i should also add,the last time was about a year ago.i try not to let it happen too often now.
i should also add,the last time was about a year ago.i try not to let it happen too often now.
There is one thing I like about your attitude. You don't mind telling us about your setbacks and it does you credit.
Take care and Good Trading.
you have to have a certain positive attitude or some other similar disorder in this game.
and good trading to you too.
+85 on the week.
the ftse short i left running over last weekend eventually cost me -46.friday night i left it at -15 on my brokers close but on another platform it dropped by about 12 points so i was feeling happy with myself for holding.on checking it sunday night it was back to -15,by the time i got around to it monday morning (10am) it was at -30.i had missed my chance to get out at break even around 8am(i like my sleep too much) but i probably wouldnt have taken it as now i would have wanted a win.it then turned out to be one of those days where it just kept bouncing up and up and up(10 times off support,i couldnt believe it!).i tried scalping back a few points but it just wasnt giving me anything.i managed to take about 3 points off 2 trades before the bias changed.and so i loaded up some more,4 positions and it ran to -50,-60(alarm bells are sounding now.im on that old self destructive path) but im comfortable not panicking as the bias is still in my favour and im not going to close out whilst it is.then it begins to drop,im -30 now and the bias once again changes against me.at this point i should have got out but stubbornly held.then i find myself back to -60,-90(alarm bells),-140!
about to close but now the bias was once again in my favour.so i kept my head and thought id sit it out to atleast where it changes again.eventually having had enough and closing out at around 7pm for -46.i was happy not to have closed out at the worst time for -140 but also annoyed at not getting out for -30 hours earlier in the day.
i know i should cut losses but still not quite fully able to do so.theres like a bit of programming missing.
onward next week
the ftse short i left running over last weekend eventually cost me -46.friday night i left it at -15 on my brokers close but on another platform it dropped by about 12 points so i was feeling happy with myself for holding.on checking it sunday night it was back to -15,by the time i got around to it monday morning (10am) it was at -30.i had missed my chance to get out at break even around 8am(i like my sleep too much) but i probably wouldnt have taken it as now i would have wanted a win.it then turned out to be one of those days where it just kept bouncing up and up and up(10 times off support,i couldnt believe it!).i tried scalping back a few points but it just wasnt giving me anything.i managed to take about 3 points off 2 trades before the bias changed.and so i loaded up some more,4 positions and it ran to -50,-60(alarm bells are sounding now.im on that old self destructive path) but im comfortable not panicking as the bias is still in my favour and im not going to close out whilst it is.then it begins to drop,im -30 now and the bias once again changes against me.at this point i should have got out but stubbornly held.then i find myself back to -60,-90(alarm bells),-140!
about to close but now the bias was once again in my favour.so i kept my head and thought id sit it out to atleast where it changes again.eventually having had enough and closing out at around 7pm for -46.i was happy not to have closed out at the worst time for -140 but also annoyed at not getting out for -30 hours earlier in the day.
i know i should cut losses but still not quite fully able to do so.theres like a bit of programming missing.
onward next week
just as id finished writing and thought that was it for the week,the dax suddenly fell about 100 points in practically seconds.thinking it was too good an opportunity to miss,i went long.in the blink of an eye i was down over 100 points.fuming,but with a sense of calm,i thought why couldnt i have just left it but as the bias was in my favour i would have to scalp back and try to get out with a smaller loss.so at what seemed a more opportune time i went long again and managed to get out net +30.and only previously,minutes before this plunge i had closed out 2 shorts for a measly 10 odd points.that could have been nearly 500 points but it was the ukraine news that caused it otherwise i dont think such a plunge was on the charts.
so now picture a huge piece of machinery,a production belt with cogs/wheels
i'll have to get back to you on this one.
so now picture a huge piece of machinery,a production belt with cogs/wheels
i'll have to get back to you on this one.
I lost 20 points on that one. It was a trade that I had put on earlier and went out. One of the tricks of the markets to relieve us of our money.
20 points is easier to win back and you didnt waste hours of emotional energy on it.
one of the reasons i dont use stops is it adds another layer of anxiety to an already tense situation(it gets less tense as you improve as a trader),with the added worry of is the stop going to get hit as the price approaches it then recedes,the constant ebb and flow until it is finally hit and you are put out of your misery.and in a volatile market you might have put in a 20 point stop and end up paying 40/50,you are at the mercy of the broker unless you pay more for a guaranteed stop.and then to add insult to injury,your stop is spiked out and the prices comes back to where you would have been in profit.
a babtism of fire,one of the rights of passage.
Forexmospherian
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HI aag100
Re stops - Every FX trade I take ( approx 60 -90 per week ) starts as a scalp with a soft stop of between 3 and 7 pips ( depending on the pair and the spread ) on one click in and out basis - and then I watch it to either take 100% stake off with anything from 1 to 25+ pips ( normally under 30 mins ) or if I think its got potential for a larger swing trade - I then leave 30% stake on with stop in a few pips profit - and forget about it - other than manage it every few hrs if I am not stopped out.
Its a "win /win" situation - it allows me to carry on scalping on other pairs etc.
My main point is once you can read PA at the "coalface" at any advanced level - then you just dont need 20 -30 pip or larger stops or non at all.
Take early losses on the chin ( what's 2 or 3 losses at just a few pips) and let your wins roll on
Bad disciplines of having no stops and not taking small losses will at some time "bite you on the bum" - it might take 3 months or 3 years but it will happen
We all know of hedge fund traders and so called pro's working with no stops etc - but maybe with 0 2% stake sizes allowing them to ride 500 pip + wrong trades - but its so inefficient - and you winnings will be really low
I have easy a 70%+ win ratios and any trade over 10 pips as a RR of 2 for me - don't need many a day to grow my account - but just do the time - ( ie 5k + hrs watching charts at the coalface) and then you will fully understand PA / timings and the way to consistent profit
I am 75% of the time an intraday short term trader ( or scalper to many) but in 2012 I had one trade make me over 1000 pips over a few months - and early on this year - I caught over 500 pips of the fall on the Euro /Aud.
Long term / investment type trading is inefficient unless caught off small stops again - but if you cannot spare 30 -50 hrs a week to trade - it can be done on less than a few hrs a day.
Meanwhile - get your disciplines sorted - before you see that account go the wrong way
GL
Regards
F
Re stops - Every FX trade I take ( approx 60 -90 per week ) starts as a scalp with a soft stop of between 3 and 7 pips ( depending on the pair and the spread ) on one click in and out basis - and then I watch it to either take 100% stake off with anything from 1 to 25+ pips ( normally under 30 mins ) or if I think its got potential for a larger swing trade - I then leave 30% stake on with stop in a few pips profit - and forget about it - other than manage it every few hrs if I am not stopped out.
Its a "win /win" situation - it allows me to carry on scalping on other pairs etc.
My main point is once you can read PA at the "coalface" at any advanced level - then you just dont need 20 -30 pip or larger stops or non at all.
Take early losses on the chin ( what's 2 or 3 losses at just a few pips) and let your wins roll on
Bad disciplines of having no stops and not taking small losses will at some time "bite you on the bum" - it might take 3 months or 3 years but it will happen
We all know of hedge fund traders and so called pro's working with no stops etc - but maybe with 0 2% stake sizes allowing them to ride 500 pip + wrong trades - but its so inefficient - and you winnings will be really low
I have easy a 70%+ win ratios and any trade over 10 pips as a RR of 2 for me - don't need many a day to grow my account - but just do the time - ( ie 5k + hrs watching charts at the coalface) and then you will fully understand PA / timings and the way to consistent profit
I am 75% of the time an intraday short term trader ( or scalper to many) but in 2012 I had one trade make me over 1000 pips over a few months - and early on this year - I caught over 500 pips of the fall on the Euro /Aud.
Long term / investment type trading is inefficient unless caught off small stops again - but if you cannot spare 30 -50 hrs a week to trade - it can be done on less than a few hrs a day.
Meanwhile - get your disciplines sorted - before you see that account go the wrong way
GL
Regards
F
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i do have a stop of sorts.that is,i only keep in my account what i am prepared to lose,anything more than that is withdrawn.
there are aspects of my discipline i do need to address,mainly in not taking trades that do not conform to my set up and secondly to cut those losses early but the use of stops is not one of them.
last week i placed 60 trades 45 wins,12 losses,3 draw.netting 115 points.my strike rate is up there with yours but RR does need improving.
i recently read the book 'bounce' and agree its about the time and effort you put in to your endeavour,id hate it if it was just natural talent or id have quit a long time ago.
regards AA.
Forexmospherian
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Hi AA
Well here's a few more tips or points that might assist you in improving your results etc.
For me - the devil is in the detail and I always like to look at micro managing to see were the weaknesses are - so that I can work on them
If you made approx 60 trades last week and got an approx 74% win ratio - that's very good and encouraging - but the only 115 pips net gives the game away a little.
For example you average win might have been just 14 pips - but your average loss 45 pips - way out of sync and a recipe that could lead to account problems etc
Your average loss needs to be less than you average win - so if you average win is say 18 pips - your average loss needs to be under say 15 pips - as just an example
You need to check some of your past stats - saying 100 or 200 winners and see how many would have worked with just a 15 pip stop.
If you say less than 50% - then you are working with a false win ratio - no problem if your wins are always more than you losses but we can see they are not.
If over 75% of your 100 or 200 wins can be obtained with stops under 15 pips - even though you might have allowed 30 or 50 pip stops - then that's more encouraging and means your timing is not too bad and you are on the right track etc.
With regards to losses - do the same - pick your last 50 or 100 and see what you average loss is - and then say - how much larger is that than my average win on 100 or 200 winners. Forget the odd one or two losses that are completely bad MM - ie if most losses are under 40 pips and you have one at 85 pips - then that's just down to you not being in control - and really you know yourself you have to be always in control.
Next point - time and efficiency and psychology .
How many hrs did you spend stuck in bad trades ?
How many bad trades actually had been say 10 pips in profit - before going to a 20 or 35 or 50 pip loss - that you had to accept.
For me - as a short term intraday trader - I dont want to be in a losing trade more than say 10 minutes maximum - ideally I pull if goes 2 or 3 pips against me in seconds of under 3 mins if I know I have entered wrong
If you have trades in negative positions for hrs and even days - it just plays on your mind and effects your new trades - as you are worrying - and not thinking correctly.
If you are a long term swing trader - looking at weeks or months for targets- no problem - but as we have said before - its inefficient and based more on low return investment trading - not really for full time retail traders wanting 15 -50% per month on stakes under 1 or 2% of your capital.
If after checking your stats you can not see a way to have larger wins than stops sizes - then really you need to find a different strategy.
For me for example my average loss is under 4 pips - although my average win is still less than 10 pips - ie I accept many scalps with just 5 pips - and my wins of over 20+ pips are normally on only 30% stake sizes. The odd 100 - 300 pip wins are like cream on the cake - but even then a 100 pip win at lower stake size is only the same for me - money wise as a scalp making approx 30+ pips on 100% stakes.
We know many intradays trades aim for say 25 or 30 pip targets with 15 or 20 pip stops - but I reckon if they stay with rigid targets their win ratios might only be 50% - even though its still a winning strat - making them money.
Far better to be flexible - cut your losses earlier than your stop size and take you winning even a few pips early if you don't think they will make exactly 30 pips - or leave some stake on with stop in profit - hoping you might even double your first target.
Just some ideas and would be interested to see if this can help you
Have a good week
Regards
F
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some of my thoughts exactly.
i have come across people not taking a 95 point win because their target was 100 and then going on to being stopped out for -50 or so.
at the moment im settling down to knowing i can win more often than lose even if it means winning 5 and losing 4.highley inefficient i know but beggars cant be choosers in such a competitive arena where the success rate at best may only be 5%.
which brings me to my analogy of that big hulking machinery with cogs wheels pulleys levers which coughs splutters wheezes blows out smoke and steam and looks like it might explode as it tries to produce some points.now this machinery i have to fine tune into a precision machine like a fine swiss masterpiece watch with all the pieces working together in perfect harmony.
I agree with everything you say, except for one point and, I must admit, sitting and watching can be an agonising experience. I cannot say, however, that I have ever been taken for 40/50 points when having a 20 points stop in place and I never use guaranteed stops. On the other hand, trying to close manually can be hairy! For all their drawbacks, I prefer to have a stop--warts and all.
If I am watching it and it gets triggered there is a chance of getting back in at a lower price although that can be difficult!
im adding a new phrase to the trading lexicon.
STOP POINT - a point at which you know your wrong and have to exit a trade.this will vary from individual to individual.for some it may be 10 points others 50.for me its when the bias is against me and at this point i would look to get out and like yourself,get back in at a better price.so you might not use a stop but be sure to have a STOP POINT.
The drawback with that is that you have to be watching . I got stopped and the action was over before I got back home ie. the index had recovrered. However, as they say---that's trading!
One of my problems is mental. If I got stopped, I was inclined to think in terms of "Hey! I was wrong--I'll reverse" and the trade recovers in the same direction as before. I've got over that and, now, have another. I am inclined to do nothing, which is safer, of course, but unproductive.
Anyway, have a good week.
One of my problems is mental. If I got stopped, I was inclined to think in terms of "Hey! I was wrong--I'll reverse" and the trade recovers in the same direction as before. I've got over that and, now, have another. I am inclined to do nothing, which is safer, of course, but unproductive.
Anyway, have a good week.
i dont consider watching my trades a problem.infact i like to sit and watch and stew as the trade goes against me.i use this time to question why i did what i did and what i could have done better.this is i believe what will make me a better trader.developing the mind,making those neuron connections in the brain,being that rat in a maze being zapped and trying to remember to do more of whats rewarding and less of whats painful.
im not a fan of golf but perhaps it would be nice to place orders and go off to shoot some golf and check the account,profit banked on the green but im not that good yet.
your last bit is another right of passage.i'll get back to that later.
another right of passage.
you go long and it goes down stopping you out for -20.then you go short and it goes back up taking you for another -20.now you see red,and reverse course again and guess what,its just taken you for another 20.so instead of just being -20 you are -60.ive had a few moments like that and it really does make you despair.i have actually turned round to see if there was anyone behind me watching what i was doing.
sometimes it is best to be stopped out and then do nothing until you have calmed down.but in those days i didnt have a trading plan.i think ive made enough neuron connections now not to repeat that mistake.
might as well get this over and done with.bit of a disaster,-170 for the week.id say it was my egos fault.
sad to report i still havent managed to accept a loss.firstly i broke a rule of trading on my mobile whilst watching tv! monday late afternoon,after closing up for the day up about 15 points,i thought i spotted a short opportunity in the dax and it went nowhere fast only against me about 10 points.my bias is still short,so short again.after holding for over an hour,its taken me to -20 and now im back to about -2 and now the bias has changed so i should have looked to get out but after being on this rollercoaster for so long,the ego doesnt want to cut for -2 it wants a win and over rides all other considerations.come 9pm close it doesnt want to cut for -43.next morning it doesnt want to cut at -60.added some more and run it to -300.i finally snapped out of it and decided not to feed the ego anymore and finally closed out for -167.
with this experience ive come up with another rule,to close out if things are going against me for over 2hrs.
another rule which i will possibly break a few times before becoming disciplined enough to accept it and act on it just as i havent yet accepted taking losses but now know i will have to.
time to slow things down,revisit old rules,refine the strategy before i speed up again.
sad to report i still havent managed to accept a loss.firstly i broke a rule of trading on my mobile whilst watching tv! monday late afternoon,after closing up for the day up about 15 points,i thought i spotted a short opportunity in the dax and it went nowhere fast only against me about 10 points.my bias is still short,so short again.after holding for over an hour,its taken me to -20 and now im back to about -2 and now the bias has changed so i should have looked to get out but after being on this rollercoaster for so long,the ego doesnt want to cut for -2 it wants a win and over rides all other considerations.come 9pm close it doesnt want to cut for -43.next morning it doesnt want to cut at -60.added some more and run it to -300.i finally snapped out of it and decided not to feed the ego anymore and finally closed out for -167.
with this experience ive come up with another rule,to close out if things are going against me for over 2hrs.
another rule which i will possibly break a few times before becoming disciplined enough to accept it and act on it just as i havent yet accepted taking losses but now know i will have to.
time to slow things down,revisit old rules,refine the strategy before i speed up again.
forextrades1
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would it be too difficult for spread betting firms to develop their own to show each individual trader what they want him to see specific to him.
WklyOptions
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you NEED to think thru, understand - what really makes for wkly/mthly profits!
Hi, aag100,
I know you are going thru a frustrating and emotional (and bankroll) roller coaster ride right now.
It's a good idea to slow down a bit - rethink, reformulate your trading plan.
BUT - I can't emphasize enough and need to repeat it again to you - hopefully you will actually read and think thru what I am trying to highlight:
(1) You need to DEFINE your trading EDGE - and begin with only defining 1 or 2 trading EDGE(s) with all of its WRITTEN rules/criteria.
This has to be clear and precise - so that a person reading the Rules can execute 100% consistent with how you would also trade that Edge(s). :idea: :!:
(2) You must trade in the context of a LARGER - and LONGER-TERM cycle of closed trades! You need to understand that your trading "career" is NOT made of single trades. Instead your trading "career" must be composed of 20-30 closed trades. THEN - look at the Net Win or Loss! :whistling :idea:
For example - when driving to a destination - you do not determine your final arrival on the basis of every single block that you just drove by. You may need to make detours, unplanned stops, refuel, etc. But your "SUCCESS" is defined over a period of blocks and miles/kms driven = to reach your end destination.
I wish I can impress upon you, and all T2W new traders or struggling traders = PLEASE = do yourself a tremendous skills-building "favor". :!:
DOCUMENT in a virtual/demo account - or live $ account but trading small enough $ size not to impact your overall risk capital - that you have the SKILL to trade 1 way REPEATEDLY, CONSISTENTLY, w/o errors or deviations! :clap:
If you can really demonstrate this SKILL on 1, 2, or more cycles of closed 20-30 trading "sets" - then I can strongly predict that you will have built the necessary strong foundational base to trade for profits, while dealing with random outcomes, losing streaks, and random rewards! :idea:clap:
If you cannot - or "will not" (just an excuse to rationalize... or "ration out lies"... to yourself) - trading success will most likely and permanently be a very random and distant painful damaging journey! :whistling
I apologize if these points are too "emphatic" - but hey, what the heck - sometimes reality and performance-based SKILLS do, in fact, require real focused effort and structure and metrics!
Good luck - I hope to read more that your processes, your results, your trading insights, are developing in the correct direction!
Regards,
WklyOptions
Hi, aag100,
I know you are going thru a frustrating and emotional (and bankroll) roller coaster ride right now.
It's a good idea to slow down a bit - rethink, reformulate your trading plan.
BUT - I can't emphasize enough and need to repeat it again to you - hopefully you will actually read and think thru what I am trying to highlight:
(1) You need to DEFINE your trading EDGE - and begin with only defining 1 or 2 trading EDGE(s) with all of its WRITTEN rules/criteria.
This has to be clear and precise - so that a person reading the Rules can execute 100% consistent with how you would also trade that Edge(s). :idea: :!:
(2) You must trade in the context of a LARGER - and LONGER-TERM cycle of closed trades! You need to understand that your trading "career" is NOT made of single trades. Instead your trading "career" must be composed of 20-30 closed trades. THEN - look at the Net Win or Loss! :whistling :idea:
For example - when driving to a destination - you do not determine your final arrival on the basis of every single block that you just drove by. You may need to make detours, unplanned stops, refuel, etc. But your "SUCCESS" is defined over a period of blocks and miles/kms driven = to reach your end destination.
I wish I can impress upon you, and all T2W new traders or struggling traders = PLEASE = do yourself a tremendous skills-building "favor". :!:
DOCUMENT in a virtual/demo account - or live $ account but trading small enough $ size not to impact your overall risk capital - that you have the SKILL to trade 1 way REPEATEDLY, CONSISTENTLY, w/o errors or deviations!
:clap:If you can really demonstrate this SKILL on 1, 2, or more cycles of closed 20-30 trading "sets" - then I can strongly predict that you will have built the necessary strong foundational base to trade for profits, while dealing with random outcomes, losing streaks, and random rewards! :idea:
clap:If you cannot - or "will not" (just an excuse to rationalize... or "ration out lies"... to yourself) - trading success will most likely and permanently be a very random and distant painful damaging journey! :whistling
I apologize if these points are too "emphatic" - but hey, what the heck - sometimes reality and performance-based SKILLS do, in fact, require real focused effort and structure and metrics!
Good luck - I hope to read more that your processes, your results, your trading insights, are developing in the correct direction!
Regards,
WklyOptions
that is exactly what i thought and mentioned a while back.with the millions these companies spend on tech,id say its within the realms of possibility and if ever artificial intelligence is created,im sure these companies will be amongst the first.
the reason i thought that was because i sat and watched the charts and the price went up to here then down,then down to here and back up a number of times and then as soon as i got in,didnt matter when but exactly when i got in,it would do something else and take out my stop to the penny and then reverse.
as a newbie it certainly adds to your paranoia.
that is one of the reasons i no longer use stops.i dont blindly recommend the non use of stops,i now have a strategy(sort of!) based around that.
what the f****** now do is freeze the charts.i'll have a number of charts up and everything else will be flickering away except for the one which trade im in.it will freeze for a few minutes and then flicker back to life,not giving me a chance of perhaps getting a better price.again this adds to ones paranoia and anxiety,if it wasnt enough already!
but im getting better and better able to handle their handicapping tactics.if only we knew of their level of handicapping im sure we would be kicking their asses by now.
or maybe im just PARANOID! but im definetly a skeptic but not a cynic.DONT TRUST ANYONE!
