Predicting future FX support and resistance levels using mathematics

gka

Established member
638 4
GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD & USDCAD results for 21st June 2019

Volatility Response Model (VRM) described in the first post of this thread.


Here are the results for the GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD & USDCAD at end of day 21st June

The daily VRM charts below now only display the highest , lowest and S1 sentiments levels. These are the most important sentiment levels.

TWO FILES ATTACHED

FIRST FILE

Weekly VRM levels in the top 30 minute charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom 30 minute charts. Times are GMT-3 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

GBPUSD initially fell to its low at daily level 1.2653 while EURGBP rose to its high at daily level 0.8943.

GBPUSD then rallied to its high for the day at weekly level 1.2743 and EURGBP fell back to daily level 0.8922

Meanwhile EURUSD found support at its daily S1 sentiment level 1.1287 and rallied to weekly level 1.1377

USDCAD found support at the bottom of its short term trend channel at 1.3170 and rallied from there with some resistance at its highest daily sentiment level 1.3194

SECOND FILE

Shows the 4 hour candlestick charts with EMA channel (4.7) throughout the week with weekly VRM levels for the 4 FX pairs

GBPUSD found support on Monday at weekly levels 1.2532/1.2514 then rallied from there to weekly sentiment level 1.2731. Fell back to weekly sentiment level 1.2661 before the final rally to weekly level 1.2743

After its initial rally to weekly level 0.8967 EURGBP fell to its weekly S1 sentiment level 0.8872 . Found support there and rallied back to the top of its long term trend channel at 0.8936

EURUSD made its weekly low at about the same time as GBPUSD and rallied to its weekly level 1.1377

USDCAD fell through all its calculated weekly VRM levels down to the bottom of its short term trend channel at 1.3170 on Friday

2019-06-20-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-USDCAD-30min-30min.png

2019-06-20-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-USDCAD-4hr.png
 

gka

Established member
638 4
GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD & USDCAD results for 28th June 2019

Volatility Response Model (VRM) described in the first post of this thread.


Here are the results for the GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD & USDCAD at end of day 28th June

The daily VRM charts below now only display the highest , lowest and S1 sentiments levels. These are the most important sentiment levels.

THREE FILES ATTACHED

FIRST FILE

Weekly VRM levels in the top 1 hour charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom 1 hour charts. Times are GMT-3 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

GBPUSD made its low Thursday at weekly level 1.2662. And rallied from there to its high today at weekly S1 sentiment level 1.2734

EURGBP started the day with support at the top of its long term trend channel at 0.8968 and rallied to its high at weekly level 0.8987 before falling to its low at daily level 0.8938

Meanwhile EURUSD was trapped between its weekly sentiment level at 1.1392 and its lowest weekly sentiment level 1.1362 before making its low today at daily sentiment level 1.1354

USDCAD has at least 11 hours of support on its daily S1 sentiment level at 1.3093 before briefly falling to the the bottom of its short term trend channel at 1.3054

SECOND FILE

Show today's price actions with 30 minute candlesticks.

THIRD FILE

Shows the 4 hour candlestick charts with EMA channel (4.7) throughout the week with weekly VRM levels for the 4 FX pairs

GBPUSD started the week with support at its weekly S1 sentiment level 1.2734 before falling to its weekly low at weekly level 1.2662. Rallied from there but fell back on Thursday before rallying today to its weekly S1 sentiment level 1.2734

EURGBP spent Tuesday and Wednesday trying to break through the top of its long term trend channel at 0.8968 before finally breaking through to its weekly level 0.8987

EURUSD spent the whole week trapped between its weekly sentiment levels 1.1407 and 1.1362

USDCAD fell through its lowest weekly sentiment level at 1.3200 on Monday then fell the whole week to its weekly level 1.3077

2019-06-28-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-USDCAD-1hr-1hr.png

2019-06-28-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-USDCAD-30min-30min.png

2019-06-28-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-USDCAD-4hr.png
 

gka

Established member
638 4
GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD & USDCAD results for 5th July 2019 - US Nonfarm Payrolls

Volatility Response Model (VRM) described in the first post of this thread.


Here are the results for the GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD & USDCAD at end of day 5th July US Nonfarm Payrolls

The daily VRM charts below now only display the highest , lowest and S1 sentiments levels. These are the most important sentiment levels.

TWO FILES ATTACHED

FIRST FILE

Weekly VRM levels in the top 30 minute charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom 30 minute charts. Times are GMT-3 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

Lots of VRM signals to buy US$ prior to the NFP news at 09:30 (GMT-3)

GBPUSD broke down through its first daily low level at 1.2554 and weekly level 1.2562. GBPUSD then fell to its daily level 1.2491

EURGBP watched on for the day with support at daily S1 sentiment level 0.8963

EURUSD broke down through its lowest daily sentiment level 1.1276 early on at 04:00 (GMT-3) and the middle of its long term trend channel at 1.1264 prior to the NFP. Then fell to its weekly level 1.1210

USDCAD broke up through its highest sentiment level 1.3062 at 06:00 (GMT-3) and rose to its high at daily level 1.3137

SECOND FILE

Shows the 4 hour candlestick charts with EMA channel (4.7) throughout the week with weekly VRM levels for the 4 FX pairs

GBPUSD was always long term bearish from the start of the week as it opened below its lowest weekly sentiment level 1.2712. GBPUSD was trapped through 3rd and 4th July between weekly levels 1.2585 and 1.2562. Then fell down below all the weekly VRM levels on the NFP news

EURGBP had support at its weekly S1 sentiment level 0.8921

EURUSD was always long term bearish from the start of the week as its opened below its lowest long term weekly sentiment level 1.1383. Flat-lined 3rd and 4th July before falling to weekly level 1.1210 on the NFP news

USDCAD moved sideways through the week about its weekly sentiment levels. Its high on 1st July and low on 4th July were daily VRM levels.

2019-07-05-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-USDCAD-30min-30min.png

2019-07-05-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-USDCAD-4hr.png
 

gka

Established member
638 4
GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD & USDCAD results for 10th July 2019 - US$ sell-off and BoC Interest Rate Decision

Volatility Response Model (VRM) described in the first post of this thread.


Here are the results for the GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD & USDCAD 10th July - US$ sell-off and BoC Interest Rate Decision

The daily VRM charts below now only display the highest , lowest and S1 sentiments levels. These are the most important sentiment levels.

ONE FILE ATTACHED


Weekly VRM levels in the top 15 minute charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom 15 minute charts. Times are GMT-3 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

Lots of VRM signals to sell US$ at 09:30 (GMT-3) and then the BoC Interest Rate Decision at 11:00 (GMT-3)

GBPUSD found support at the bottom of its short term trend channel at 1.2447. Rallied to the bottom of its long term trend channel at 1.2493. Fell back to its weekly level 1.2462 then rallied at 09:30 (GMT-3) to its weekly level 1.2523

EURGBP watched on for the day with support at daily S1 sentiment level 0.8983

EURUSD found support at its lowest daily sentiment level 1.1203 and rallied to its highest daily sentiment level at 1.1225. Then fell back to its daily S1 sentiment level 1.1215. Finally at 09:30 (GMT-3) it rallied to the middle of its long term trend channel 1.1264

USDCAD broke down through its daily S1 sentiment level 1.3122. Then at 09:30 (GMT-3) plummeted to its daily level 1.3069. At 11:00 (GMT-3) on the BoC interest rate decision it rallied to its highest daily sentiment level 1.3145 before falling back to daily level 1.3069.

2019-07-10-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-USDCAD-15min-15min-1726.png
 

gka

Established member
638 4
GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD, USDCAD & EURCAD results for 12th July 2019

Volatility Response Model (VRM) described in the first post of this thread.

EURCAD added to complete another triplet. Now there are two triplets.

EURGBP X GBPUSD = EURUSD

EURUSD X USDCAD = EURCAD

The FX pairs follow each other about their respective VRM levels. Good for additional signals !


Here are the results for the GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD, USDCAD at end of day 12th July

The daily VRM charts below now only display the highest , lowest and S1 sentiments levels. These are the most important sentiment levels.

TWO FILES ATTACHED

FIRST FILE

Weekly VRM levels in the top 30 minute charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom 30 minute charts. Times are GMT-3 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

GBPUSD had support throughout the day on weekly level 1.2523. Felt resistance at weekly sentiment level 1.2550/daily sentiment level 1.2550 then finally rallied to daily sentiment level 1.2574

EURGBP As GBPUSD rallied EURGBP fell through its daily sentiment level 0.8980 down to daily level 0.8954.

EURUSD cycled between daily sentiment level 1.1276 and weekly sentiment level 1.1239

USDCAD fell through its lowest daily sentiment level 1.3066 down to its daily level 1.3026

EURCAD followed USDCAD and fell. It got trapped for 3 hours between two weekly sentiment levels 1.4697 and 1.4687. Then fell to its daily low. It followed EURUSD at 10:00 and rallied from there.

SECOND FILE

Shows the 4 hour candlestick charts with EMA channel (4.7) throughout the week with weekly VRM levels for the 4 FX pairs

GBPUSD Fell at the start of the week and found support at weekly level 1.2462 then rallied for the rest of the week. Better than expected GDP figures on 10th July.

EURGBP Followed GBPUSD and fell

EURUSD Followed GBPUSD and rallied to its weekly sentiment level 1.1277

USDCAD Followed EURUSD and fell to its weekly level 1.3026

EURCAD Rallied with USDCAD then fell on the 10th July back to its weekly sentiment level 1.4664

2019-07-12-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-USDCAD-EURCAD-30min-30min.png

2019-07-12-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-USDCAD-EURCAD-4hr.png
 

gka

Established member
638 4
GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD, USDCAD & EURCAD results for 19th July 2019

Volatility Response Model (VRM) described in the first post of this thread.

EURCAD added to complete another triplet. Now there are two triplets.

EURGBP X GBPUSD = EURUSD

EURUSD X USDCAD = EURCAD

The FX pairs follow each other about their respective VRM levels. Good for additional trading signals !

Here are the results for the GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD, USDCAD & EURCAD at end of day 19th July

The daily VRM charts below now only display the highest , lowest and S1 sentiments levels. These are the most important sentiment levels.

TWO FILES ATTACHED

FIRST FILE

Weekly VRM levels in the top 1 hour charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom 1 hour charts. Times are GMT-3 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

GBPUSD had resistance at the middle of its short term trend channel at 1.2546. Unable to drag the EMA(4,7) channel up through this level and fell to daily level 1.2491

EURGBP had resistance at its daily S1 level 0.8987 and unable to drag its EMA(4,7) channel up through this level and fell to its daily level 0.8961

EURUSD unable to break up through its daily S1 sentiment level at 1.1270 and fell to nearly its daily level 1.1199

USDCAD found support on its daily S1 level at 1.3027 and rose to its daily level 1.3112

EURCAD unable to break up through its daily S1 level at 1.4701 and fell to its daily level 1.4645

SECOND FILE

Shows the 4 hour candlestick charts with EMA channel (4.7) throughout the week with weekly VRM levels for the 5 FX pairs

GBPUSD fell at the start of the week and finally found support at weekly level 1.2380 then rallied for the rest of the week back to weekly levels 1.2537 and 1.2531

EURGBP rose as GBPUSD fell. EURGBP high for the week at weekly level 0.9043. Then fell for the rest of the week

EURUSD followed GBPUSD by falling then rising back to the middle of its long term trend channel at 1.1280

USDCAD cycled for the week with support at the bottom of its long term trend channel 1.3035

EURCAD had some support at the beginning of the week on its weekly sentiment level 1.4686 then fell to about the bottom of its long term trend channel 1.4600 before rallying back up. I suppose everyone was waiting with orders just above 1.4600

2019-07-19-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-USDCAD-EURCAD-1hr-1hr.png

2019-07-19-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-USDCAD-EURCAD-4hr.png
 

Akinozragore

Junior member
43 2
s a manual trader I use all sorts of visual aid, starting with horizontal lines in the background to easily identify support & resistance areas or a candlestick chart (to identify price rejections, new highs, new lows …).
Additionally I define relative highs or lows - I wouldn’t expect the price to turn bearish without it having reached a relative high before. I do all these things by eyeballing, not measuring and calculating. I do these things this way because I am human, not a calculating machine.
My strength is visual recognition. The computer, on the other hand, has no visual recognition.
 

gka

Established member
638 4
s a manual trader I use all sorts of visual aid, starting with horizontal lines in the background to easily identify support & resistance areas or a candlestick chart (to identify price rejections, new highs, new lows …).
Additionally I define relative highs or lows - I wouldn’t expect the price to turn bearish without it having reached a relative high before. I do all these things by eyeballing, not measuring and calculating. I do these things this way because I am human, not a calculating machine.
My strength is visual recognition. The computer, on the other hand, has no visual recognition.
Thank you for the description of how you trade. How long did you take to learn your method of trading?

The VRM algorithm described in this thread is a mathematical relationship that relates consecutive candlesticks over different timescales. You can find a description in the first post of this thread. With the VRM I know where the next candlestick can be in the next 24 hour period. The VRM provides the levels for the next candlestick.

As an example here are the results for the GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD, USDCAD & EURCAD at end of today 22nd July

Weekly VRM levels in the top 1 hour charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom 1 hour charts. Times are GMT-3 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

GBPUSD had a low at weekly level 1.2459

EURGBP had a high at daily level 0.9001

EURUSD went sideways

USDCAD had a low at daily sentiment level 1.3041

EURCAD had a low at daily sentiment level 1.4629 and a high at daily level 1.4719

All these levels were calculated before the markets opened in New York on Sunday evening.

2019-07-22-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-USDCAD-EURCAD-1hr-1hr.png
 

gka

Established member
638 4
GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD, USDCAD & EURCAD results for 24th July 2019

Volatility Response Model (VRM) described in the first post of this thread.

Here are the results for the GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD, USDCAD & EURCAD at end of today 24th July

Weekly VRM levels in the top 1 hour charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom 1 hour charts. Times are GMT-3 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

Key events in order of importance

EURGBP broke down through the daily S1 sentiment level 0.8963 at 03:00 (GMT-3) and it was buy GBP time. EURGBP fell to its daily level 0.8904

GBPUSD made its low in the 04:00 hour as EURUSD made its low at its daily level 1.1128. GBPUSD then rallied to weekly level 1.2518

EURUSD had its high at weekly level 1.1153 and its low at daily level 1.1128

USDCAD moved sideways between its highest daily sentiment level 1.3147 and its lowest daily sentiment level 1.3126

EURCAD moved sideways between its weekly S1 sentiment level 1.4653 and its lowest weekly sentiment level 1.4629

2019-07-24-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-USDCAD-EURCAD-1hr-1hr.png
 

gka

Established member
638 4
GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD, USDCAD & EURCAD results for 25th July 2019

Volatility Response Model (VRM) described in the first post of this thread.

Here are the results for the GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD, USDCAD & EURCAD at end of today 25th July

Weekly VRM levels in the top 1 hour charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom 1 hour charts. Times are GMT-3 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

The charts show why the mathematical algorithm is called the Volatility Response Model (VRM)

2019-07-25-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-USDCAD-EURCAD-1hr-1hr.png
 

gka

Established member
638 4
GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD, USDCAD & EURCAD results for 26th July 2019

Volatility Response Model (VRM) described in the first post of this thread.

EURCAD added to complete another triplet. Now there are two triplets.

EURGBP X GBPUSD = EURUSD

EURUSD X USDCAD = EURCAD

The FX pairs follow each other about their respective VRM levels. Good for additional trading signals !

Here are the results for the GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD, USDCAD & EURCAD at end of day 26th July

The daily VRM charts below now only display the highest , lowest and S1 sentiments levels. These are the most important sentiment levels.

TWO FILES ATTACHED

FIRST FILE

Weekly VRM levels in the top 1 hour charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom 1 hour charts. Times are GMT-3 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

GBPUSD fell from weekly level 1.2459 to daily level 1.2391

EURGBP rose from weekly sentiment level 0.8945 to daily level 0.8987

EURUSD unable to break up through daily S1 sentiment level 1.1150 and fell to daily level 1.1114

USDCAD found support at daily S1 sentiment level 1.3160 / weekly level 1.3160 and nearly made its daily level 1.3205

EURCAD unable to break up through its daily S1 level at 1.4681 and fell for the rest of the day

SECOND FILE

Shows the 4 hour candlestick charts with EMA channel (4.7) throughout the week with weekly VRM levels for the 5 FX pairs

GBPUSD had a weekly resistance level at 1.2518. Some support at the bottom of its long term trend channel at 1.2448. Then fell to its weekly level 1.2390

EURGBP mirrored GBPUSD on 24th July and fell to its low as GBPUSD rose to 1.2518. Then rose for the rest of the week

EURUSD fell from its lowest weekly sentiment level 1.1227 and through weekly level 1.1153

USDCAD rose from its lowest weekly sentiment level 1.3046 with some resistance at weekly level 1.3154

EURCAD moved sideways for the week about its weekly sentiment levels 1.4629 and 1.4653

2019-07-26-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-USDCAD-EURCAD-1hr-1hr.png

2019-07-26-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-USDCAD-EURCAD-4hr.png
 

gka

Established member
638 4
GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD, USDCAD & EURCAD results for 30th July 2019

Volatility Response Model (VRM) described in the first post of this thread.

Here are the results for the GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD, USDCAD & EURCAD at end of today 30th July

Weekly VRM levels in the top 1 hour charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom 1 hour charts. Times are GMT-3 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

GBPUSD found support at weekly level 1.2128 / daily level 1.2124

EURGBP found resistance at daily level 0.9188

EURUSD was trapped between weekly sentiment levels 1.1161 and 1.1131

USDCAD found resistance at its highest daily sentiment level 1.3185

EURCAD moved sideways looking on

2019-07-30-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-USDCAD-EURCAD-1hr-1hr.png
 

gka

Established member
638 4
GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD, USDCAD & EURCAD results for 31st July 2019 - FED Interest Rate Decision

Volatility Response Model (VRM) described in the first post of this thread.

Here are the results for the GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD, USDCAD & EURCAD at end of today 31st July - FED Interest Rate Decision

Weekly VRM levels in the top 1 hour charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom 1 hour charts. Times are GMT-3 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

EURGBP fell through its daily level 0.9175 at the 03:00 hours and continued falling to the top of its weekly long term trend channel at 0.9093

GBPUSD followed EURGBP and rose to its high for the day as EURGBP made its low for the day

On the FED Interest Rate Decision at 15:00 (GMT-3) GBPUSD fell from daily level 1.2238 to daily level 1.2135

Prior to the FED Interest rate decision EURUSD tried to break up through its highest weekly sentiment level 1.1161 and failed. Then broke down through its lowest weekly sentiment level 1.1131. On the FED Interest Rate Decision it fell to daily level 1.1063

USDCAD found found support at its daily level; 1.3109 and rose on the FED Interest Rate Decision to daily level 1.3194

EURCAD fell for the day from the middle of its short term trend channel 1.4661 down to weekly sentiment level 1.4596

2019-07-31-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-USDCAD-EURCAD-1hr-1hr.png
 

Adoralmeena

Newbie
4 0
I rarely use anything more advanced than standard deviation, addition, subtraction and multiplication.
Trading is (to a degree) about leveraging your strengths. If your strength is in finding statistically significant edge relationships in large data sets, then you should be orienting yourself towards that. If your strength is programming and maths you might want to look at automated mean reversion and pairs trading systems, which have quite a bit of maths involved. If your strength is objective analysis and strong trading psychology you might want to be thinking about trading methods with more discretion.
 
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gka

Established member
638 4
GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD, USDCAD & EURCAD results for 2nd August 2019 - US Nonfarm payrolls

Volatility Response Model (VRM) described in the first post of this thread.

EURCAD added to complete another triplet. Now there are two triplets.

EURGBP X GBPUSD = EURUSD

EURUSD X USDCAD = EURCAD

The FX pairs follow each other about their respective VRM levels. Good for additional trading signals !

Here are the results for the GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD, USDCAD & EURCAD at end of day 2nd August

The daily VRM charts below now only display the highest , lowest and S1 sentiments levels. These are the most important sentiment levels.

TWO FILES ATTACHED

FIRST FILE

Weekly VRM levels in the top 30 min charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom 30 min. Times are GMT-3 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

GBPUSD found support on daily level 1.2111 and rallied up to the bottom of the short term trend channel at 1.2170

EURGBP rallied from the top of its short term trend channel 0.9136 to daily level 0.9163 and then fell back

EURUSD fell back to its daily S1 sentiment level 1.1085 on the NFP announcement (9:30 GMT-3) then rose to daily level 1.1118

USDCAD had support on its highest daily sentiment level 1.3217, rose to daily level 1.3254 then fell back

EURCAD rose to weekly sentiment level 1.4714 / daily level 1.4705 then fell back

SECOND FILE

Shows the 4 hour candlestick charts with EMA channel (4.7) throughout the week with weekly VRM levels for the 5 FX pairs

GBPUSD fell from the bottom of its long term trend channel 1.2402 to the last VRM weekly level at 1.2128

EURGBP rose and passed through its highest weekly level 1.9100 and found support on the top of its long term trend channel at 0.9093 for the rest of the week

EURUSD Fell from its highest weekly sentiment level 1.1161 to the bottom of its long term trend channel at 1.1031

USDCAD cycled about its weekly sentiment levels.

EURCAD cycled between its lowest weekly sentiment level 1.4596 and its highest weekly sentiment level 1.4714

2019-08-02-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-USDCAD-EURCAD-30min-30min.png

2019-08-02-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-USDCAD-EURCAD-4hr.png
 

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