goose4
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He used random data to produce bar charts. He is a great computer programer.
These charts look 100 percent like real market charts. No different,using random data input.
barjon
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Just because the random chart looks like a real market chart it doesn’t necessarily follow that price action in the market is random. You could use random data to draw a diagram of a footballer’s movements on the pitch over the course of a match and it would probably look much like a diagram of a real footballer’s movements. Would you conclude that therefore the footballer’s movements must be random?
dbphoenix
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This random chart thing comes up pretty regularly, and has done so for years. I suppose it's supposed to prove something. What I find most interesting about the whole thing is that if one "trades" these charts via replay, he makes money regardless, if he has a robust trading method. Otherwise, he loses money, just as he would trading the "real" market.
goose4
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Good posts guys. I agree with you all.
He points out on the random charts you see support and resistance just like real charts,that traders look for. Elliot wave too. Its the same as real markets. A pro trader would not know the difference.He proves.A trader will want to believe what he wants to see.
Here is a comment from the video.
I traded over ten years. I had periods where I did quite well, but overall lost. I tried everything. I agree with your assessment 100%. Along the way I remember Al Greenspan say that predicting currency prices was impossible? I believe him now. I did enjoy it, oh the big dreams and the belief that I found the holy grail, many times, or so I thought.... but like you, I wish I spent my time and money elsewhere. Don't try convincing a newbie, they have to experience it themselves. Years later they will understand.
He points out on the random charts you see support and resistance just like real charts,that traders look for. Elliot wave too. Its the same as real markets. A pro trader would not know the difference.He proves.A trader will want to believe what he wants to see.
Here is a comment from the video.
I traded over ten years. I had periods where I did quite well, but overall lost. I tried everything. I agree with your assessment 100%. Along the way I remember Al Greenspan say that predicting currency prices was impossible? I believe him now. I did enjoy it, oh the big dreams and the belief that I found the holy grail, many times, or so I thought.... but like you, I wish I spent my time and money elsewhere. Don't try convincing a newbie, they have to experience it themselves. Years later they will understand.
Lee Shepherd
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@goose4,
Interesting concept, but I struggle to wonder how the f**k I and many others have made so much money over the years if its all random. How would that be explained?
On a better note though, random charts are excellent as trading demos. I've used them on many occasions and know several others that have done the same. It removes any bias's or trying to second guess the market - because there isn't one. Purely from a TA perspective only its excellent and pushes the trader and their style to higher limits.
Lee
Interesting concept, but I struggle to wonder how the f**k I and many others have made so much money over the years if its all random. How would that be explained?
On a better note though, random charts are excellent as trading demos. I've used them on many occasions and know several others that have done the same. It removes any bias's or trying to second guess the market - because there isn't one. Purely from a TA perspective only its excellent and pushes the trader and their style to higher limits.
Lee
In a sense it was a pointless exercise. The point of TA is not to predict what the market will do, though it seems so when first starting out. The real point of TA is to guide what you should do about price. So two traders can enter a market in opposite directions and use their own interpretation of the TA to tell them what circumstances to look for in order to know to get out. Both can make a profit. Its not a question of right and wrong.
So maybe in a sense, using a randomly generated chart could be a useful paper trading exercise in training. Anyone tried this?
So maybe in a sense, using a randomly generated chart could be a useful paper trading exercise in training. Anyone tried this?
Lee Shepherd
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Its less than zero sum and the market maker always wins - but that shouldn't bother anyone nor does it or would it affect anyone as we know the rules from the get go and play off the same set. The rules are set whether you make millions and take advantage of tax havens or are on minimum wage paying your fair share of taxes or are unemployed and pay no tax. Take a look at the following example.
1 village (closed to outside trade) with 100 people and 1 coffee shop that sells 1 coffee to each villager every day. The shop makes £1 per cup equalling £100 each day but pays rent (commission) of £10, therefore profiting £90 each day.
NOTE: Village produces all goods from cups to sugar, water, milk etc etc.
Without the landlord (for which is impossible), all money from the sale of coffee would go to the shop then the shop would buy its cups, water and other ingredients back from the villagers. This would be classed as zero sum, ie, what goes around within the industry or sector stays and comes back around. This is not the case in any circumstances. I assume everyone that earns money pays taxes and therefore the government takes their portion out at source. This alone makes 'our' game (the game of life), less than zero sum - Although some people will get more than others out of the game of life.
Keeping it brief, you work, you provide a service, recieve money, pay your 20%+ tax and with whats left pay other people to provide a service back to you. Of course you are already down due to paying tax. If you do not work and receive benefits (from tax payers), you are not providing a service but yet getting a property, and money to buy people to provide you a service, ie, health, police, support, housing, food, water and heating etc. This is not an attack, just a fact. Therefore this group of people benefit greatly as they give less than they receive. They are plus zero sum game, the worker is less than zero sum game.
Leading on from this:
Consider for a moment that the landlord who collects the rent is the market maker, this person will always win - from the person it collects from of course - they provide a service (the property) in exchange for you trying to make money by selling your service/goods.
Another person comes along and sees an opportunity to make money and therefore opens an adjacent coffee shop in their own trading style/system. The landlord is loving this as he now collects another £10 rent per day - the more people opening shops/trading, the more he collects. However, there are still only 100 people in the village spending £1 per day on coffee. This is the amount of money in the economy at any one time.
Shop 1 now has competition and has to ensure they do something consistently better than shop 2 to keep making money. Are they under threat?
So: we've established that the landlord/market maker always wins as long as people are making or losing money, we've also established that life is not always fair, ie, less than zero sum for most. I buy something, I lose money, I sell something I take money. Net profit and loss is different and irrelevant for the purpose of my message, however, its pertinent to note that every time a trader, shop keeper, pub etc, buys goods, they are immediately down on the money. Similarly for traders we have margin on account locked away in the trade but we also have an immediate deduction called commission and spread. Hence why entry (buying) comes second to exit (selling), regardless of profit or loss. Its more to the point of how much profit, how much loss.
There is a lot to think about in this post for those that are truly interested in excelling in this industry (and bothered to read and digest the post in its entirety), one of the major points to note is: Who has the better chance of making money, the coffee shop that is on it all hours of every day, studies constantly, educates and re-educates on a regular basis and has the capital to ensure their safe existence and drawdowns.... or the person who opens their shop with 6 months 'self taught' history, spares 3 hours a day and has a hand full of change they can't afford to lose???
Have a great thoughtful and productive Sunday,
Lee
EnlightenedJoe
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It cannot be random if 99% of the people lose. Forex is certainty and predictable.
goose4
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Agreed.
Actually 99 percent of hedge funds lose. Here is link.
https://agoraeconomics.com/2016/09/07/99-8-of-hedge-funds-lose-money/
EnlightenedJoe
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Their number is a bit off. My gut indicator says 99.9%.
If you already know, why did you start the thread ?
