Seeking consistency

[Leia]

Re: USD CAD daily short

Stop hit - trade close for NIL (BE)

New Order placed, same initial entry and stop
Opened, moved further into risk (-30 pips) before turning around and hitting R1 @ 0.99 75 so once more stop at break even to see what happens next

 

[Leia]

Re: USD CAD daily short

New Order placed, same initial entry and stop
Opened, moved further into risk (-30 pips) before turning around and hitting R1 @ 0.99 75 so once more stop at break even to see what happens next

this trade also hit R1 (and very nearly in my favour by R2), I moved my stop to break even and got stopped out for break even again

 

[Leia]

GBP USD long (daily set up)

my daily trend is long, but price is well below both moving averages and the 20ema has turned down, in time to cross the 50sma

my 4H trend is definitely short

However Fridays daily candle is of a 'hammer' type formation at previous support and could well indicate an over stretched market, offering a counter trend long trade back up to the moving averages and the previous support / resistance around the big 1.60 00 level

The range of Fridays candle is too large for me to risk, so I have placed a long order about half way back into Fridays range, with a stop below.
Entry 1.57 85, stop 1.57 30 (risk =55pips) target 1.60 00 (reward 215 pips) R=4

As always, should the order be met and price move in my favour, I will move my stop to break even at R1 (1.58 40)

 

[Leia]

Re: GBP USD long (daily set up)

Entry 1.57 85, stop 1.57 30 (risk =55pips) target 1.60 00 (reward 215 pips) R=4
- stop to break even at R1 (1.58 40)

My order was opened (by 8 pips!) lunch time yesterday and just made it to R1 @ 1.58 40 into the New York close last night. I have therefore moved my stop up to break even @ 1.57 85 this morning

 

[Leia]

Re: GBP USD long (daily set up)

My order was opened (by 8 pips!) lunch time yesterday and just made it to R1 @ 1.58 40 into the New York close last night. I have therefore moved my stop up to break even @ 1.57 85 this morning

Stop hit - trade closed for NIL

 

[Leia]

EUR GBP short

I placed an order short at the 'gap' from the market open two weeks ago also at 2008 resistance and 2010 support (ie looking to hold as resistance again)

it is with the monthly ,weekly and daily trend, but counter the 4H (trigger time-frame)

entry 0. 80 90, stop 0.81 20 (risk -30pips) target recent lows 0.79 50 (reward +140) R=4

however price broke down through my R1 level @ 0.80 60 before my order was triggered open so I have now cancelled it

Charts attached for my records

 

[Leia]

USD CHF counter terend short

USD CHF has just reached weekly resistance levels at 2012 highs (set in January)
This also coincides with a 50 to 61.8% retracement on the last monthly down swing

It is a counter trend trade, as both my daily and 4 hourly trends are strong in the long direction

However I see potential for the over stretched market (price is a long distance fro its daily moving averages) to retrace from this very significant level

The 1H and 4H charts indicate short term rejection of higher prices and daily and 4H charts indicate a potential target zone with an attractive 'R'

I have placed a n order at todays lows, short to 61.8% retrace of the recent string daily up move, which is also the resistance last month (Aprils Highs)
Entry 0.95 30, stop 0.96 00 (R -70pips), target 0.92 50 (reward +280) R=4

 

[Leia]

USD CAD 4H short to 1.00 50?

I'm intrigued to see if this multi time period screen shot post legibly

Although my daily trend is up, the 20ema is turning down and the last two daily candles have decidedly bearish traits
My 4H chart is indicating short (per the moving averages) and has printed a 'shooting star' type of formation indicating rejection of higher prices

I have placed an order at the 50% re-tracement of this 4hour candle to reduce my risk to 35pips and see a lot of space below to potential daily support (previous resistance) at 1.00 50 (a risk reward of over 4 times, should the trade plan work out)

The 4 hour time-frame 'trigger' chart is top left of my screen shot. the daily time-frame is top right, showing the 'space' price has to move down into
for reference I also show the weekly (bottom left) and monthly (bottom right) timescale studies, with obvious support and resistance levels marked (not that they have been used in any of the trade plan assessment described above)

 

[Leia]

Re: USD CAD 4H short to 1.00 50?

I'm intrigued to see if this multi time period screen shot post legibly
I have placed an order at the 50% re-tracement of this 4hour candle to reduce my risk to 35pips and see a lot of space below to potential daily support (previous resistance) at 1.00 50 (a risk reward of over 4 times, should the trade plan work out))

Multi chart post is quite legible
However trade result shows the importance of stops!
This one not only failed to work out, costing me 35pips, price is now at 1.03 00, some 100 pips off my entry, so had I not got out with a -35pip loss on this trade I would now be sweating on a -100pip one

 

[Leia]

EUR JPY long to 102.00?

Daily trend (top right chart) is down
However, price has broken and is holding above D20ema and has broken and closed above the D descending trend-line and broken and closed above the recent D range

4H trend is up (top left chart)
price has retraced to 50% of the previous 4H upswing and printed a 'hammer-ish' trigger candle and rejected the 'dynamic' support provided by the 4H 20ema

I have placed an order long @ 100.75, with a stop at 100.35 (-40pip risk) and a target of the previous D swing high @ 102.00 (+125 pips reward), 'R' = 3, should the trade plan work out

I fully appreciate that 'with trend' Daily time-frame traders will be eying this level to enter back in short on this pair, which is the whole nature of trading and why I have a stop in place, should they be 'right' on this occasion.

I read recently that trading is not about one trade, or achieving a phenomenal success ratio of trades, but about consistently applying your (personal) trading 'edge' over a large series of trades that overall provide a greater financial win than loss

This implies that it is the combination of success ratio and Risk to Reward ('R') factor that are important. If you win 50% of your trade setups (flip of a coin!) with an 'R' of 2 or greater your account will grow. (therefore you can be a successful trader with a win ratio that is lower than 50%!)

 

[Leia]

cable long to 1.58 30

Daily trend is down
However an ascending channel has been in place for all of June on the daily (top right) time-frame
Yesterday saw price retrace 61.8% of the last 4H upswing and print an inside bar (now supported by a 'hammer'). Top left hand chart

I have entered long at 1.56 10 with a stop at 1.55 75 (risk -35pips) with a target of the daily swing high at 1.58 30 (220 pips reward) R=8

 

[Leia]

Re: cable long to 1.58 30

I have entered long at 1.56 10 with a stop at 1.55 75 (risk -35pips) with a target of the daily swing high at 1.58 30 (220 pips reward) R=8

Stop hit for a loss of 35 pips @ 1.55 75 (price has been to 1.55 55, so again my stop has prevented too large a loss)

 

[Leia]

Re: EUR JPY long to 102.00?

I have placed an order long @ 100.75, with a stop at 100.35 (-40pip risk) and a target of the previous D swing high @ 102.00 (+125 pips reward), 'R' = 3

Price has reached 1.01 22 (+47 pips) as this is more than my risk I have now moved my stop up to a break even position. I also observe the 4H 20ema has acted as 'dynamic' support on three occasions in the present 4H up swing (since the 4H moving averaged crossed to the 'long' direction) and the 4H ma's are diverging (strengthening upward trend)

Will it end before my target is reached @ 102.00?

 

[Leia]

NZD USD daily range set up

Both my daily and 4H indicators (moving averages) are pointing to the upside
However price action for this pair indicates a reversal (lower) may be setting up at this previous support level (now potentially turning into resistance)
There is little obvious support until the 0.78 60 level

I have therefore placed a counter trend order @ 0.80 30 with a stop above 0.80 65 (risk - 35) and a target @ 0.78 50 (reward +180), which is over R5

 

[JahDave]

Nice trading methodology Leia........ Very similar to mine.............. I trade the AUD_USD,,,,, mostly, but I understand your NZD charts as very similar to my Aussie outlook........... The only difference is that I have a smaller profit target before a reversal........ The Aussie is going up in a 5th wave soon and then going down very hard................But I am short aussie tonight............ Before I buy it, for the last gasp up for a while............

 

[JahDave]

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/82900-elliott-wave-eur-usd-22.html

There is my last post,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, I am going to change my title to AUD_USD soon.......

 

[Leia]

Nice trading methodology Leia........ Very similar to mine.............. I trade the AUD_USD,,,,, mostly, but I understand your NZD charts as very similar to my Aussie outlook........... The only difference is that I have a smaller profit target before a reversal........

Hi JahDave

Thank you for your constructive post

I understand the reason for a smaller target. My daily chart has a strong trend line, which could provide support around 0.79 40 and my 4Hour shows an 'area of interest' to join the dominant daily and 4hourly 'up' trend at last weeks swing high (previous resistance, potential support) around 0.79 60, which is also a nice fib re-tracement level (around the 50 - 61.8% zone)

My trading strategy dictates that should my trade open and move in my direction by an amount equal to the risk (ie 35 pips in this NZD USD) then I move my stop to breakeven.

Should this occur, I will move to breakeven if price hits 0.79 95, which is before either of the 'rejoin the trend' levels mentioned above

I will be watching price action on the 4H and daily chart for clues that indicate resumption of the 'long' trend, both to manage my short (if it opens) and to enter back in long

I hope the two snap shots make it clearer!

 

[JahDave]

Leia, My Aussie target is 1.0375 However if it gets there then there will be a huge reversal from there...................... Good trading to you..............Leia,,,,,,,The USD on the index is going up and then down pretty strong..................... for a wave 2................ Mark it up,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Elliott Wave Rules,,,,,,,,,,,,,and I love it, It is good for reading mass social mood, and that is what moves the markets...........

 

[Leia]

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/82900-elliott-wave-eur-usd-22.html

There is my last post,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, I am going to change my title to AUD_USD soon.......

Hi JahDave

I see your strategy is Elliot Wave based. That's very different to me, I like simple things.

My strategy is more 'plain vanilla'. I just look for trend (based on the 50 and 20 moving averages), recent support and resistance levels on the Daily time frame and price action (candle formation)

Any way, providing you are consistent with your approach your strategy will deliver superior returns over a succession of trades, since no-one can ever know where price is going next with certainty, you just have to accept the inevitable 'wrong' losing trades as the price for the 'right' winning ones.

Are the antipodean currencies due a 'correction' to lower prices before continuing higher, are they just going on up from here, or is this the start of a major leg lower?

Only time will tell...

 

[Leia]

Kiwi & Ozzie 4H counter trend (short) triggers

My nzd trade has been stopped out by 10 pips (saw 0.80 75)

however both nzd & aud have printed nice 4H triggers

ndz usd short @ 0.80 40 STOP = 0.80 75 (-35) target 0.78 40 (+200) R= 5+
aud usd short @ 1.02 90 STOP = 1.03 30 (-30) target 1. 00 50 (+240) R= 8+