S&P Daily by robinho

[r0b1nh0pkr]

The situation in the S&P could be difficult today. I prefered a 5 wave down move a couple of days ago, but we will se what happens.
If the S&P breaks the MoB at 1887, we are not on a 5 wave down move. there should be the stop for shorts. My own created breakout system is long since 1870, but i prefer to trust in the elliott wave analyses.

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

Here you can see:

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

Starts perfectly, the S&P is below the red line at 1883,5

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

God bless...trading the S&P and Dow was very easy till now. The S&P crashed under the 1883,5 and made a 61,8% retracement yet. I´ve put my stop now at 1883. It is still possible that the indices tries to surprise me and we need a plan B. In the Dax, it is obvious. In the S&P more difficult.
I think everyone who followed me today, made a good profit. So, tomorrow i´m a bit busier, but i´ll try my best to update you as good as i can.

What I would like to know now is, after more than 150 clicks...does it make sense for you guys if i continue my work here? I have just no response yet, just a jerk who gave me 1 star for perfect analyses (today).
Another question is: Is there nobody else in this forum who shares their analyses? are there no elliott-wave or neely-wave traders in here?

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

I´ll try a risky long at the Dow Jones 16405 Stop 16396. We have a lot of oversold indicators, monthly pp, tweezer bottoms etc. could work

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

S&P for today:

We are in a short scenario until the S&P breaks the 1877,4.
If the S&P breaks the line, we will target the area around 1887, 1896 again.
In summary, the S&P should be easy to trade today. Just keep an eye on this important line. If the S&P breaks it and falls below after, keep an eye on a 61,8% retracement, because a break would imply, that we have seen a 5 wave up before.

I´m out for today as i said. Good luck everyone

 

[Hedging Highwayman]

Thanks r0b1nh0pkr. I don't follow Elliot wave personally although it looks an interesting technique, certainly worth some study time from my point of view. I have the S&P up at the moment and it pushed through the 61.8 level just after the open so I'll certainly be looking for a pullback and possible retrace.
HH

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

Hey, thats good thank you for your response.
The Analyses today were very successfull. I said the 1877,4 is very important, that was the MoB (Make or Break) Line for the down trend. After the S&P broke this line, it was clear that the first target was around 1887 (high: 1886,05). We have a lot more information now, about what happens in the next few days. I will update my analyses later, but i expect at least one more high.
If you have any questions, feel free to ask here.

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

EW Update S&P:

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

A member asked me for a Nikkei analysis, so i´ll upload it now in here.
This EW Analysis was made without controlling the waves. I will give another update later, when i´ve checked everything.

First, when i start creating my EW Charts, I need to make a BigPicture.
This one is a possibility:

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

Nikkei Intraday:

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

It is possible that the Nikkei is still in the z6. 13961 should be the stop for longs

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

Looked like the analysis for nikkei was not so bad

Now, lets see what we can expect in the S&P today:

I can make it really quick this time. I need one more high to complete the wave v8, after that, we should see a correction which should find its end aroung 1880 1876.
If anything could be different, i´ll let you know

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

Lets review this:
I said i need one more high to complete the wave v8 = done
now, i believe the correction has started. Target area: 1882 - 1877

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

Nice to see what happens with the Nikkei. He follows the analysis very well, but now, there should start a wave 2 of the red C5. The main target stays around the 15.000, the 161,8% target is at 15118.

Lets review the S&P a bit:
What i have done wrong is, that I was chasing the end of the trend wave yesterday. I´m short since 1892. That is risky, too risky. You should always listen to the sentence "the trend is your friend".
The best thing to do, would have been to stay long, even if the correction starts and place another long if it reaches a 50% or 61,8% retracement. That is professional elliott wave trading - not chasing the end of a subwave of a trend.
For all shorties, i can say that my own created breakout system, which runs with a profit-factor of 3.12, has created a short signal before the S&P closed. So maybe, stay calm. The chances for the correction are good right now.

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

I won´t make an EW Update today for the S&P, because there are so many possibilitys, that i prefer to wait for more information.
I have a strong resistance zone at 1897.4, the RSI has a lot of space for a downmove and a divergence, the breakout system is short too. I stay with that, i´m short anyway since 1892 and i´ll put my stop at 1898.

Good luck everyone

 

[12WBT]

Got my fingers crossed for you Robbie.
How do you think Germany will go in the football/soccer world cup?

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

thanks, but dont worry. I was long for 15 points this week, now, when i lose 5 points, i´ll have to accept that. I ´ve written above what i have done wrong and have to learn from the mistake.

I don´t know, but i can´t imagine that the world cup will be successful for germany this year. We have so many injured players and we still hadl no match, even no friendly in south america to make experience about how it feels to play 90mins with this climate.

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

usually, this should count a lot. I´ve deleted my stop, but if the RSI breaks this line, i´m out.