GBP/USD - Weekly Bottom this week

FDateTrader

Junior member
21 1
Based on cycle analysis, this week will likely see the British Pound put in a weekly low that results in a daily rally of prices.

However, while a weekly swing bottom is highly likely this week, it is not likely a significant trend changer.

Rather, it appears more likely to become a minor weekly correction before resuming the downside pattern.

At any rate, the next weekly swing target is around the week ending 4/11-18 time period, where a weekly swing at that time will likely manifest itself into a significant trend change on the lower time frames (ie. daily, hourly, etc.).

:)
 

DuCaan

Active member
164 9
Hi FDateTrader - do you have a chart with your cycle work? Would be interested to see how the cycles work. I think JM Hurst wrote a book on cycles back in the 1960s, at times pretty dry read.
Think Cable might find support from the 1.6470, the 61.8% Fib number.
http://marketchartpattern.com/forex/gbpusd-possible-support-levels-technical-analysis-20-march-2014/
Also is there some cycle work available for the USDCAD pair. Interested in that.
http://marketchartpattern.com/forex...stance-level-weekend-review-21-23-march-2014/
 

FDateTrader

Junior member
21 1
Hi DuCaan,

I have charts but they won't show you anything about my cycle work.

J M Hurst is a dry read, but a valuable one. It's a good starting place though there's more beyond it.

:)
 

FDateTrader

Junior member
21 1
BP Cycle Envelope Chart

Hi FDateTrader - do you have a chart with your cycle work? Would be interested to see how the cycles work. I think JM Hurst wrote a book on cycles back in the 1960s, at times pretty dry read.
Think Cable might find support from the 1.6470, the 61.8% Fib number.
http://marketchartpattern.com/forex/gbpusd-possible-support-levels-technical-analysis-20-march-2014/
Also is there some cycle work available for the USDCAD pair. Interested in that.
http://marketchartpattern.com/forex...stance-level-weekend-review-21-23-march-2014/

DuCann, this is not based on my cycle work, but is a Hurst technique I simply refer to as 'cycle envelopes' that gives an expectation based on recent price action.

This particular chart is not really predictive, so I would use this just to get a 'current' visual of the potential, then do my thing to see if it supports the assumption.

BP Cycle Envelope Chart

:)
 

DuCaan

Active member
164 9
Cool, do you use the sine waves as well?
 

MajorMagnuM

Legendary member
9,284 888
Based on cycle analysis, this week will likely see the British Pound put in a weekly low that results in a daily rally of prices.

However, while a weekly swing bottom is highly likely this week, it is not likely a significant trend changer.

Rather, it appears more likely to become a minor weekly correction before resuming the downside pattern.

At any rate, the next weekly swing target is around the week ending 4/11-18 time period, where a weekly swing at that time will likely manifest itself into a significant trend change on the lower time frames (ie. daily, hourly, etc.).

:)
Bloody hell ma, i think thats what happened, if u count the low at beginning of week
 

FDateTrader

Junior member
21 1
Limited as a correction

Pound has major resistance 1.68-1.6825 range, so the upside seems limited for longs.

The expectation was that it was limited. You'll note in my original post that this is considered (IMHO) to be a 'correction' move at the very least.

But for a potentially limited move, today makes 5 straight bullish days in a row since putting in the expected swing bottom low.

Take these any time. :)
 

PieterSteidelmayer

Well-known member
283 54
Based on cycle analysis, this week will likely see the British Pound put in a weekly low that results in a daily rally of prices.

However, while a weekly swing bottom is highly likely this week, it is not likely a significant trend changer.

Rather, it appears more likely to become a minor weekly correction before resuming the downside pattern.

At any rate, the next weekly swing target is around the week ending 4/11-18 time period, where a weekly swing at that time will likely manifest itself into a significant trend change on the lower time frames (ie. daily, hourly, etc.).

:)
A weekly low? You mean lower than 4800, this week? Or do you mean a local weekly low below 6460? A swing bottom? That's a new one. And a low doesn't 'result in a rally', it is defined by the subsequent rally.

Resuming the downside? Are we looking at the same charts. Weekly Cable? Cable is up in any timeframe you are to mention. 6680 is pivotal.We're there right now.
 

FDateTrader

Junior member
21 1
Weekly Swing Bottom confirmed.

A weekly low? You mean lower than 4800, this week? Or do you mean a local weekly low below 6460? A swing bottom? That's a new one. And a low doesn't 'result in a rally', it is defined by the subsequent rally.

Resuming the downside? Are we looking at the same charts. Weekly Cable? Cable is up in any timeframe you are to mention. 6680 is pivotal.We're there right now.

"Based on cycle analysis, this week will likely see the British Pound put in a weekly low that results in a daily rally of prices."

As it was posted last week on March 23, under the Subject "Weekly Bottom this week", that I was referring to last week that ended on March 28.

"...put in a weekly low that results in a daily rally of prices."

The weekly low was formed the very next day on March 24, and it resulted in a daily rally of prices, going up 5 consecutive days. That's easy to see.

"...while a weekly swing bottom is highly likely this week...".

Today prices moved higher than last week's high, while last week's low is still intact. This is called a CONFIRMED WEEKLY SWING BOTTOM for last week's low.

My comments dealt with TIME and made no reference to price. The bottom line is that cycle analysis indicated to me (and I to you all) that last week had a HIGH PROBABILITY of producing a weekly swing bottom...and it did just so.

You should also note that I stated that "it is not likely a significant trend changer", in that the next weekly swing is expected to likely occur around the week 4/11 to week 4/18 time window. With prices moving higher off a weekly swing bottom, naturally I'd be looking at any weekly high within that time period as a potential weekly swing top. But as for the potential top, I make no forecast of details on it in this post as it was simply to alert you all of a BOTTOM...and a bottom we did get.

:)
 

FDateTrader

Junior member
21 1
Swing terminology

A weekly low? You mean lower than 4800, this week? Or do you mean a local weekly low below 6460? A swing bottom? That's a new one. And a low doesn't 'result in a rally', it is defined by the subsequent rally.

swing bottoms and swing tops. As more and more into the pool of trading commentary, the definition is starting to get watered down. For the 30 years I've been trading, and going back to the days of W. D. Gann (early 20th century), the terms 'swing top and bottom' refer to the following:

Swing Bottom: When you have a price bar that makes a lower-low than the previous price bar low, and then prices rise to make a higher-high while that low is still holding, that low becomes a 'confirmed' swing bottom.

Swing Top: When you have a price bar that makes a higher-high than the previous price bar high, and then prices decline to make a lower-low while that high is still holding, that high becomes a 'confirmed' swing top.

W. D. Gann often wrote about 'swings' and applied this definition for which I subscribe. Others also referred to this pattern as swings, such as Michael Jenkins on Chart Reading when defining trends.

So when someone says that they are expecting a 'swing bottom' for a particular time-frame, you would use the price bar chart of that time-frame to look for that particular pattern.

My referring to last week as a high probability 'weekly' swing bottom would suggest that you would look at last week's price bar on a weekly chart to form that pattern. Last week made a lower-low (that's the first requirement) compared to the previous weekly low, and this week now has formed a higher-high than last week's high to confirm that low as a 'swing bottom'.

Based on W. D. Gann's "Trend Line Indicator" method for 1-bar swings, the line would now be moved up from last week's low to this week's current high, thus forming a 'swing' of the line itself.

Some have mistakenly referred to swings as the actual 'waves' themselves, such as the recent daily rally in BP since the bottom low of 3/24, referring to the rally itself as a 'swing'. It's not a swing! The rally is a WAVE. Waves can be impulse or corrective. The 'swing' on the daily chat is the 3/24 price bar itself...a DAILY swing bottom.

So in BP, we have a 3/24 DAILY swing bottom, and on the weekly chart a week ending 3/28 WEEKLY swing bottom. Same exact pattern. New lower-low that holds long enough for prices in following price bar(s) to make higher highs.

Cheers!
 

FDateTrader

Junior member
21 1
You mean the low of the week - not a weekly low?

In the case of the post, both.

The low of that particular week was also the weekly low.

When I refer to 'weekly', I'm looking at a weekly time-frame chart.

When I refer the 'daily rally' that would result from that weekly low, then naturally it would be coming off the lowest price of that week, which is both the weekly low AND the low of the week.


:)
 

fxstrategist

Established member
604 16
Gbpusd

The GBPUSD had a brief moment of volatility for today, but it ended up the session above the 1.6700 level. From this point on, if we see a visit to the 1.6800, that could give us the opportunity to go short from there.
 
 
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