Best Thread Potential setups

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Gbpjpy

I think this is a really nice setup even if you are not a "swinger". I hope we clear this trendline.
Nic

Here's a 'potential setup' for you swingers.... possible inverted H&S on weekly gbpjpy ;)
 

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Excellent stuff as ever TD and thanks for the refinement!
I have often wondered if it may be better to wait for the retracement into the pin bar and then get into the trade? Would this not then stop people moving stops to be etc? I know of a guy who employs this strategy - sometimes he misses the big moves that don't retrace but he's happy with that.
I've had my fingers burnt on the 5m and to some extent the 15m. My mate said the FX traders at his firm don't ever trade FX with their own money - they call it Bandit Country! The private trader, in my view, just doesn't have the time or skill to mess about with the big-boys scalping the 5m TFs. They just get skinned alive!
I think the key skills that a good trader needs to ensure he/she has are:
1. Patience
2. Discipline
3. More patience - like TD said, without patience (waiting for the very best set-ups) you'll find yourself 'drifting' into the 5m TFs etc looking for a trade that's not there. I've been there and learnt the hard way that it's for losers. Period.

Tom, btw, are there any refinements to your strategy that you've learnt since trading for a living, or are all the old rules still extant? What pins would you know pass on? Would you consider tweezer tops/bottoms on good SR/Fib confluence the same as a pin (ie rejection of that level)? What about IBs and outside bars at the same levels?

Great posts btw, keep up the good work!
Grim
 
Can T2W sink any lower

Let me tell you one more thing that I have been saying since I started "Making Money Trading" but which few people seem to actually listen too! lol.

The other day the head of our firm, a veteran trader who has taken millions out of the market, who wants us to make money since he is backing us with his capital, FORBID US to use the 5m TF or lower.

Forget the lower TFs.

Leave them to the traders that have been trading for years and are very experienced.

Make money on the higher TFs.

The very lowest you should be going is 1hr

You should be looking only at 4hr and Daily and Weekly at first.

Let me say that again.

NEVER LOOK BENEATH THE 1HR TIMEFRAME WHEN YOU ARE NEW TO THIS GAME.

(and if you are not profitable yet, consider yourself NEW to this game)

Forget that cr*p about wanting to refine your entries.

It is much, much, much harder to trade successfully on this TF when you are new to trading.

Do not even attempt it.

Trust me on this. Trading the higher TF is the easiest and least stressful way of trading.

Again. It is the EASIEST and LEAST STRESSFUL way of trading.

Why does LEAST STRESSFUL matter?

Because STRESS every two minutes causes emotional responses.

Emotional responses are detrimental to your P&L.

Higher TF analysis gives you TIME to make reasoned and logical assumptions about where the market will go next.

Use fixed percentage risk management so that the bigger stops in pip size mean nothing in monetary terms and remember this is a marathon and not a race.

Making twenty pence per day is acceptable while you learn and grow your account. Do not try to jump on the 5m to take every swing.

I tell you it does not take long to compound an account from trading at 50 pence a day to having thousands and being able to trade at much higher stakes...if you do things right and use this strategy in the way I have taught you can run an account from next to nothing to a level you can LIVE OFF in six months.

I would rep. this post but it seems I have to "spread it around " first.
Smut I tell you. Sharkey is running a den of iniquity:eek:
 
Hi TD,

I agree with you. I have been using the strategy that you have taught for approximately 3 months trading on the daily TF. I have started small sometimes doing 30/50p a pip I rarely do over £1 a pip but I have moved my account from £500 to almost £700. This may not be a huge amount but I probably only do 1 or two trades every fortnight due to there not being many set ups on the daily TF.

This strategy works. Don't get me wrong I have losing trades but my winners win big. At the end of the day we have to pick what works for us but I like the fact that I can place a trade at the end of the night check it in the morning when I wake up and look at it in the evening when I come back from work. I trade on the hourly TF when I have time off work (which isn't often) and I find it a lot less stressful than trading on 5mins which is what I use to do.

But once again we all have to pick what works for us. But for me if it isn't broken, don't fix it. Happy trading to all for the week ahead.

Mr Whizpar,
500 to 700 is a VERY GOOD return, think about what you have acheived here. You have started with a ridiculously small account but managed to grow it. Almost impossible. 1 or 2 trades every fortnight sounds about right. There is nothing wrong with 1 or 2 trades every fortnight...... people often think they have to trade more to make more, the inverse is true i am afraid. This forum (not this thread) promote overtrading in my view. Stick with what you are doing here. By the sounds of it, you are doing this method SPOT ON. And dont be fooled, 30p per point or 50p per point is more than you think........ GBPUSD moves 300 pips a day so if anything 30p/50p is too big. Let me explain - If you were to put on a 200tick stop on a daily pin (which is currently likely), you are already risking 100 quid..... that is 20% of your account(ish)....... which is WAY TOO MUCH. But i guess you dont have much choice if 500 is all you have.

Trader Dante speaks about it from time to time but you really shouldnt be risking more than 1% of capital per trade. Which is really still too much. 0.5% or 0.25% on any trade is a far better level and not just because of the possible drawdown but also for the mental impact.

If you risk 20% of your account on a trade, each trade becomes "make or break" and hence you squeeze in your stops, go to breakeven too soon and take profit too soon. Plus, a run of 5 losing trades and you're out. Trade less than 1% and you can manage your trades un-emotionally. Which is ABSOLUTELY essential.

Just KEEP IT UP...... risk less if you can..... WATCH THE MARKET AND ANALYSE WHAT YOU COULD HAVE DONE BETTER.

Nice work. I'll shut up now and go back to lurking around on here.....
 
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Hi Omni,

Thanks for your advice. I won't lie I currently risk between 3-10% per trade. How much I risk depends on how good the set up looks and how much I am comfortable to lose. Being comfortable with my risk is a big thing for me - I think appreciating that you could lose is key. I plan to reduce my risk per trade as my account gets bigger.

I have noticed that people are talking about setting a stop at break-even, I use to do this quite a lot i.e. put my stop at BE as soon as it went into profit but a big reason why I did it was the fear of the trade becoming a loser. I found at the begining that a lot of my trades would hit my stop @ BE then go on to make a good amount of pips. I now just let my trades ride the market and I move my stop when I hit one of my targets if I can't take the ride I just close the trade and take my profit of the table.

It might sound strange to some but making break-even almost feels like a losing trade to me. Happy trading to all.

Whizpar
 
Break out and a 1hr pin?

I think this is a really nice setup even if you are not a "swinger". I hope we clear this trendline.
Nic

Hmm, its moved EJ!
Dollar seems to be week across the board, do we have a break out or another step up?

Sorry I was refering to EURJPY and I put a chart in but it didn't appear, Doh!. I'll get me coat!
 
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OK, that's it for me on this board until I am out of this position as I really don't want anything to effect my decision making. This position I have is a huge one and certainly the biggest I have taken.

Targets:

I'm going to close 1/3 of my Dow at 7200 which I expect we will reach by the end of the week.

That's just above the major 2002 lows (and the all time low since the inception of the YM contract).

I'll take the second third out just ahead of the 1997 lows (6971 in the DJI cash).

A final target for me on the third will be 5200 on the DJI which is the 1996 low on the monthly.

Stops: Currently all above 7960.

First target was almost reached (came within 28 ticks). It looked to me on Friday evening like we are setting up for a rally in the early part of this week. Possible retest of the 7800 breakout area. That would be wonderful!

With this in mind, I closed out 1/3 of my total position on Friday before the close at 7340.

Still holding the rest with stops at 7965. Looking to get short again on a rejection of 7800.
 
Hi Omni,

Thanks for your advice. I won't lie I currently risk between 3-10% per trade. How much I risk depends on how good the set up looks and how much I am comfortable to lose. Being comfortable with my risk is a big thing for me - I think appreciating that you could lose is key. I plan to reduce my risk per trade as my account gets bigger.

I have noticed that people are talking about setting a stop at break-even, I use to do this quite a lot i.e. put my stop at BE as soon as it went into profit but a big reason why I did it was the fear of the trade becoming a loser. I found at the begining that a lot of my trades would hit my stop @ BE then go on to make a good amount of pips. I now just let my trades ride the market and I move my stop when I hit one of my targets if I can't take the ride I just close the trade and take my profit of the table.

It might sound strange to some but making break-even almost feels like a losing trade to me. Happy trading to all.

Whizpar

You sure you're a "newbie" ;)
 
Here's a 'potential setup' for you swingers.... possible inverted H&S on weekly gbpjpy ;)

Hope someone took the opportunity, easy < 40 pip stoploss entry and up now, ooh, 450 pips :cheesy:
 

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My North Finance feed shows a weekly pin on eur/usd but a 4hr pin too. Conflicting signals.

I would have thought that the longer timeframe overrides the shorter one.... eventually. No reason why both can't be profitable or at least b/e with correct trade management.

I have opened a long term buy and hold for eu based off the weekly.... but I am still learning so we shall see.
 
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Right, I'm getting short again at the same price I closed. This looks like its about to tank...again.
 

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Skelly22 called the top of the Oil market. Rollsafe called the top of the EUR/GBP. I bet there has been loads of tops and bottoms others called that I've forgotten too.

Jesus, between the lot of us on here, we've got it all covered :)

You know, some will say "even a stopped clock is right twice a day" about some calls...but then again, you only have to be right one in ten times to make a fortune!!

:)

Good going guys. Some great calls on this thread.
 
The Top of the OIL Market is called here July 11 2008

Holy S@it Rollsafe- thanks for posting that. I didn't take that pin as i don't actually trade crude- too crazy for my account size!! I wish i was as per your foot not Still holding a position!

Hope someones making something out of it!! that would make up for a looooooot of bad trades/ small losses etc.
Cheers Roll

While i'm at it I want to publicly give my thanks and shown my appreciation to Tom for everything he has been so kindly doing on this and his other threads here for the last year (this month actually) that i've started trying to learn to trade and been having around here. I have been trading forex with micro size and am up 25ish % which is not great but atleast im learning and haven't blown my account yet!! I find myself trading breakouts with the trend more so for the last few months but try to watch the levels as Tom has been teaching.

Tom, your both a gent and a scholar! thank you :clap:(y)
 
While i'm at it I want to publicly give my thanks and shown my appreciation to Tom for everything he has been so kindly doing on this and his other threads here for the last year (this month actually) that i've started trying to learn to trade and been having around here. I have been trading forex with micro size and am up 25ish % which is not great but atleast im learning and haven't blown my account yet!! I find myself trading breakouts with the trend more so for the last few months but try to watch the levels as Tom has been teaching.

Tom, your both a gent and a scholar! thank you :clap:(y)

25% is a fantastic return, mate. Remember, it's not about the money you make, it's about the pips. You can up the size when you are experienced and confident and you know your expectancy.

Keep your risk management tight and keep taking high probability setups.

And always try and watch the levels.

If you start at the right hand side of the chart, look at each swing high and each swing low and follow it back to the left with your eye...you are trying to see if price has reacted to that level previously.

Look at chart 1 of the GBP (hourly). Your eye starts at the right hand side and you can see the swing low (marked with the red arrow pointing up).

Follow this to the left with your eye and you will see that it lines up with a swing high (two in actual fact) that are marked with the red arrow pointing down.

Now look at chart 2. Once this level has been put in, you wait for the price to come back and react to it (blue box). You know when it is falling into it that you are looking for a long signal. Look how this rockets when it hits this area.

If it should break, it is NOT a signal to sell, it is a chance to sit up and take notice what happens next. You should then see it come up and test the level from the other side. In this case it would be from below if it had broken.

Wait for the levels and study the price.

Price will almost always react off a good level. If you are long and you have a strong level above, maybe you could take some partial profits and re-enter later if it goes through and you get another signal...or maybe you can tighten your stop (I like to move to the low of the candle that pierces and CLOSES above the level. The secret of this exit strategy is that it keeps you in a good trend because it allows price room to come back and retest the level and then continue on up. (reverse all this if you are short)

But don't HOPE it will go through levels. React to what the market is telling you.

Find your comfort zone and a way you like to trade.

That is what this game is about.

And remember: when you are in a trade or thinking about taking one - make a BUSINESS decision.
 

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So, I re-entered the Dow short that I took off earlier.

Here is a screenshot with ALL my entries marked on it.

Every single one is still open and running.

The S&P came 0.75 points from its NOVEMBER LOW this evening.

Tomorrow is going to be decision time. Either we will bounce here or there is going to be a whole lot of pain to come.

Good luck to everyone.
 

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