Quelle surprise, UK still in recession

[Black Swan]

Sterling tanks as more Q.E. now inevitable...

Quarterly growth of 0.2% had been expected in the figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), although expectations had been tempered by recent figures showing no growth in retail sales in September, and a 2.5% decline in industrial output in August. The unexpected decline in the services sector was the key factor behind the drop, with the distribution, catering and hotels sector performing particularly badly.

The economy contracted 5.2% compared with the same period last year, which was marginally better than the record figure of 5.5% in the previous three months.

The worse-than-expected GDP figures are likely to make the Bank of England consider extending its policy of quantitative easing.

Quantitative easing is the central bank's policy of printing money and using it to buy bonds from banks and other companies to help stimulate the economy.

"Back in August we had a worse-than-expected second-quarter GDP number and that is the reason that the Bank of England extended the quantitative easing programme," Bronwyn Curtis from HSBC told the BBC.

BBC NEWS | Business | UK economy is still in recession

 

[theSheik]

...and?

can't we just find this stuff out ourselves on the newswires rather than clutter up the boards...

 

[ffsear]

who the **** made you referee?

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Sheihk

 

[gooseman]

actually an interesting debate to be had here (UK GDP) not who made shiekh the ref.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Depends if you were surprised or not. Dodgy accounting can only go so far.

 

[gooseman]

well the market was surprised. forecast to start positive growth and comes out negative on the first look.

 

[arabianights]

if one is highly cynical this will make it easier for next quarters to be +ve coming in to the election...

More QE looking highly likely now too.

 

[gooseman]

plus the ONS have form in making gigantic errors from time to time.

don't know how to trade these markets any more-too many shake-outs. need deep pockets to ride it.

 

[gamma]

I really don't know why the current recession is referred to as the worst in history.
I do not see half the hight street boarded up as it was in the 90's recession, do not see the scores of unemployed people and countless auctions where reposessed propertiesw were being sold as low as 5000 pounds and this was in the south.
And what I read about the 30's recession it would appear we are nowhere near as bad as they had it then.

 

[Hoggums]

FTSE is up afterwards. you can almost touch the denial.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Wouldn't be hard to massage a y/y 4th q figure anyway would it? nor a 1st q 2010.

 

[gooseman]

I really don't know why the current recession is referred to as the worst in history.
I do not see half the hight street boarded up as it was in the 90's recession, do not see the sores of unemployed people and countless auctions where reposessed propertiesw were being sold as low as 5000 pounds and this was in the south.
And what I read about the 30's recession it would appear we are nowhere near as bad as they had it then.

i tend to use bars as a bit of a yardstick in determining the depth of a recession/slowdown/prosperity. i inevitably still have to queue up to get a beer. nuff said.

 

[arabianights]

don't know how to trade these markets any more-too many shake-outs. need deep pockets to ride it.

apart from on that figure itself (and you couldn't get a huge amount of size on at least not with my slothful reactions) last couple of days in SS have been hardest for donkeys, what you make of the bizzare open interest moves and the chap in Z0?

 

[Black Swan]

I really don't know why the current recession is referred to as the worst in history.
I do not see half the hight street boarded up as it was in the 90's recession, do not see the sores of unemployed people and countless auctions where reposessed propertiesw were being sold as low as 5000 pounds and this was in the south.
And what I read about the 30's recession it would appear we are nowhere near as bad as they had it then.

I agree and disagree; on first sight overall things appear OK, but we know, as Merv. K pointed out (chucking his knighthood away until the Tories are elected) that the £1 tril of debt created to bail out the banking system is a generational debt, he used the phrase a generation and decades to pay back...had that not happened (the bail out) hell and a hand cart would not describe where we'd be at...IMHO the recovery would have been quicker had a proper purge/cleanse taken place, but that'd be a whole different thread.

I've worked through 3 recessions, each one is different and your personal experiences often determine how you cope/view the situation you're in.

 

[gooseman]

no ideas at all i'm afraid. too many weird things going on at the moment in the markets as a whole. beginning to lose logic.

 

[Black Swan]

i tend to use bars as a bit of a yardstick in determining the depth of a recession/slowdown/prosperity. i inevitably still have to queue up to get a beer. nuff said.

Might happen a bit more with 100 pubs closing down a week...

 

[Black Swan]

...and?

can't we just find this stuff out ourselves on the newswires rather than clutter up the boards...

Well, I would have thought more Q.E. (sterling tanking) and the FTSE 100 not missing a heartbeat merited a discussion in general trading....hardly specific to the technical forums or forex, or would you prefer it in journals, or phsychology...?

 

[Technically Fundamental]

big breweries are still trying to raise mark ups on drinks to landlords to cope with loss of rent through closures.

 

[gooseman]

i'm still very bearish on the whole recovery to be honest. i don't think we have seen anythling like the impact we should from unemployment and these current good numbers from corporates is not a result of better sales, more like cost cutting measures-eventually this has to feed through. all this liquidity ahs to come out sometime and it feels like the economy is on life support.