Predicting future FX support and resistance levels using mathematics

gka

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Dec 16, 2017
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GBPUSD results for 28th November

I attach the 10 minute charts for GBPUSD around the Fed Chair Powell speech. Top chart shows weekly Volatility Response Model (VRM) levels and the bottom chart shows daily VRM levels. EMA(4,7) included . Time GMT-4.

This is an example of how volatility is described by the VRM levels. The low before the speech was at the bottom of the long term trend channel at 1.2744 (blue line).

The GBPUSD then rallied to its high at the weekly S1 level 1.2842.

In between the GBPUSD spent at least 40 minutes breaking through the daily level 1.2810.

The GBPUSD was a buy today as it had already found support on the weekly levels 1.2744 and 1.2738.

I also attach the 1 hour charts to complete the picture.
 

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gka

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Dec 16, 2017
549
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GBPUSD results for 4th December

I attach the 1 hour charts for GBPUSD today. Top chart shows weekly Volatility Response Model (VRM) levels and the bottom chart shows daily VRM levels. EMA(4,7) included . Time GMT-4.

The GBPUSD started the 24 hours with support on its long term trend channel bottom at 1.2718 (blue line). By 23:00 (GMT-4) GBPUSD had found support on its daily S1 sentiment level at 1.2735.

GBPUSD then rallied to its weekly sentiment level at 1.2819. Finally falling to the bottom of its short term trend channel at 1.2660.

EURGBP and EURUSD coordinated their price actions about their respective VRM levels. And that is another story.

2018-12-04-GBPUSD-1hr.png
 

gka

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Dec 16, 2017
549
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GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD results for 7th December - US Nonfarm Payrolls

Here are the results for GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD for 7th December - US Nonfarm Payrolls

TWO ATTACHMENTS

FIRST ATTACHMENT

Weekly VRM levels in the top 1 hour charts, daily VRM levels in the bottom 1 hour charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

GBPUSD fell below its weekly S1 sentiment level 1.2782 early on and then fell below its daily S1 sentiment level at 1.2775 and was bearish for the rest of the day. Daily low was at weekly level 1.2711

EURGBP found support on its daily S1 sentiment level early on at 0.8894 and made its high at its daily level 0.8965

EURUSD had support at its daily S1 sentiment level 1.1366 and was unable to break through its long term trend channel middle at 1.1413

LAST ATTACHMENT

Show the 3 hour charts for the 3 FX throughout the week as they navigated their respective weekly VRM levels

Key weekly VRM levels throughout the week are shown.

2018-12-07-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-1hr.png

2018-12-07-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-3hr-week.png
 

gka

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Dec 16, 2017
549
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GBPUSD & EURUSD results for 11th December

Here are the Volatility Response Model (VRM) results for GBPUSD & EURUSD.

Daily VRM levels in the 1 hour charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

GBPUSD and EURUSD initially found support on their daily S1 sentiment levels at 1.2567 and 1.1362 respectively.

GBPUSD found resistance at its daily level 1.2616 while EURUSD found its resistance at its highest daily sentiment level 1.1399

GBPUSD and EURUSD then fell to their lows at daily level 1.2486 and daily level 1.1321 respectively

2018-12-11-GBPUSD-EURUSD-1hr-daily.png
 

gka

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Dec 16, 2017
549
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GBPUSD & EURUSD results 14th December

Here are the results for GBPUSD & EURUSD using the VRM levels for yesterday

Weekly VRM levels in the top 1 hour charts, daily VRM levels in the bottom 1 hour charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

Key events during the 24 hours.

GBPUSD was unable to break back up inside its long term trend channel bottom at 1.2661 and fell for the rest of the day to its daily level at 1.2538. In between times it found support at its daily levels 1.2604 and 1.2559 for short periods.

Meanwhile EURUSD started with support on its daily S1 sentiment level at 1.1357 before falling to its low at daily level 1.1283.

2018-12-14-GBPUSD-EURUSD-1hr.png
 

gka

Active member
Dec 16, 2017
549
3
28
GBPUSD & EURUSD results 19th December

Here are the results for GBPUSD & EURUSD using the VRM levels for today

Weekly VRM levels in the top 1 hour charts, daily VRM levels in the bottom 1 hour charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

Key level for GBPUSD today was the middle of its short term trend channel (daily blue line) at 1.2669. Unable to break through so GBPUSD is still short term bearish.

GBPUSD also twice tested the bottom of its long term trend channel at 1.2608 (weekly blue line)

Meanwhile EURUSD started the 24 hours bullish above its daily S1 sentiment level at 1.1359 And made its high as GBPUSD tried to break through its 1.2669 level. EURUSD fell back to the middle of its long term trend channel at 1.1364 on the Fed interest rate decision.

2018-12-19-GBPUSD-EURUSD-1hr.png
 

gka

Active member
Dec 16, 2017
549
3
28
GBPUSD & EURUSD results 20th December

Here are the results for GBPUSD & EURUSD using the VRM levels for yesterday

Weekly VRM levels in the top 1 hour charts, daily VRM levels in the bottom 1 hour charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

EURUSD started the 24 hours bullish above its daily S1 sentiment level 1.1378 and rose to its weekly level 1.1478. Then falling back to weekly level 1.1415 and then rallying to its daily level at 1.1485

GBPUSD moved in sync with EURUSD and made its high at its highest daily sentiment level 1.2708. Then falling back to its daily S1 sentiment level at 1.2633.

2018-12-20-GBPUSD-EURUSD-1hr.png
 

gka

Active member
Dec 16, 2017
549
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28
GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD results 31st December 2018

Here are the results for GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD using the VRM levels for today.

Weekly VRM levels in the top 30 minute charts, daily VRM levels in the bottom 30 minute charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

Key events during the 24 hours.

EURUSD found support on its lowest daily sentiment level 1.1426 before rallying to its daily high at weekly sentiment level 1.1467

GBPUSD followed EURUSD from its low and rallied to its high for the day at its highest daily sentiment level 1.2810.

EURGBP fell and found support on its daily level 0.8978 for at least 3.5 hours before finally dropping to its daily low at weekly sentiment level 0.8932

Lots of gaps to trade between


2018-12-31-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-30min.png
 

gka

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Dec 16, 2017
549
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EURUSD results 3rd January 2019

Here are the results for EURUSD using the VRM levels for 24 hours ending 5 pm 3rd January New York time.

Weekly VRM levels in the top 1 hour chart over 2 days, daily VRM levels in the bottom 1 hour chart. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

Key events during the 24 hours.

Large volatility in the 18:00 hour 2 Jan. (GMT-4) which took the EURUSD down to its low at weekly level 1.1311, daily level 1.1310. These daily and weekly levels agree within 1 basis point using completely different data sets to calculate them.

Rally at 20:00 (GMT-4) up to the middle of the long term trend channel at 1.1376 (blue line).

Then back down to the daily sentiment level at 1.1338 before a final rally to the high of the day at daily level 1.1411.

Lots of gaps to trade between

2019-01-03-EURUSD-1hr.png
 

gka

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Dec 16, 2017
549
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GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD results 4th January 2019 - US Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec)

Here are the results for GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD using the VRM levels for today - US Nonfarm Payrolls.

Weekly VRM levels in the top 10 minute charts, daily VRM levels in the bottom 10 minute charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

Key resistance level for EURUSD today was the middle of the short term trend channel at 1.1415 (blue line). On announcement of the NFP 9:30 (GMT-4) EURUSD fell to its low at weekly level 1.1347. This level also featured in the price action yesterday on 3rd January. From there it rallied back to level 1.1415

Meanwhile GBPUSD fell to its daily sentiment level 1.2622 before its rally to daily level 1.2729.

Meanwhile EURGBP fell to its low at weekly level 0.8942

2019-01-04-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-10min-1628.png
 

gka

Active member
Dec 16, 2017
549
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28
GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD results 8th January 2019

Here are the results for GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD using the VRM levels for today

Daily VRM levels in the 10 minute charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

For the 12 hours until 17:00 (GMT-4) the three FX pairs were dominated by their daily VRM levels. Daily S1 sentiment level featured in all three currency pairs.

GBPUSD fell from its daily S1 sentiment level at 1.2773 to its low at daily level 1.2715

EURGBP rose from its daily S1 sentiment level at 0.8968 to its high at daily level 0.9001

EURUSD ricocheted between its daily S1 sentiment level at 1.1458 and the middle of its short term trend channel at 1.1425

2019-01-08-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-10min-1727.png
 

gka

Active member
Dec 16, 2017
549
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GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD results for Friday 11th January 2019

Here are the results for the triplet GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD using the VRM levels for today

Weekly VRM levels in the top 1 hour charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom 1 hour charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

EURUSD started the 24 hours with support on weekly level 1.1496. It was unable to break through its highest daily sentiment level at 1.1531 and then fell to the middle of its short term trend channel at 1.1456

Meanwhile EURGBP rallied to its high at weekly level 0.9062 while GBPUSD fell down to its daily level 1.2703.

After making its high for the day, EURGBP fell the rest of the day to close at its low as EURUSD made its low.

GBPUSD rallied from its low and spent at least 5 hours of volatility at weekly level 1.2823 before making its high at the middle of its long term trend channel at 1.2866

2019-01-11-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-1hr.png
 

gka

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Dec 16, 2017
549
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GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD results for 15th January 2019 - UK Parliament Brexit vote

Here are the results for the triplet GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD using the VRM levels for today

TWO ATTACHMENTS

FIRST ATTACHMENT

Weekly VRM levels in the top 1 hour charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom 1 hour charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

GBPUSD started the 24 hours with a rally to its daily level 1.2918. It then fell prior to the Brexit vote to its daily level 1.2700. On the vote it rallied to its highest daily sentiment level at 1.2885.

Meanwhile EURBGP rose to its daily level 0.8972 before falling on the Brexit vote to the middle of its long term trend channel at 0.8861 (blue line)

SECOND ATTACHMENT

Shows the 10 minute chart of GBPUSD with daily VRM levels and EMA(4,7) channel. The GBPUSD can be seen cascading down the VRM daily levels.

Today was a good test for the VRM. Lots of volatility about the VRM levels.

2019-01-15-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-1hr.png

2019-01-15-GBPUSD-10min-1834.png
 

gka

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Dec 16, 2017
549
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GBPUSD results for 16th January 2019 - UK Government No Confidence Vote

Here are the results for the GBPUSD about the UK Government No Confidence Vote

Weekly VRM levels in the 1 hour chart. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

The GBPUSD spent the 24 hours trapped between the weekly S1 sentiment level at 1.2848 (red dotted line) and the middle of the long term trend channel at 1.2869 (blue line).

To begin the GBPUSD was resisted by the middle of the long term trend channel but found then support on the weekly S1 sentiment level about 7:00 (GMT-4) onward

2019-01-16-GBPUSD-1hr-weekly.png
 

gka

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Dec 16, 2017
549
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GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD results for 17th January 2019 - Third day of Brexit chaos

Here are the results for the GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD for the third day of Brexit chaos.

Weekly VRM levels in the top 1 hour charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom 1 hour charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

A buy GBP signal occurred at the 4 am (GMT-4) hour when GBPUSD bounced of its lowest daily sentiment level 1.2849 and EURGBP bounced of its highest daily sentiment level 0.8856. After that it was a buy GBP day which only stopped when EURGBP found support at its daily level 0.8763

The significance of the highest and lowest daily VRM sentiment levels is described at

https://www.complexhamiltoniansystems.com/practice.html#3rd_PointHeader

Meanwhile EURUSD cycled in the background with its low at its lowest daily sentiment level 1.1373.

2019-01-17-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-1hr.png