

R1 (+60pips) @ 103.35 achieved, stops moved to breakeven on remaining two parts

stops hit for NIL on second two positions

 

[Leia]

CAD CHF short

daily indicators are short
price has retraced just over 61.8% of the previous down move on the daily time frame and printed a candle 'price action' formation indicating rejection of higher prices at this time (the 4 hour chart indicators however are long)

I have placed an order short @ .94 65, stop .95 40 (risk-75pips) with the usual targets
T1 @R1 +75pips = .93 90
T2 @prev Daily swing low = .92 70 (+195 pips R=2)
part 3 I will trial my stop

 

[Leia]

EUR NZD short 4H trigger

My daily and 4 hour time frame indicators are short
Price has retraced back into the previous 4h down swing and provided an inside bar type candle formation which I am basing this trade order on
short @ 1.56 20,stop 1.56 90 (risk-70pips)
T1 @R1 = 1.55 50 (+70pips)
T2 @ pre daily swing low 1.54 00 (+220pips) R=3
T3 trailing stop

 

[Leia]

Re: watch list for week commencing November 5th

Virtually all of these pairs have reversed during the week, providing no trade set up opportunities with the exception of EUR JPY (post #574 = break even after T1 hit) and GBP JPY, which hit target 1 prior to retracing to my order entry level (post # 573)

from 5 last week (one of which worked out, but I failed to execute) to 16 to watch for trigger price action signals this week:
short GOLD need a 4 hour swing low
reversal
short SILVER need 4h sw lo
reversal
long GBP USD 1.60 60 (1.60 00) 1.61 20, 1.61 70, 1.63 00
reversal
long USD JPY 80.00 (79.80) 80.20, 80.60, 81.60
reversal
long USD CAD .99 80 (.99 20) 1.00 40, 1.2 25
reversal
long NZD USD .82 30 (.82 10) .82 50, .82 85, .83 50
reversal
long EUR JPY 103.00 (102.10) 103.90, 104.50, 107.90
long GBP JPY 159.60 (159.20) 160.00, 161.75, 162.10
short GBP NZD need a 4h swing low
reversal
long CAD JPY 80.15 (79.70) 80.60, 81.10, 81.70
reversal
long AUD JPY 83.00 (82.70) 83.30, 83.80, 84.70
reversal
long GBP JPY 128.30 (127.80) 128.80, 131.70
reversal
long NZD JPY 65.80 (64.90) 66.70, 67.50, 69.00
reversal
long NZD CAD 81.90 ( 81.50) 82.30, 82.70
reversal
long AUD CAD 103.00 ( 102.60) 103.40, 104.30
reversal
short NZD AUD need 4 hour swing low

 

[Leia]

watch list for week commencing November 12th

13 pairs on the list for this week, some are mid move on the 4 hour time-frame, making assessment of levels impossible at this point in time
short GBP USD need a swing low to print on 4 hour time-frame
long USD CHF need sw hi
short EUR USD need sw lo
long USD CAD need sw hi
long USD JPY (daily time-frame only) 79 30 ( 79 05) 79 55, 80 , 80 60
long AUD USD 1.03. 0 (1.03 00) 1.03 60, 1.04 70
short EUR NZD (in trade) see post # 576
short EUR AUD 1.23 60 (1.24 00) 1.23 20 (low stake as at daily support level)
short GBP CAD 1.54 10 (1.55 00) 1.53 20, 1.52 70
long AUD CAD 1.03 70 (1.03 30) 1.04 10, 1.05 00
long NZD CHF 77 00 (76 60) 77 40, 78 00 / 80 00
long AUD CHF 97 60 (.97 00) .98 40, 1.01 00
long AUD ZND 1.26 40 (1.25 80) 1.27 00, 1.2900

 

[Leia]

Re: CAD CHF short

I have placed an order short @ .94 65, stop .95 40 (risk-75pips) with the usual targets
T1 @R1 +75pips = .93 90
T2 @prev Daily swing low = .92 70 (+195 pips R=2)
part 3 I will trial my stop

Order opened and T1 achieved. stops moved to Break Even level and taken out

 

[Leia]

Re: EUR NZD short 4H trigger

short @ 1.56 20,stop 1.56 90 (risk-70pips)
T1 @R1 = 1.55 50 (+70pips)
T2 @ pre daily swing low 1.54 00 (+220pips) R=3
T3 trailing stop

Order opened and T1 achieved. stops moved to Break Even level and taken out