DionysusToast
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scratched it - couldn't get my T1 which I would have gotten comfortably if I'd got in earlier. Not comfortable in that position, so out at b/e.... sigh...
Hi guys
First trading day in July 69% chance of closing positive second most bullish day in July (from cobra site below a useful one to bookmark)
Seasonality by Month and Day | Cobra's Market View
On relatively painful examination of trades since the beginning of March, I have noticed that what made my trade selection good has slid to bad. I am talking here about 30-60secs difference in timing for entry. I try to find a good compromise between a good location for entry vs getting a confirmation.
The Location vs Confirmation paradigm is an interesting one. For getting a good price where few people have traded, you must rely upon less confirmation. If you wait for an abundance of confirmation, price has already run away from the best entry location. If you are after 4-8 ticks, this is crucial.
What has been gradually happening to me (and reached a tipping point in the second week of June) is that I have been waiting for less and less confirmation to enter and the lower amount of confirmation has sent the lose rate up because trade selection has deteriorated. This location vs confirmation balance generates my edge. It is a sensitive beast and the world must be harmonious for it to work effectively. Behaviourally to support this, I am looking less at the ladder and more at the 1m chart. I am less focussed on how the price is ticking up and down and more on the absolute position of price on the chart.
Why is this happening? It is because I am trying to look for more and more certainty in a world where the only certainty is uncertainty and it is affecting the cognitive mechanism I use to ascertain when to jump in. I have stopped listening to myself and started to read the charts.
So now I have identified what I am doing, I can now plan to improve matters which will take a little time. Eventually, I will see strings of winners again.
Just thought I'd share.
........................What has been gradually happening to me (and reached a tipping point in the second week of June) is that I have been waiting for less and less confirmation to enter and the lower amount of confirmation has sent the lose rate up because trade selection has deteriorated. This location vs confirmation balance generates my edge.............................
The Location vs Confirmation paradigm is an interesting one. For getting a good price where few people have traded, you must rely upon less confirmation. If you wait for an abundance of confirmation, price has already run away from the best entry location. If you are after 4-8 ticks, this is crucial.
This is my take on it:
You have had a confidence bash. (this is the short of it)
The thing about the confirmation, though - the trade should go your way almost immediately.
The push up 3 days ago had decent volume
But I don't think this is indicative of longer term players getting positioned.
So - the 'value' trader in me says a long is unwise because we are not in vertical development yet, we are above value. The 'momentum' trader in me says this low volume churn is also too risky to long. I'd jump on a trend with better volume, pace. So to me, it's walk away or short it. Neither will make you money. This sort of market isn't one I can profit from. Other people are fine, I am sure.
Possibly - but the other possibility is that he got over confident.
Was going to mention this. A person really needs to keep themselves reigned-in at all times. Even posting too much on T2W....seriously.
Well said, DT.
@Rob. i'm confident it's just a blip, mate.