Predicting future FX support and resistance levels using mathematics

gka

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GBPUSD & EURUSD results for 11th December

Here are the Volatility Response Model (VRM) results for GBPUSD & EURUSD.

Daily VRM levels in the 1 hour charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

GBPUSD and EURUSD initially found support on their daily S1 sentiment levels at 1.2567 and 1.1362 respectively.

GBPUSD found resistance at its daily level 1.2616 while EURUSD found its resistance at its highest daily sentiment level 1.1399

GBPUSD and EURUSD then fell to their lows at daily level 1.2486 and daily level 1.1321 respectively

2018-12-11-GBPUSD-EURUSD-1hr-daily.png
 

gka

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574 3
GBPUSD & EURUSD results 14th December

Here are the results for GBPUSD & EURUSD using the VRM levels for yesterday

Weekly VRM levels in the top 1 hour charts, daily VRM levels in the bottom 1 hour charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

Key events during the 24 hours.

GBPUSD was unable to break back up inside its long term trend channel bottom at 1.2661 and fell for the rest of the day to its daily level at 1.2538. In between times it found support at its daily levels 1.2604 and 1.2559 for short periods.

Meanwhile EURUSD started with support on its daily S1 sentiment level at 1.1357 before falling to its low at daily level 1.1283.

2018-12-14-GBPUSD-EURUSD-1hr.png
 

gka

Established member
574 3
GBPUSD & EURUSD results 19th December

Here are the results for GBPUSD & EURUSD using the VRM levels for today

Weekly VRM levels in the top 1 hour charts, daily VRM levels in the bottom 1 hour charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

Key level for GBPUSD today was the middle of its short term trend channel (daily blue line) at 1.2669. Unable to break through so GBPUSD is still short term bearish.

GBPUSD also twice tested the bottom of its long term trend channel at 1.2608 (weekly blue line)

Meanwhile EURUSD started the 24 hours bullish above its daily S1 sentiment level at 1.1359 And made its high as GBPUSD tried to break through its 1.2669 level. EURUSD fell back to the middle of its long term trend channel at 1.1364 on the Fed interest rate decision.

2018-12-19-GBPUSD-EURUSD-1hr.png
 

gka

Established member
574 3
GBPUSD & EURUSD results 20th December

Here are the results for GBPUSD & EURUSD using the VRM levels for yesterday

Weekly VRM levels in the top 1 hour charts, daily VRM levels in the bottom 1 hour charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

EURUSD started the 24 hours bullish above its daily S1 sentiment level 1.1378 and rose to its weekly level 1.1478. Then falling back to weekly level 1.1415 and then rallying to its daily level at 1.1485

GBPUSD moved in sync with EURUSD and made its high at its highest daily sentiment level 1.2708. Then falling back to its daily S1 sentiment level at 1.2633.

2018-12-20-GBPUSD-EURUSD-1hr.png
 

gka

Established member
574 3
GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD results 31st December 2018

Here are the results for GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD using the VRM levels for today.

Weekly VRM levels in the top 30 minute charts, daily VRM levels in the bottom 30 minute charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

Key events during the 24 hours.

EURUSD found support on its lowest daily sentiment level 1.1426 before rallying to its daily high at weekly sentiment level 1.1467

GBPUSD followed EURUSD from its low and rallied to its high for the day at its highest daily sentiment level 1.2810.

EURGBP fell and found support on its daily level 0.8978 for at least 3.5 hours before finally dropping to its daily low at weekly sentiment level 0.8932

Lots of gaps to trade between


2018-12-31-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-30min.png
 

gka

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574 3
EURUSD results 3rd January 2019

Here are the results for EURUSD using the VRM levels for 24 hours ending 5 pm 3rd January New York time.

Weekly VRM levels in the top 1 hour chart over 2 days, daily VRM levels in the bottom 1 hour chart. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

Key events during the 24 hours.

Large volatility in the 18:00 hour 2 Jan. (GMT-4) which took the EURUSD down to its low at weekly level 1.1311, daily level 1.1310. These daily and weekly levels agree within 1 basis point using completely different data sets to calculate them.

Rally at 20:00 (GMT-4) up to the middle of the long term trend channel at 1.1376 (blue line).

Then back down to the daily sentiment level at 1.1338 before a final rally to the high of the day at daily level 1.1411.

Lots of gaps to trade between

2019-01-03-EURUSD-1hr.png
 

gka

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574 3
GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD results 4th January 2019 - US Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec)

Here are the results for GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD using the VRM levels for today - US Nonfarm Payrolls.

Weekly VRM levels in the top 10 minute charts, daily VRM levels in the bottom 10 minute charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

Key resistance level for EURUSD today was the middle of the short term trend channel at 1.1415 (blue line). On announcement of the NFP 9:30 (GMT-4) EURUSD fell to its low at weekly level 1.1347. This level also featured in the price action yesterday on 3rd January. From there it rallied back to level 1.1415

Meanwhile GBPUSD fell to its daily sentiment level 1.2622 before its rally to daily level 1.2729.

Meanwhile EURGBP fell to its low at weekly level 0.8942

2019-01-04-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-10min-1628.png
 

gka

Established member
574 3
GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD results 8th January 2019

Here are the results for GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD using the VRM levels for today

Daily VRM levels in the 10 minute charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

For the 12 hours until 17:00 (GMT-4) the three FX pairs were dominated by their daily VRM levels. Daily S1 sentiment level featured in all three currency pairs.

GBPUSD fell from its daily S1 sentiment level at 1.2773 to its low at daily level 1.2715

EURGBP rose from its daily S1 sentiment level at 0.8968 to its high at daily level 0.9001

EURUSD ricocheted between its daily S1 sentiment level at 1.1458 and the middle of its short term trend channel at 1.1425

2019-01-08-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-10min-1727.png
 

gka

Established member
574 3
GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD results for Friday 11th January 2019

Here are the results for the triplet GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD using the VRM levels for today

Weekly VRM levels in the top 1 hour charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom 1 hour charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

EURUSD started the 24 hours with support on weekly level 1.1496. It was unable to break through its highest daily sentiment level at 1.1531 and then fell to the middle of its short term trend channel at 1.1456

Meanwhile EURGBP rallied to its high at weekly level 0.9062 while GBPUSD fell down to its daily level 1.2703.

After making its high for the day, EURGBP fell the rest of the day to close at its low as EURUSD made its low.

GBPUSD rallied from its low and spent at least 5 hours of volatility at weekly level 1.2823 before making its high at the middle of its long term trend channel at 1.2866

2019-01-11-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-1hr.png
 

gka

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GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD results for 15th January 2019 - UK Parliament Brexit vote

Here are the results for the triplet GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD using the VRM levels for today

TWO ATTACHMENTS

FIRST ATTACHMENT

Weekly VRM levels in the top 1 hour charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom 1 hour charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

GBPUSD started the 24 hours with a rally to its daily level 1.2918. It then fell prior to the Brexit vote to its daily level 1.2700. On the vote it rallied to its highest daily sentiment level at 1.2885.

Meanwhile EURBGP rose to its daily level 0.8972 before falling on the Brexit vote to the middle of its long term trend channel at 0.8861 (blue line)

SECOND ATTACHMENT

Shows the 10 minute chart of GBPUSD with daily VRM levels and EMA(4,7) channel. The GBPUSD can be seen cascading down the VRM daily levels.

Today was a good test for the VRM. Lots of volatility about the VRM levels.

2019-01-15-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-1hr.png

2019-01-15-GBPUSD-10min-1834.png
 

gka

Established member
574 3
GBPUSD results for 16th January 2019 - UK Government No Confidence Vote

Here are the results for the GBPUSD about the UK Government No Confidence Vote

Weekly VRM levels in the 1 hour chart. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

The GBPUSD spent the 24 hours trapped between the weekly S1 sentiment level at 1.2848 (red dotted line) and the middle of the long term trend channel at 1.2869 (blue line).

To begin the GBPUSD was resisted by the middle of the long term trend channel but found then support on the weekly S1 sentiment level about 7:00 (GMT-4) onward

2019-01-16-GBPUSD-1hr-weekly.png
 

gka

Established member
574 3
GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD results for 17th January 2019 - Third day of Brexit chaos

Here are the results for the GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD for the third day of Brexit chaos.

Weekly VRM levels in the top 1 hour charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom 1 hour charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

A buy GBP signal occurred at the 4 am (GMT-4) hour when GBPUSD bounced of its lowest daily sentiment level 1.2849 and EURGBP bounced of its highest daily sentiment level 0.8856. After that it was a buy GBP day which only stopped when EURGBP found support at its daily level 0.8763

The significance of the highest and lowest daily VRM sentiment levels is described at

https://www.complexhamiltoniansystems.com/practice.html#3rd_PointHeader

Meanwhile EURUSD cycled in the background with its low at its lowest daily sentiment level 1.1373.

2019-01-17-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-1hr.png
 

gka

Established member
574 3
GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD results for 18th January 2019 - Three days after Brexit vote

Here are the results for the GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD.

Weekly VRM levels in the top 30 minute charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom 30 minute charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel
(4,7) included.

GBPUSD failed to break through its daily sentiment level 1.2994 (so was never bullish at all timescales) and then started to fall for the rest of the day down to its low at the middle of its long term trend channel at 1.2869 (blue line).

Meanwhile EURGBP rose to its weekly sentiment level 0.8835 / daily level 0.8836.

EURUSD fell with GBPUSD to its low at its weekly level 1.1359

2019-01-18-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-30min.png
 

gka

Established member
574 3
GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD results for 29th January 2019 - UK Brexit voting day

Here are the results for the GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD.

TWO ATTACHMENTS

FIRST ATTACHMENT

Shows the VRM long term trend channel (top, middle and bottom green lines) and the short term trend channel (top, middle and bottom blue lines) for the EURGBP over the last 50 days including today. As can be seen the EURGBP began its decline on 4th January when the short term trend channel broke down through the top of the long term trend channel. From the 14th January EURGBP has been falling with its short term trend channel. Last Friday 25th Jan EURGBP bounced off its long term trend channel bottom. So this week so far has been a EURGBP rally back to its short term trend channel middle.

SECOND ATTACHMENT

Here are the results for the GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD for today 29th January

Weekly VRM levels in the top 15 minute charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom 15 minute charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel
(4,7) included.

GBPUSD followed EURGBP today with EURGBP rallying from its weekly sentiment level 0.8664 up to its short term trend channel middle at 0.8747

EURUSD looked on and stayed within its daily and weekly sentiment levels not knowing which sentiment to take.

2019-01-30-EURGP-VRM-channels.png

2019-01-29-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-15min.png
 

gka

Established member
574 3
GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD & USDCAD results for 30th January 2019 - U S Fed Interest Rate Decision

Here are the results for the GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURUSD & USDCAD for today 30th January

Weekly VRM levels in the top 30 minute charts. Daily VRM levels in the bottom 30 minute charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel
(4,7) included.

The four markets as complex systems knew what the Fed interest rate decision would be in advance.

GBPUSD waited at its lowest daily sentiment level 1.3062.

EURUSD waited at its lowest daily sentiment level 1.1414 after a bounce at the middle of its long term trend channel middle 1.1407 (blue line).

EURGBP had already found its low at daily level 0.8714.

USDCAD retraced back to its weekly sentiment level 1.3211

And then the Fed interest rate decision came.

2019-01-30-GBPUSD-EURGBP-EURUSD-USDCAD-30min.png