-oo0(GoldTrader) said:
Hybrid Thread
Tharp teaches us to use anti-Martingale systems trading commodities. Livermore is anti-Martingale.
Ross and Bressert on the other hand use a 3 level system similar to yours.For now, click on the “The Martingale system,” weblink in the above post. Hit my links, I will put links in my posts for you.
-oo0(GoldTrader)
My understanding of "Martingale" is that you double up when you lose.
My system of trading Fx futures could not be further from this, that is why I asked you
to expand on your statement since you seemed to completely misunderstand what I wrote.
Firstly, let me address the concept of "established trend" in fx futures.
ie Euro.
In the last 768 days, the EC has been in an Up trend 25% of the time and 11%
in a Down Trend.
The odds of 2 Up days in a row are 44%; of 3 days 22%; of 4 days 11% and of 5 days 5%.
The Down days are even worse.
I do not trade breakouts since the protective stop would need to be at least one day´s range deep and the average daily range of EC is 114 points.
I enter the market by fading the turning points with an accuracy better than 77% and
a protective stop around 24 points.
Even if the TP turns out to be a fake there is a spike in my direction of ´n´pts better than
70% of the time. This spike is sufficent to cover my losses etc, by clearing out 50%
of my contracts for a target of n-1
So you see, my safest position is engineered to be my entry. Each day after that
the odds against me increase enormously.
I cannot afford the luxury of an "established trend" since I will not take a loss across
the daily range of 114 pts and therefore I cannot use a trailing stop for anything
other than emergencies.
I started trading the conventional way ( as per the books), but I could never get used to the losses and therefore never got beyond 1 contract.
It was not until I sat on a beautiful Brazilian beach one day and thought that if 100% of the people read the books and 90% of the people loss money, my approach needs to be in the opposite direction.
Back to "Martingale" I do not change my pattern or trading after a loss.
The idea of doubling up after a loss would break me out in a cold sweat.
-oo0(GoldTrader) Your thoughts would be appreciated