Predicting future FX support and resistance levels using mathematics

[gka]

Commentary on the price action of GBP-USD, EUR-GBP, EUR-USD and USD-CAD about their respective VRM levels on 26 May 2022.

Price action shown in attached charts together with VRM predicted levels.

In these charts H and L levels are solid lines, sentiment levels are dashed lines. Top, middle and bottom of trend channels are coloured blue.

Markets opened 18:00 in the attached charts.

Weekly VRM levels in the top charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom charts

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MAJOR NEWS

09:30 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

GBP-USD stayed trapped between its highest and lowest daily sentiment levels so had no direction. On GBP-USD's first fall from its highest daily sentiment level 1.2606 EUR-GBP started to rse and then made its daily high at its H level 0.8528.

EUR-USD spent the day following. As GBP-USD fell from its daily sentiemnt level 1.2606 EUR-USD followed. As GBP-USD found support and rallied from its lowest daily sentiment level 1.2554 EUR-USD also rallied.

Not much reaction on the US GDP news.

15 minute chart attached about the time of the US GDP news.

ATTACHED
1 hour charts for day
15 minute charts about 09:30 US GDP news

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For a description of the VRM and a PDF describing the VRM charts attached see this link...

Predicting future FX support and resistance levels using mathematics

I attach the VRM predictions for tomorrow for 16th July for GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD, USDCAD & EURCAD. Coloured levels are the important VRM levels. Watch out for the top, middle and bottom of the short term trend channel (blue) colliding with the top, middle or bottom of the long term trend...

www.trade2win.com

G

 

[gka]

See the previous post for commentary on the price action about VRM levels during the previous 24 hours.

Here are the VRM predictions for GBP-USD, EUR-GBP, EUR-USD, USD-CAD and EUR-CAD for the next 24 hours ending in New York 27 May 2022.

I find that the USDCAD and EURCAD give sentiment signals for the USD and EUR respectively. Judge the USDCAD and EURCAD by their price relative to their sentiment levels. Below all the sentiment levels is a bearish signal. Above all sentiment levels is a bullish signal.

For a description of the VRM and a PDF describing the VRM charts attached see this thread link...

Predicting future FX support and resistance levels using mathematics

I attach the VRM predictions for tomorrow for 16th July for GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD, USDCAD & EURCAD. Coloured levels are the important VRM levels. Watch out for the top, middle and bottom of the short term trend channel (blue) colliding with the top, middle or bottom of the long term trend...

www.trade2win.com

G

 

[gka]

Commentary on the price action of GBP-USD, EUR-GBP, EUR-USD and USD-CAD about their respective VRM levels on 27 May 2022.

Price action shown in attached charts together with VRM predicted levels.

In these charts H and L levels are solid lines, sentiment levels are dashed lines. Top, middle and bottom of trend channels are coloured blue.

Markets opened 18:00 in the attached charts.

Weekly VRM levels in the top charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom charts

==============================================================

MAJOR NEWS

EUR-USD was the initial leader of the GBP-USD, EUR-GBP, EUR-USD triplet. EUR-USD rose to its daily high at its highest daily sentiment level 1.0765 at 22:00 and rebounded. GBP-USD followed.

GBP-USD then fell to its lowest daily sentiment level 1.2593 at 07:00 and rebounded. EUR-USD followed

Finally EUR-GBP fell to its daily L level 0.8485 at 08:00 and rebounded. GBP-USD followed.

ATTACHED
1 hour charts for day
4 hour charts for week with weekly levels

============================================================

For a description of the VRM and a PDF describing the VRM charts attached see this link...

Predicting future FX support and resistance levels using mathematics

I attach the VRM predictions for tomorrow for 16th July for GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD, USDCAD & EURCAD. Coloured levels are the important VRM levels. Watch out for the top, middle and bottom of the short term trend channel (blue) colliding with the top, middle or bottom of the long term trend...

www.trade2win.com

G

 

[gka]

See the previous post for commentary on the price action about VRM levels during the previous 24 hours.

Here are the VRM predictions for GBP-USD, EUR-GBP, EUR-USD, USD-CAD and EUR-CAD for the next 24 hours ending in New York 30 May 2022.

I find that the USDCAD and EURCAD give sentiment signals for the USD and EUR respectively. Judge the USDCAD and EURCAD by their price relative to their sentiment levels. Below all the sentiment levels is a bearish signal. Above all sentiment levels is a bullish signal.

For a description of the VRM and a PDF describing the VRM charts attached see this thread link...

Predicting future FX support and resistance levels using mathematics

I attach the VRM predictions for tomorrow for 16th July for GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD, USDCAD & EURCAD. Coloured levels are the important VRM levels. Watch out for the top, middle and bottom of the short term trend channel (blue) colliding with the top, middle or bottom of the long term trend...

www.trade2win.com

G

 

[gka]

Commentary on the price action of GBP-USD, EUR-GBP, EUR-USD and USD-CAD about their respective VRM levels on 30 May 2022.

Price action shown in attached charts together with VRM predicted levels.

In these charts H and L levels are solid lines, sentiment levels are dashed lines. Top, middle and bottom of trend channels are coloured blue.

Markets opened 17:00 in the attached charts.

Weekly VRM levels in the top charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom charts

==============================================================

MAJOR NEWS

GBP-USD stayed trapped between its highest and lowest daily sentiment levels 1.2658 and 1.2624. GBP-USD followed EUR-USD when EUR-USD rebounded off its daily S1 sentiment level 1.0741 at 05:00

EUR-GBP started its rise to the middle of its short term trend channel at 0.8521 at 01:00 when it followed EUR-USD off its rebound at sentiment level 1.0741

USD-CAD made a straight fall for the day from its lowest daily sentiment level at 1.2721 down to its daily L levels.

ATTACHED
1 hour charts for day

 

[gka]

See the previous post for commentary on the price action about VRM levels during the previous 24 hours.

Here are the VRM predictions for GBP-USD, EUR-GBP, EUR-USD, USD-CAD and EUR-CAD for the next 24 hours ending in New York 31 May 2022.

I find that the USDCAD and EURCAD give sentiment signals for the USD and EUR respectively. Judge the USDCAD and EURCAD by their price relative to their sentiment levels. Below all the sentiment levels is a bearish signal. Above all sentiment levels is a bullish signal.

For a description of the VRM and a PDF describing the VRM charts attached see this thread link...

Predicting future FX support and resistance levels using mathematics

I attach the VRM predictions for tomorrow for 16th July for GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD, USDCAD & EURCAD. Coloured levels are the important VRM levels. Watch out for the top, middle and bottom of the short term trend channel (blue) colliding with the top, middle or bottom of the long term trend...

www.trade2win.com

G

 

[gka]

Commentary on the price action of GBP-USD, EUR-GBP, EUR-USD and USD-CAD about their respective VRM levels on 31 May 2022.

Price action shown in attached charts together with VRM predicted levels.

In these charts H and L levels are solid lines, sentiment levels are dashed lines. Top, middle and bottom of trend channels are coloured blue.

Markets opened 18:00 in the attached charts.

Weekly VRM levels in the top charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom charts

==============================================================

MAJOR NEWS



ATTACHED
1 hour charts for day

​

 

[gka]

See the previous post for commentary on the price action about VRM levels during the previous 24 hours.

Here are the VRM predictions for GBP-USD, EUR-GBP, EUR-USD, USD-CAD and EUR-CAD for the next 24 hours ending in New York 1 June 2022.

I find that the USDCAD and EURCAD give sentiment signals for the USD and EUR respectively. Judge the USDCAD and EURCAD by their price relative to their sentiment levels. Below all the sentiment levels is a bearish signal. Above all sentiment levels is a bullish signal.

For a description of the VRM and a PDF describing the VRM charts attached see this thread link...

Predicting future FX support and resistance levels using mathematics

I attach the VRM predictions for tomorrow for 16th July for GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD, USDCAD & EURCAD. Coloured levels are the important VRM levels. Watch out for the top, middle and bottom of the short term trend channel (blue) colliding with the top, middle or bottom of the long term trend...

www.trade2win.com

G

 

[gka]

Commentary on the price action of GBP-USD, EUR-GBP, EUR-USD and USD-CAD about their respective VRM levels on 1 June 2022.

Price action shown in attached charts together with VRM predicted levels.

In these charts H and L levels are solid lines, sentiment levels are dashed lines. Top, middle and bottom of trend channels are coloured blue.

Markets opened 18:00 in the attached charts.

Weekly VRM levels in the top charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom charts

==============================================================

MAJOR NEWS



ATTACHED
1 hour charts for day

 

[gka]

See the previous post for commentary on the price action about VRM levels during the previous 24 hours.

Here are the VRM predictions for GBP-USD, EUR-GBP, EUR-USD, USD-CAD and EUR-CAD for the next 24 hours ending in New York 2 June 2022.

I find that the USDCAD and EURCAD give sentiment signals for the USD and EUR respectively. Judge the USDCAD and EURCAD by their price relative to their sentiment levels. Below all the sentiment levels is a bearish signal. Above all sentiment levels is a bullish signal.

For a description of the VRM and a PDF describing the VRM charts attached see this thread link...

Predicting future FX support and resistance levels using mathematics

I attach the VRM predictions for tomorrow for 16th July for GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD, USDCAD & EURCAD. Coloured levels are the important VRM levels. Watch out for the top, middle and bottom of the short term trend channel (blue) colliding with the top, middle or bottom of the long term trend...

www.trade2win.com

G

 

[gka]

Commentary on the price action of GBP-USD, EUR-GBP, EUR-USD and USD-CAD about their respective VRM levels on 2 June 2022.

Price action shown in attached charts together with VRM predicted levels.

In these charts H and L levels are solid lines, sentiment levels are dashed lines. Top, middle and bottom of trend channels are coloured blue.

Markets opened 18:00 in the attached charts.

Weekly VRM levels in the top charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom charts

==============================================================

MAJOR NEWS



ATTACHED
1 hour charts for day

 

[gka]

See the previous post for commentary on the price action about VRM levels during the previous 24 hours.

Here are the VRM predictions for GBP-USD, EUR-GBP, EUR-USD, USD-CAD and EUR-CAD for the next 24 hours ending in New York 3 June 2022.

I find that the USDCAD and EURCAD give sentiment signals for the USD and EUR respectively. Judge the USDCAD and EURCAD by their price relative to their sentiment levels. Below all the sentiment levels is a bearish signal. Above all sentiment levels is a bullish signal.

For a description of the VRM and a PDF describing the VRM charts attached see this thread link...

Predicting future FX support and resistance levels using mathematics

I attach the VRM predictions for tomorrow for 16th July for GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD, USDCAD & EURCAD. Coloured levels are the important VRM levels. Watch out for the top, middle and bottom of the short term trend channel (blue) colliding with the top, middle or bottom of the long term trend...

www.trade2win.com

G

 

[gka]

Commentary on the price action of GBP-USD, EUR-GBP, EUR-USD and USD-CAD about their respective VRM levels on 3 June 2022.

Price action shown in attached charts together with VRM predicted levels.

In these charts H and L levels are solid lines, sentiment levels are dashed lines. Top, middle and bottom of trend channels are coloured blue.

Markets opened 18:00 in the attached charts.

Weekly VRM levels in the top charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom charts
==============================================================

MAJOR NEWS

09:30 US Non farm payrolls (May)

Prior to the US Non farm payrolls at 09:30 chart time, GBP-USD closed below its daily S1 sentiment level 1.2569 at 08:00 and therefore became bearish on the day.

At 09:00 EUR-GBP found support on its highest weekly sentiment level 0.8540 and was therefore bullish on the week.

Prior to the US Non farm payrolls news EUR-USD fell through the middle of its short term trend channel at 1.0746 and became short term bearish.

GBP-USD then fell to its daily L level 1.2485.
EUR-GBP then rose to its weekly H level 0.8584
EUR-USD stayed bearish in the short term and fell with GBP-USD

I am taking a break from posting VRM predictions and commentary on T2W. Anyone interested in more information can contact me through T2W.

Regards
Graham

ATTACHED

1 hour charts for day
4 hour charts for week

 

[gka]

Thought I would share the 2 min candlestick charts below of levels I calculate using the Volatility Response Model for FX (VRMFX for short). The reason I post this set of five charts showing daily VRMFX sentiment levels (dashed lines) last Thursday 16th October is that it is the most convincing chart I ever saw that demonstrates beyond a shadow of a doubt that all the FX markets are interconnected. The charts show two minute candlesticks for the FX pairs

GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURUSD, USDCHF & USDCAD

Times are New York local plus 1 hour.

As you can see, four FX pairs rebound off their daily sentiment levels at about the same time 23:06 - 23:08. And USDCHF had to follow the rest.

These FX pairs are all interconnected. For instance

EURGBP X GBPUSD = EURUSD

GBPUSD X USDCHF = GBPCHF

and so on.

In fact EURGBP features in a lot of these triplet equations. And I think this is why the EURGBP has such a short trading range.

For me there are so many more signals analysing charts from triplets rather than analysing one chart for one FX pair. For instance if you are trading EURUSD then take a look at analysing USDCAD and EURCAD. Because

EURUSD X USDCAD = EURCAD or

EURUSD = EURCAD / USDCAD

That's the fraction EURCAD divided by USDCAD. So you cannot say that EURUSD is bullish if USDCAD is rising faster than EURCAD. And so on looking at what EURCAD and USDCAD markets are doing.

gka

 

[gka]

I am posting the analysis, trades and results of the Volatility Response Model (VRM) for last Friday 5th June for the US Non Farm Payroll (NFP) in the hope that a T2W reader will be able to explain the FX fundamentals that were going on before the NFP event.

Here is a VRM recap. The VRM is a mathematical model that remains constant between consecutive high/low/close candlesticks for a set time period. I use at least 500 consecutive candlesticks to calculate the VRM and then the VRM takes one step into the future to calculate the next high, low and sentiment level. This can be done for 1 through 8 day candlesticks and 1 through 8 week candlesticks. The other result of the VRM is a short term trend channel (STTC) and a long term trend channel (LTTC).

Now for the VRM charts of last Friday with the VRM analysis, my trades and then my fundamentals questions. You will see two sets of charts attached for GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURUSD, USDCHF and USDCAD. All charts show 1 hour candlesticks for last Friday and the times are London local time minus 4 hours. So the NFP data release happened at 9:30 on these charts. The top row of charts show the weekly VRM levels predicted for the whole of last week. The bottom row of charts show the daily levels predicted by the VRM for last Friday.

The first set of charts captured at 09:05 shows the price history of these 5 FX pairs with hourly candlesticks together with my trades marked by coloured triangles to show direction. In the hour previous to the NFP I could see that the GBPUSD found resistance at the middle of its LTTC at 1.3476 and USDJPY found support at its weekly level at 159.83. These two FX pairs were showing the buy US$ signal on their respective VRM levels. There were other buy US$ signals in other VRM charts as well. So the VRM indicated to buy US$ for the NFP event. You can see the trades setup in the first set of charts.

Then came the NFP results at 09:30 favourable to US$ and the second set of charts attached at 09:38 show the corresponding price actions of the five FX pairs. I set the take profit (TP) to 60 basis points and you can see the GBPUSD and EURUSD closing in on their respective TPs.

So here are my FX fundamentals questions. Why were the five markets in the charts selling US$ prior to the NFP news? Was the market trying to close out all those trades that would be successful after the news? Did the market makers already know the expected favourable NFP news because of their own research?

gka