Predict the market with 90% accuracy

[epic767]

Maybe all of you already know this that where is a way to predict the market with 90% accuracy. Because that is what W.D. Gann accomplished.

If he has done it and continually for several years (got 1800% pa on average for several yeas) it means that there is a way to predict the market.

Doesn’t it really hurt you to know that there really is a way to predict the market with 90% accuracy if one just has the knowledge?

 

[Trader333]

There are those who can correctly predict the market direction 90% of the time but still lose money. This is because the issue is not one of prediction but how much profit you make when correct compared to how much you lose when incorrect. For example if you make $10 profit on 9 of your trades but then lose $100 on your tenth trade your net position is a loss.


Paul

 

[epic767]

There are those who can correctly predict the market direction 90% of the time but still lose money. This is because the issue is not one of prediction but how much profit you make when correct compared to how much you lose when incorrect. For example if you make $10 profit on 9 of your trades but then lose $100 on your tenth trade your net position is a loss.


Paul

Well, he did get 1800% in retun on average, which sugessts that the returns on the winners were much higher than the losers.

And since he could predict the market so accurately and also got 1800 pa, I assume that the losers only deviated by a small amount from his orignal predicitons and that the losses as a result were very small and far compensated by the winners volume of profit.

Having a 90% market prediction dosnt just mean a 90% rate of winners and a 10% rate of losers,but also a grasp sense of how much profit one will earn for every trade(90 percent accurateness that the profit will be x amount for instance). The Pa he got speaks for it self though.

 

[Bigbusiness]

So is there proof that Gann was that good or is it just something that was made up to sell some of the vast amount of trading materials he seems to have produced? I have read all sorts of allegations about him, from being a great trader, to being unable to trade and only able to teach. The truth might be somewhere in the middle but it is hard to believe he was that good when he didn't seem to be that wealthy. As his "Great Master Course" sold for US$5,000 in 1954, around the average price of a house, I would have thought that if he could also trade so well, he would be the richest person around at that time. Perhaps he just knew how to spend it 🙂

 

[tommog]

I agree with what has been said here, as i move from a newbie trader status into a more accomplished trader status i am learning more and more about the value of money management, 80% or 90% accuracy really doesnt mean anything unless you know when to let your winners run. I find letting winners run far harder than cutting losses, a good scalper will have about a 90% accuracy strike rate but the risk reward is very often unprofitable, i think this is why a lot of newbies look for information on scalping drawn by the attraction of how easy it is to get a couple of points at a time out the market , but i guarantee if you learn how to look after your money you dont need to be nearly as good as Gann at predicting the market. Get the market right just 50% of the time, but have sound money management you can make what Gann made and more.

Tom

 

[fxmarkets]

hmmm is there a bigger con factor operating into todays market though ? sort of I know that you know so , more chaos .

 

[epic767]

So is there proof that Gann was that good or is it just something that was made up to sell some of the vast amount of trading materials he seems to have produced? I have read all sorts of allegations about him, from being a great trader, to being unable to trade and only able to teach. The truth might be somewhere in the middle but it is hard to believe he was that good when he didn't seem to be that wealthy. As his "Great Master Course" sold for US$5,000 in 1954, around the average price of a house, I would have thought that if he could also trade so well, he would be the richest person around at that time. Perhaps he just knew how to spend it 🙂

He allocated over 50 million dollar during his lifetime which is approximately 500 million dollar today.

Where are varios newsmagasins that have been reporting his astronomic returns
and why would someone attend his seminars if it costs as much as a house if he isn't any good?

these facts speak for itself. I don't want to be rude, but it feels like som people are just making up excuses and try to deny the possible.

This thread was actually done to encourage people to go out and get the knowledge to predict the market with the same accuracy and get over 1800% in return every year, because such knowledge is available for those trying to seek it.

 

[Bigbusiness]

People pay huge fees for courses today, I don't think that necessarily means they are worth the money. Did Gann ever claim to have made 50 million dollars or is it just the people selling his trading materials? Are you sure about your facts? I found this quote from a search and hope it is correct. Perhaps someone who has the book can confirm it:-

Quote from 'Trading for a Living' by Alexander Elder. p23

"Various opportunists sell 'Gann courses' and 'Gann software'. They claim
that Gann was one of the best traders that ever lived, that he left a $50
million estate, and so on. I interviewed W.D. Gann's son, an analyst for a
Boston bank. He told me that his famous father could not support his family
by trading but earned his living by writing and selling instructional
courses. When W.D. Gann died in the 1950s, his estate, including his house,
was valued at slightly over $100,000. The legend of W.D. Gann, the giant of
trading, is perpetuated by those who sell courses and other paraphernalia
to gullible customers."

 

[epic767]

Bigbusiness: good points, such claims have only been done by a third party. I whould however never by his trading materials since it obviously don't work. If it did work, the authour of the books wouldn't be selling his trading materials, they would be earning 1800 pa on the stockmarket instead.

That's why it so obvious and embarrasing when I see scams like this:

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Please, if you are doing so well, why the heck are you trying to share your ideas and wasting your time with this work that won't give you as much return. People who believe in this is really just to naive. And I'm a very open minded person, but not stupid.

W.D. Gann has got 1800 pa on his investments, but I'm sure he kept the secrets with himselfs, and such information is not available by all the trading materials.

here is a quote from www.investopedia.com which is only an educational centre:

What Are the Gann Studies?
In 1908, Gann discovered what he called the "market time factor", which made him one of the pioneers of technical analysis. To test his new strategy, he opened one account with $300 and one with $150. It turned out to be wildly successful: Gann was able to make $25,000 profit with his $300 account in only three months; meanwhile, he made $12,000 profit with his $150 account in only 30 days! After his results were verified, he became famous on Wall Street as one of the best forecasters of all time.

 

[Tuffty]

epic767,

"W.D. Gann has got 1800 pa on his investments, but I'm sure he kept the secrets with himselfs, and such information is not available by all the trading materials."

I see you're still a believer!

 

[A Dashing Blade]

Doesn’t it really hurt you to know that there really is a way to predict the market with 90% accuracy if one just has the knowledge?

No, it doesn't hurt me at all epic, because it can't be done. End of.

Anyone else smelling "Specially Processed Assorted Meat" in a can?

Take your b*lls*t rip-off investment schemes elsewhere please.
😡

 

[Directional]

it feels like som people are just making up excuses and try to deny the possible.

This thread was actually done to encourage people to go out and get the knowledge to predict the market with the same accuracy and get over 1800% in return every year, because such knowledge is available for those trying to seek it.

just because such returns are possible doesnt mean that you or anyone will necessarily find the same or similar returns, even in much the same way that it might be possible for a competition fisherman to land a huge prize bass - indicating that such a feat is also possible, but not necessarily replicateable by anyone else.

 

[epic767]

A dashing Blade: give me evidence why it's not possible =)

There is evidence that he got really big returns.

 

[epic767]

just because such returns are possible doesnt mean that you or anyone will necessarily find the same or similar returns, even in much the same way that it might be possible for a competition fisherman to land a huge prize bass - indicating that such a feat is also possible, but not necessarily replicateable by anyone else.

It's still possible becuase the human mind doesnt change over a couple of decades.

 

[Directional]

the markets do though. market dynamics of today are way different from what they were back in the early 20th century when Gann was trading. Just look at the difference between the markets of 1998-2000 and 2004-2005 - what worked 5/6 years ago wouldnt work in todays markets.

 

[trendie]

epic,

nothing works. and everything works.

If Gann was so good, then why dont other Gann specialists replicate the 1800% pa returns ?
If Gann traders were so good, the big banks would probably have head-hunted most of them.
If Gann "kept his secrets to himself", then unless someone rediscovers them, nobody is going to get 1800% pa returns.
If YOU have rediscovered Ganns secrets, you would be too busy making 1800% pa returns to bother posting.

I have looked at Gann, And I cant make it work. This does not mean nobody can make it work.
The patterns and angles look lovely AFTER the event.
There are so many lines and angles, you are going to get a hit sooner or later.

This is similar to Fibonacci ratios. There can be so many, that you will find correlations.
( I personally use only 1.618 and 0.618 Fibs - NO MORE. Otherwise I end up fooling myself.
Although I find no value in Gann generally, I must admit there seems to be a good correlation when looking at charts when seen from solstices/equinoxes. But this is large timeframe.
For shorter time-frames, I find Marc Rivallands variation on Ganns 3-bar reversals more useful. )

If you do use Gann, you tend to use other mechanisms to cross-verify.

nothing works. and everything works;
I have found that any idea or indicator can make money. Its your money management that will keep you ahead of the game.

If you use Gann - fine. Trade the signal. But, if it is wrong, get out quickly. Sooner or later a trade will run in your favour.
If you use Fibs - fine. Trade the signal. But if it is wrong, get out quickly. Sooner or later a trade will run in your favour.
If you use Ross Hooks - fine. Trade the signal. But if it is wrong, get out quickly. Sooner or later a trade will run in your favour.

Get the idea ??

( Why did it take me so LONG ( three years ), and so MUCH ( several thousands ), to understand that !! ) 🙂

NB: Still learning. Still trading.

 

[Directional]

great comment Trendie.

Check out the Gann chart I posted in the traderpedia... I'd love to know how people make that work for 90% accurate trading.
http://www.trade2win.com/traderpedia/Gann

 

[epic767]

I;m quite sure that one can't learn gann's secret by reading all the books, because if his method was available and you could earn 1800 in return, everyone would do it. That's evidence that gann kept the secret to himself. What I want to stress is that I think it's possible to get the same returns If one has the knowledge, that's what distinguish a sucesfull investor in comparison to a loser after all.

But yes the market dynamics change all the time and being a sucesfull investor is about understanding the market variables and adapt to any changes. Everything can be described in mathematical terms,remember that.

 

[A Dashing Blade]

I;m quite sure that one can't learn gann's secret by reading all the books, because if his method was available and you could earn 1800 in return, everyone would do it.

No sh*t Sherlock. 🙄

That's evidence that gann kept the secret to himself.

No it's not. It's a supposition based on a rumour.

-Anyone else see this thread going the same way as the Blue Parrot sketch?-

 

[neil]

Monty Python says....

No sh*t Sherlock. 🙄



No it's not. It's a supposition based on a rumour.

-Anyone else see this thread going the same way as the Blue Parrot sketch?-

It's dead I tell you 😉