Predicting short term currency fluctuations

[Newtron Bomb]

GeckoTime

Am bullish on eu$ and am trading it without a chart, a bit nerve wrecking as its my first attempts at FA and its been quite profitable so far...

As regards time frames i currently trade forex with 15 min charts, i look at the 5 min around key areas and the daily charts for a view of the bigger picture.
Longer term from the FA view point would be weeks and months
Longer term from a TA viewpoint for me would be days and weeks
Overall it depend on what instrument am trading as to how i trade it, but this is how am trading forex atm.

I normally only use TA for my analysis but i decided that i'd better at least look at FA at least once in my life as i do appreciate its uses its just am lazy and i can get exactly what i want from the charts.

 

[options]

eur/usd has tried 8 times today to penetrate the opening price and is currently pushing down again to breech that support. Because it's at a fairly important key level here, it will be important to keep a close eye on it's movements. This is pushing through now at 00.30. Just when a lot of uk peeps are tucked up in bed. The reports I have seen today had more buying in the eur, so another good reason to short then. I've been leaning to the short side since it touched the 1800's and have been putting out shorts at the appropriate places. These now look like they will pay dividends, with each trade stop being adjusted as needed.

NB. I hope you are at least neutral. You need an alarm on your computer for emergency postings m8.

 

[GeckoTime]

Have been surprised by the sudden strength in the USD over the past couple of days after it touched as high as 1860! Some of it I guess is due to the US housing data yesterday, although much of the fall seemed to happen late on Friday. There is alot of economic data out this week which will doubtless affect EUR/USD, but I for one have stayed out the market since last Wednesday when it shot up. Unsure about where it will go next, although I am tempted to go long at current levels.

The RSI seems to have broken down since Wednesday, and is no longer a good indicator. I guess it only works in range bound markets with no direction? Are there any other indicators that work well since last week's movements?

 

[options]

Try a macd.
I do think indicators are a personal thing though.

For instance a guy on another thread trading eur/usd uses bolly bands. I can't get on with them. Not keen on rsi either.

The settings of each indicator is a personal thing as well, and so important to get right. The best indicator of all though is the price and history chart. That's why I would be wary about going long around the 1800 until it breaks and holds it comfortably.
Overall I'm short, but swinging the moves if they look good.

 

[neil]

If I have the correct chart on Sierra/mytrack the CU.EU ( EU spot rate) the one or two or even 5min charts show some nice 10 point moves at the moment.

 

[GeckoTime]

Options, could you please explain how the macd works? I know vaguely but just looking for more guidance!

 

[options]

http://www.equis.com/Education/TAAZ/

That'll explain a few things for you.

 

[neil]

Forex Infomation

Forex trading - some tips

I found this article whilst surfing about

http://www.futuresmag.com/forextrader/forextrader.html

Might be of interest to those looking at forex trading

And the source of the above article is:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...6&pagenumber=31

Enjoy

 

[GeckoTime]

Cheers guys! It all helps! The more informed we are the better our chances