Really poor run in trading.

[Stuart14]

Hi guys,

Thought i'd start this post, see whether there are any hints or tips going I am missing out on.

My trading was going really well. I gained 11% on my trading account over a 6 week period. However the last 3 weeks have been aweful. I've given it all back and am wondering what is going on.

Is anyone else finding it touch at the moment? Pin Bars seem to fail everytime, Fibs aren't holding, retracements are faking out. It is driving me mad.

I have 1 trade live now which is a good one, but that will only bring me back to where I was early June!

 

[Mathemagician]

Sounds like trading to me. If your methodology is sound then focus on execution and the storm will pass. If not...

jj

 

[fifty2aces]

How many trades have you taken each week? If it's a lot, then that could be significant, whereas if you're a swing trader taking about a trade a week, then a 3 week drawdown shouldn't be that unusual.

Also, how consistent are your trades, in terms of winner+loser size - are most of your profits coming from a few big winners? Are there occassional big losers?

 

[Stuart14]

In total I've taken 54 trades since the 1st June. Losers are all capped at 1% of bank. Winners tend to be around 3%, i've had 2 at 5%.

I'm prepared for losing periods, draw downs etc. Just been a bit shocked over the last 2 weeks. 19 trades, 2 stop at break even, 2 3% wins and 15 losses, including 9 in a row!

So no big losers, some big winners.

 

[Chorlton]

Hi guys,

Thought i'd start this post, see whether there are any hints or tips going I am missing out on.

My trading was going really well. I gained 11% on my trading account over a 6 week period. However the last 3 weeks have been aweful. I've given it all back and am wondering what is going on.

Is anyone else finding it touch at the moment? Pin Bars seem to fail everytime, Fibs aren't holding, retracements are faking out. It is driving me mad.

I have 1 trade live now which is a good one, but that will only bring me back to where I was early June!

There will always be phases where losers outweigh wins and vice versa. One idea you could explore is to assess your current win/loss ratio and then calculate the probability of x number of losses in a row. This in turn may give you some level of confidence if you compare this value to what you currently are experiencing.

Chorlton

 

[Stuart14]

Thanks guys. Nice to get the confirmation this is normal. Back to the grind stone!!

 

[smarks999]

Well if you have 3 + years of back-testing and good risk management you should have nothing to worry about.

 

[Masquerade]

Relax, i've seen greater swings than that in a 2 day period - it's just part of trading. Just stick to the plan and don't start chasing and taking bad trades.

 

[Stuart14]

Thanks Masquerade. Smarks I certainly don't have 3 years of back testing, sorry.

 

[Masquerade]

Do you move your stops about a lot?

 

[Stuart14]

No. Not really. I'll move them up to Breakeven once i'm up the amount the original stop was away from entry (so if my stop started off 50 pips away from entry, once i'm 50 up i'll move to b/e).

Apart from that they stay put, behind my percieved area of s/r. Frustratingly the market seems to tick 3-5 pips past that at the moment, take me out and then continue in the right direction!

 

[Masquerade]

So you generally go for a stop of 50? I'd suggest you don't move your stop to break even and see what happens. If you're going for a 50 stop you should be going for more pips and only once you're in big profit is it a good idea to start moving stops. If you're on 9 losers in a row you may as well try something different with your stops.

 

[Stuart14]

My stops will all depend on the pairs, and the distance to the nearest support.

I've not moved the stop on a single one of the losers, but the 2 break evens were clearly trades I moved the stops on.

I'm trying to post a pic but failing.

Anyway, i've just taken my next trade. Short EUR/GBP at 7828 taking the low of the previous 1 hr pin. Stop is at 7852 which is the high of the pin. That pin bounced off the 38.2% Fib retracement and the 85ma. Lets see where it goes!!!

 

[fifty2aces]

So you generally go for a stop of 50? I'd suggest you don't move your stop to break even and see what happens. If you're going for a 50 stop you should be going for more pips and only once you're in big profit is it a good idea to start moving stops. If you're on 9 losers in a row you may as well try something different with your stops.

I wouldn't do this blindly - go back and look at your charts for the losing period, and consider how good your trade management was for every trade. You shouldn't be aiming for perfection, just getting a general idea, e.g. if price tends to retrace below your entry before going back in the expected direction, then you maybe shouldn't be moving stops to breakeven. On the other hand, if you find that a retracement back to the entry usually ends up as a losing trade, moving to breakeven might be a good idea.

Overall, it's best not to set stops and targets by price (e.g. 20 ticks, or breakeven) - it's much better to use market structure. If you want to lock in profits, move your stop below support or above resistance.

 

[trendie]

if its any consolation, I am finding things a tad messy as well.

agree with fity2aces use market structure for stops, not fixed pips, and recently the moves have been strong.
strangely, in such a trending market, I have been stopped out lots, and havent taken as much as I should have.

 

[Stuart14]

Over the last two weeks any trade that was in favour of the Dollar would have been a winner, a few of my trades were silly, taking pins hoping they marked the top of the dollar resurgance, which clearly they didn't. No longer trying to find the end of the trend!

Sorry just read your edit. I don't use fix pips for stops, always use s/r, fibs etc, i.e my trade posted above. The distance from entry to stop will then determine my £/pip so that 1% of capital is at risk.

 

[Masquerade]

I use a fixed stop, quite frankly if you have to enter and use a bigger stop and vary it often to cover below your s/r, fib, MA etc. then there's probably something wrong with your entry and you should be more patient and wait for the optimal position. If you miss it, so be it - you'll get another chance.

 

[Stuart14]

You've got me confused now. I take it you use a different fixed stop for different pairs? 50pips for GBP/JPN is too tight, 50 pips for EUR/GBP too lose for me?

 

[Masquerade]

No, I use the same stop on the pairs I trade. But this is only because of the spread being similar. If I was trading GBP/JPY with a spread of 7 then i'd have to re-evaluate my stop. If I was trading EUR/GBP (which I don't) then I wouldn't use a 50 stop on it as I know how slow it usually is plus it has a tight spread. I don't know what pairs you trade but I know some pairs will require a bigger stop as they're more volatile - but i'd still use the same stop on that pair and not alter it according to market conditions from trade to trade.

 

[Stuart14]

O.K cool. I'm not currently limited to what i trade from forex to commodities to indices to equities.

Can I ask which pairs you trade?