S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat

[Pat494]

We need more trades in this thread again... I'm as guilty as everyone else in this respect. I've tapered off my posts here apart from the pre-market stuff.

No particular reason tbh except laziness. I still do the screen prints for my journal, just that the uploads are a pain in the ass...

My apologies thread, I shall try to improve...

here here

My forecast for today's close = 1448.6

 

[splashy]

We need more trades in this thread again... I'm as guilty as everyone else in this respect. I've tapered off my posts here apart from the pre-market stuff.

No particular reason tbh except laziness. I still do the screen prints for my journal, just that the uploads are a pain in the ass...

My apologies thread, I shall try to improve...

I'm happy to put some up here DT if you accept DAX. If so, i'm currently long from 7341, the break of yesterdays high. Here is the detail of the trade attached as it currently stands - +23 at present with stop at B/e. Target is ... whatever i think i can get or whenever my nerve fails - whichever comes first.
I'll try to organise a chart and better explanation later if i can.

 

[Pat494]

I'm happy to put some up here DT if you accept DAX.

Any index is welcome. I watch the CAC sometimes as it follows the S&P and is less volatile.

 

[splashy]

Any index is welcome. I watch the CAC sometimes as it follows the S&P and is less volatile.

Cheers Pat494,
i post on Flash's thread sometimes but its mainly for fx and i'm not trading as much fx as i used to so poor DAX is a bit homeless. I'm also not getting as much time in front of the screen as i used to hence more orders on longer TF's and less live calls.

 

[DionysusToast]

1st October 2012

Europe up, Asia Mixed

The past 4 days have marked out their own mini-range and that may continue but I would much prefer to see a bounce back up past 1450 for another more tradable move down.

Range of those last 4 days is 1424-1444.50. We have hit the bottom of the range a fair amount, so we might not come back to a good level to bounce up off…

October 2nd - Opinion unchanged from yesterday

Asia mixed (Chinese hols), Europe up

When I said "a bounce up past 1450" - yesterday, I didn't really mean go thru 6 ticks and reverse all in the same bloody day!

Mechanical Levels
YL - 1427.75, YH - 1451.50, YC - 1436.75 ONL 1436, ONHY 1446 (so far).

Looks like we will open in yesterdays range but overnight action leaves us 10 points above yesterdays close, so a move down off the open is likely before we move up.

Longs - 1436.75, 1427.75, 1424, 1420
Shorts - 1468, 1462.75, 1457, 1453, 1451.50-75, 1448.75

 

[DionysusToast]

9:33 – shorted bounce from ONH – poor fill – got 45.25

Will adjust targets 2 & 3 as I want to get to yesterdays close.

 

[DionysusToast]

Will now let it run...

 

[DionysusToast]

Oh Good fkn Lord - here's me arsing about posting the trade and I somehow closed it....

Now remind me again why I don't post trades.....

Short 1445.25
T1 - 1444.25
The rest out @ 1442.75

Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuurk

You can all thank me later

 

[DionysusToast]

Marvellous...

Obviously - I'm done for the day...

 

[splashy]

I'm happy to put some up here DT if you accept DAX. If so, i'm currently long from 7341, the break of yesterdays high. Here is the detail of the trade attached as it currently stands - +23 at present with stop at B/e. Target is ... whatever i think i can get or whenever my nerve fails - whichever comes first.
I'll try to organise a chart and better explanation later if i can.

stopped out at b/e. Its one of those that i can't decide whether i did good, bad or indifferent. It was on a longer t/f so i was aiming for a decent score and at one point there were 30 pips on the table but i was probably aiming for more than twice that so i gave it some room. I moved the stop to b/e because i thought it wouldn't be challenged again but it got taken out and then some. I guess its one of those that i won't know how clever/stupid i am until tomorrow.

 

[Pat494]

stopped out at b/e. Its one of those that i can't decide whether i did good, bad or indifferent. It was on a longer t/f so i was aiming for a decent score and at one point there were 30 pips on the table but i was probably aiming for more than twice that so i gave it some room. I moved the stop to b/e because i thought it wouldn't be challenged again but it got taken out and then some. I guess its one of those that i won't know how clever/stupid i am until tomorrow.

Pity - nearly said take your 20 pip profit but good manners stopped me.

:whistling

pretty flat the last hour or so. I expect it will suddenly make a break but which way ?

 

[Pat494]

Wed
Oct 3 All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
3:15am EUR Spanish Services PMI 40.2 44.0
3:45am EUR Italian Services PMI 44.5 43.6 44.0
4:00am EUR Final Services PMI 46.1 46.0 46.0
4:30am GBP Services PMI 52.2 53.1 53.7
4:30am GBP Housing Equity Withdrawal q/q -9.8B -8.6B -9.6B
5:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.1% -0.1% 0.1%
8:15am USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 145K 201K
10:00am USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.2 53.7
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.6M -2.4M
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
9:30pm AUD Building Approvals m/m 4.8% -17.3%
9:30pm AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.5% -0.8%

 

[DionysusToast]

3rd October

10am – ISM non Man PMI

Not much going on. Market in a range 1424-1451. Not much to say I didn’t say yesterday.
Looks like we will likely open in yesterdays range it could be choppy, especially before 10am news.

Mechanical levels
YH 1446, YL 1432.25, YC 1440.50,ONL 1436, ONH 1443.75 so far

Shorts - 1468, 1462.25, 1457.25, 1453, 1450.25-1451.75, 1432.25
Longs – 1440.50, 1432.25, 1425.50, 1420

 

[Pat494]

Thu
Oct 4 3:00am GBP Halifax HPI m/m -0.4% 0.2% -0.4%
Tentative EUR French 10-y Bond Auction 2.21|2.1
7:00am GBP Asset Purchase Facility 375B 375B
7:00am GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50% 0.50%
Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement
7:30am USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y -36.9%
7:45am EUR Minimum Bid Rate 0.75% 0.75%
8:30am EUR ECB Press Conference
8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 371K 359K
10:00am CAD Ivey PMI 59.2 62.5
10:00am USD Factory Orders m/m -6.0% 2.8%
10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage 72B 80B
1:30pm CAD Gov Council Member Macklem Speaks
2:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
7:30pm AUD AIG Construction Index 32.2
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate <0.10% <0.10%

 

[Pat494]

Today's forecast = 1452.1

 

[splashy]

Pity - nearly said take your 20 pip profit but good manners stopped me.

:whistling

pretty flat the last hour or so. I expect it will suddenly make a break but which way ?

Yep, it was tempting at +30 but r/r wouldn't have been very good and i thought the pa had done the hard part already by going past the high and popping through a channel line. Sometimes you feel entitled to go for a biggie. Can't win 'em all.... It seems to be settling into a 100 pt range for now.
In fact, the trade was based on 4hr pattern which still has my original calculated stop intact so i'd still be in the trade if i'd had any balls and put in the proper stop and left it there. I suppose i could still get back in now that it seems to have just bounced off my lower channel line. Hmm...

 

[DionysusToast]

October 2nd

OK - so no prizes for guessing what I think will happen next.....

October 5th

Europe, Asia up.
8:30 - Non Farm Employment, Unemployment, Average earnings.
Value Area high of the range is 1458.25, we are above that now, so I expect a turn down to be imminent. Not to say it can't go up more before it does that but I expect balance to be restored for a while longer before the next move up.

Mechanical Levels
YH 1457.75, YL 1444, YC 1455.75, ONL 1454.50, ONH 1465

From a long perspective, we really need to hold the overnight low IMO.

Longs - 1459.50, 1457.75, 1455.75, 1454, 1443, 1435.50
Shorts - 1468, 1464, 1462.75 (I know we went thru this but I still see it as a good level in the day session)

Good luck trading today all.

 

[DionysusToast]

2 trades

First: 9:30:21....

- short 43 right off the open... didn't see any sellers come in, so took a scratch on it

Second : 9:43:34

Short 63.25

T1 - 61.75 - got already
T2 -59.50
T3 -54.50

As I post this - it's already coming back up on me....

 

[DionysusToast]

Took off the remainder @ -3 ticks - but will go in short again later

 

[chinabean]

Be interesting to see if we close high on decent volume...... maybe next leg up in the making, that unemployment rate is ridiculous as are the revisions....