Priced In Already - How does it work?

timsk

Well-known member
Mar 18, 2002
6,789
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#16
Forgive my ignorance but how does this work? . . .
Hi Nowler,
If you've not read it already, you might find this Sticky useful: Essentials Of Technical Analysis. If you don't want to read the whole thing, the section most relevant to this thread is entitled: 1. Market Action Discounts Everything.

Additionally, be sure to check out post #3: 'Other Resources on T2W & Beyond' - especially the very last entry under 'EXTERNAL LINKS' about EMH.
Tim.
 

Nowler

Active member
Sep 13, 2017
758
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#17
Personally I would interpret what was said as an opinion because there is no reference source on "priced-in". Credible analyst provides a reference source because "sources" e.g. Fed market watch actually works out the probability based on some complex mathematical inputs.
Indeed. Nothing more than an opinion.

Can you please provide me with a link to Fed market watch? I did a quick google but cannot see exactly which you are speaking of.
I was using Dailyfx to develop a routine of information accumulation but of course it makes total sense to be establishing this routine with as accurate and as credible of a source as possible. Note: I do read reports direct from central banks and whatnot. I just like to read Dailyfx to get a general understanding of where others stand.


Just to finish off on this conversation say when you are referring to a currency pair GBPUSD, it is not just about GBP prospective rate hikes but also USD prospective rate hikes. Prospective rate hikes affect bond yields e.g. on both US10Y and GB10Y which their yield spreads has a bearing on currency pair pricing. It is not some static but dynamic conversation involving many variables.
...You also have to remember that when you buy gbp/xxx you're not just buying gbp strength.
Yep.
I realise that it's not just buying/selling particular currency potential, but rather against another economy. I was just singling out potential of a particular currency. Of course good buying potential of 1 currency can be negated by more potential of another.

I just look at individual currencies and then find which I believe have buying potential and which have selling...
I then match them against their counterparts. Of course I would ideally be looking for a strong buying potential currency to pit against a strong selling potential.
 

Nowler

Active member
Sep 13, 2017
758
55
38
#18
Hi Nowler,
If you've not read it already, you might find this Sticky useful: Essentials Of Technical Analysis. If you don't want to read the whole thing, the section most relevant to this thread is entitled: 1. Market Action Discounts Everything.

Additionally, be sure to check out post #3: 'Other Resources on T2W & Beyond' - especially the very last entry under 'EXTERNAL LINKS' about EMH.
Tim.
Cheers buddy!

I have read a bit of it but not all.
I have it bookmarked now and will read over it today.

(y)
 
Dec 25, 2017
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#19
Basically big player's or banks already know the news outcomes so they buy or sell ahead of time and wait till it hits the headlines and when everyone does what's expected they off load their positions to them as a form of liquidity. OR they wait for the news to come out, let the market move to better level for them to reverse whatever is happening, if a lot of people jump in and push a market to that level, they use that against us because they'll get a better price and bigger portion of their trade on against the retail trader.
 
Likes: new_trader

piphoe

Well-known member
Oct 31, 2015
10,046
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#20
"priced in" means to me already discounted, taken into consideration and price adjusted heretfor
 

tomorton

Well-known member
Feb 28, 2002
7,051
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Exeter
#21
Basically big player's or banks already know the news outcomes so they buy or sell ahead of time and wait till it hits the headlines and when everyone does what's expected they off load their positions to them as a form of liquidity. OR they wait for the news to come out, let the market move to better level for them to reverse whatever is happening, if a lot of people jump in and push a market to that level, they use that against us because they'll get a better price and bigger portion of their trade on against the retail trader.

Assuming your view is accurate - what are your solutions?
 

FXX

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2017
1,103
175
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#22
Basically big player's or banks already know the news outcomes so they buy or sell ahead of time and wait till it hits the headlines and when everyone does what's expected they off load their positions to them as a form of liquidity. OR they wait for the news to come out, let the market move to better level for them to reverse whatever is happening, if a lot of people jump in and push a market to that level, they use that against us because they'll get a better price and bigger portion of their trade on against the retail trader.
What a load of rubbish
 
Dec 25, 2017
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#26
Assuming your view is accurate - what are your solutions?
Well if you know what they are doing that gives you a big advantage. Generally speaking you can see them "prime" a market or pair before the news release. Or you can see where they entered before the news release and generally speaking theyll off load it at a predetermined level that gives them liquidity to get out of their positions. The news just fuels them or gives them liquidity to enter or exit the Market because it attracts so many people to the Market. They need those people so they can get in and out of their positions.
 
Dec 25, 2017
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#27
Do you have any evidence to support such a view .... time machine perhaps?
Well there are simulators that play back periods of the Market. I guess I could download one and show you exactly what they are doing before news releases, etc. Most my trading takes advantage of the time the news release comes out. I generally don't care if it's good or bad news because the people who make the Market will use it too their advantage.
 

Brumby

Well-known member
May 25, 2012
600
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#30
Well there are simulators that play back periods of the Market. I guess I could download one and show you exactly what they are doing before news releases, etc. Most my trading takes advantage of the time the news release comes out. I generally don't care if it's good or bad news because the people who make the Market will use it too their advantage.
What has simulators got to do with your attempt to explain your statement that "big player's or banks already know the news outcomes"? There are multitudes of reason to position ahead of a risk event but that doesn't mean that they "know the news outcome".