The catalyst for the ’87 crash was US Treasury Secretary James Baker’s accusation to the German government that they violated an agreement to keep their rates low in exchange for dollar stability.
The US was the world’s biggest debtor, Germany (and Japan), the biggest lender. Dollar weakness/instability equals US bond holders’ uncertainty. Hence, the sell-off.
Grant.
The US was the world’s biggest debtor, Germany (and Japan), the biggest lender. Dollar weakness/instability equals US bond holders’ uncertainty. Hence, the sell-off.
Grant.
Rhody Trader
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Sounds familiar, don't it? The difference is that right now US Treasurys have been experiencing a flight to quality because of credit concerns elsewhere.
Atilla
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Is this fact or fiction. Bundesbank is an independent bank - doesn't even listen to it's own politicians and you think it listens to US Treasury Secretary?
Don't buy it.
Bundesbank were very hawkish on inflation and they called the shots. If not we'd be back then where we are today.
Atilla,
I think we’ll agree to disagree on that.
Following the ’87 crash, an interesting quote from economist JK Galbraith:
“The prospect ...of doing anything is hampered by the fact that it (Regan’s government) believes that God is a Republican and will handle things”. Sounds familiar.
Grant.
I think we’ll agree to disagree on that.
Following the ’87 crash, an interesting quote from economist JK Galbraith:
“The prospect ...of doing anything is hampered by the fact that it (Regan’s government) believes that God is a Republican and will handle things”. Sounds familiar.
Grant.
typically it's just the boom bust stuff...the over investment ,over committment leads to a fragile position where increasingly small adjustments can create havoc...at that point people are living on their nerves even if they don't fully understand it...that sets it up everytime...the catalyst can be anything including the 'bad news' Grant suggested...it isn't that that is important...it's what happens before it...and that is pretty predictable. The only reason it isn't actually more predictable is you can never be sure on the specific timing in the sense of the cycle can be stretched/contracted in relation to the actions of the banks/govts involved.However, what goes up too far will come down ,that's why we have long run averages afterall ...LOL...the come down is the interesting part though because it can be managed through crash , stagnation ,or a combination of the two.
Hook Shot, you do a lot of analogs?
Rhody Trader
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I, for one, am not pessimistic at this stage. As of yet I have seen no evidence the long term trend higher has ended. As a matter of fact, the decline we have seen probably represents a very good buying opportunity for the position trader. I think we see at least a retest of the recent highs, if not a break through.
SOCRATES
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I've given up Trainspotting for now . ...
Markets have made new all time highs ... there's a bit of worry around at the moment so ...I just thought I'd dig a bit deeper... maybe there's nothing in it who knows ?
Not really .... but 87,97 were interesting years here we have another ending in 7. I accept that's not a large enough sample size but...hey
Markets have made new all time highs ... there's a bit of worry around at the moment so ...I just thought I'd dig a bit deeper... maybe there's nothing in it who knows ?
But I don't think you should be superstitious with any of this stuff, otherwise you'll never do anything. I haven't seen a black cat for ages, it must be 10 or 20 years.....
firewalker99
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not a large sample indeed
I got something else for you:
(1) Stock Market Crash of 1929 - The Dow falls a total of 23% for October 28 and 29;
(2) October 13 and 16, 1989 - The Dow plunges 190.50 points, or 6.9% on October 13
(3) Black Monday, October 19, 1987 and October 20 - The Dow suffers the biggest percentage loss in recorded stock market history on October 19 and initially continues its plunge on the 20th.
(4) October 27, 1997 mini-crash ("Asian flu")
October is a treacherous month, wouldn't you say
Atilla
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Did I mention I thought I saw the DOW hitting 6000 regions couple of weeks back?
I think I thaw a puthy cat... Yes I did I did I diiid.... It was black
IMHO the time for a major MAJOR melt down has never been better.
I did make +45 today by going long on the FTSE100 but beware.
I envisage a brief long spell failing to match the previous highs and a big trip down.
October or end of September is of no consequence. The only think you can be sure of is death - taxes - and a major crash coming to your screens so very sooooon.... :cheesy:
Brace your selves. Things can only get much MUCH worse.
Don't have nightmares. Simply short.
tightstops
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you still banging that drum attila?
last time you said that the dow went on a record breaking run the likes it hadnt seen for 60 years or whatever it was and what did that printout taste like?
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=22794&page=63
last time you said that the dow went on a record breaking run the likes it hadnt seen for 60 years or whatever it was and what did that printout taste like?
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=22794&page=63
Atilla
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you still banging that drum attila?
last time you said that the dow went on a record breaking run the likes it hadnt seen for 60 years or whatever it was and what did that printout taste like?
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=22794&page=63
That link sounds more like a tribute to me than anything else. You sure you have the right one as I saw that H&S reversal and re-aligned my gut instincts by chaging direction to a long.
It's all about direction and the charts. I like to think I'm like flexible enough to change sentiment based on the charts. Don't like to marry positions to losing trades.
However, neither takes away from the Doom and Gloom all around us.
Look at the price of Gold? That only happens when the **** is about the hit the fan. Somebody somewhere knows big time that some **** is going down pretty hard and fast such that it will splatter all over the floor and lay waste to good many traders.
Look at the price of oil? Wait till US hits Iran. Something big is stirring other than the banking financial crises.
Ooooh. Did I not mention the excessive sub-prime losses. Well that could pale into the background compared to what's round the corner.
Make sure you mark this thread to use against me eh? :cheesy:
fibonelli
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I'd only just finished my A'Levels in 1987 so I was a bit too young to trade!
Anyway, I found this intriguing chart from the prudentbear site. It illustrates the similar analogs across a range of markets in 1987 and 2007.
http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/1987.png
Double click to see clearly.
Anyway, I found this intriguing chart from the prudentbear site. It illustrates the similar analogs across a range of markets in 1987 and 2007.
http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/1987.png
Double click to see clearly.
