Best Thread Potential setups

[ilplusq]

ACHTUNG ALLES Pinbarhunters!

Firstly, I thank all veterans who repped me. I started trading from scratch less than 6 month ago and I have a long way to go. Your approval of my charts is definitely mood-upgrading for a beginner who trades alone. Now to the point:

GBPCAD: Price rejected at the level of previous support on Feb 2. The level is dashed on the charts because it is not a significant level yet, although there is a confluence with 61.8% fib from Jan low. A so-so pinbar has formed on the Daily chart. If you look up from the pin, there is a forest of S/R pivots, and then there is a potential TL. So I ask myself, what is the chance of getting anywhere near 1:1 R:R or better here? - there is harldly any room. This is not the kind of setup I would take, even if the pinbar was 5/5. I hope others will join me in showing that pinbars mean nothing by themselves, which I already learnt the hard way. Look forward to your comments.

(weekly chart included for bigger picture)

-Ilya

 

[ilplusq]

Next week: GBPUSD

I'll add to bbmac's post two hours ago:
Before the day ended, the price proceeded to kiss the major 1.5248 S/R pivot to the pip. Rejection is visible on the Hourly in a form of a pinbar. There is a lot of potential to the downside: 1.5197 (possible re-test from the top) / 1.5049 / 1.5000 (for round number). The yellow box on the Daily is my best-case scenario for this trade.

I would love to get some advice on entering this trade. I already missed an entry before the market closed and I am afraid it's going to gap. Then I will wait for the price to try to close the gap and will look for an entry.

-Ilya

 

[bbmac]

Gbpusd - Technical position at Friday close

Yeh, re post above, Friday's daily candle closed as a Bullish engulfing of previous day's 2 day's bodies, including Thursday's bearish candle. Price indeed sits just off the Friday Hi of 5248 being in the previous Daily swing hi area=prev res=potential resistance shown in post #6894 and at the start of the previous Daily swing low (24th Oct 08) =previous support zone, (shown in post #6897 above by ilplusq )that subsequently failed to act as potential sbr as price made a swing hi above it on 17th Dec 08., from a LL in the then strong downtrend seen on the 4th of the same month

Certainly there is potential for a retrace/pullback or more from this potential resistance zone on the daily, (as mentioned in post #6498) being that previous swing hi zone (shown in 2nd pic of Daily chart below as area A,) that extends to around 5370 area with the 23.6%fib of the 1162-3505 fall in there at around 5300.

The 1hr chart below shows the near term previous and most obvious imbalances of supply/demand and demand/supply of varying potential strengths as future potential res/sbr and supp/rbs represented on this 1hr chart, as well as fibs of the swings up from 4512, 4700 and 4940 to Friday's Hi @ 5247/8 area.

The 5195-52 area is a previous swing hi=previous resistance =potential rbs zone that is co-existent on the 4hr chart, and probably the most obvious first area for any pullback to find support for any renewed strength in the uptrend.There is the 23.6% of the 4941-5247/8 move in there at 5175 and a steep 1hr ascending trend line cuts through as well. (Opening gap down excepting.)

Time frames from 15min through to the daily ( 3 x HH now) and arguably weekly chart are in an uptrend per peak/valley analysis and macd signal lines remain crossed above the zero axis and pointing strongly up from 15min to the weekly chart now.

The major swings up from the 3505 low for fib plotting purpsoes are from swing lows at 3505, 3639, 4111 and 4396 all to the current 5247/8 hi.

Interestingly too, as shown in the 2nd pic price has reached the 200ma on the daily chart (considered by some tech analysts to be the 'fair value' ma. Shown are the 200ema [exponential] (dotted aqua) and 200sma [simple] (aqua line) on that chart.)

Above that area A (shown on 2nd pic below and discussed above,) is the 61.8% fib of 6696-3505 fall @ 5459
and another previous daily swing hi=prev res=potential resistance zone 5572-5718 (marked as area B on that 2nd pic below)

Price remains above the monthly pivot at 4703 area, and the current average daily range of the instrument is 214pips, average weekly range 513 and average monthly range 1101. (These figures are the averages of the 5,10 and 20 period averages)

G/L

 

[grimweasel]

Firstly, I thank all veterans who repped me. I started trading from scratch less than 6 month ago and I have a long way to go. Your approval of my charts is definitely mood-upgrading for a beginner who trades alone. Now to the point:

GBPCAD: Price rejected at the level of previous support on Feb 2. The level is dashed on the charts because it is not a significant level yet, although there is a confluence with 61.8% fib from Jan low. A so-so pinbar has formed on the Daily chart. If you look up from the pin, there is a forest of S/R pivots, and then there is a potential TL. So I ask myself, what is the chance of getting anywhere near 1:1 R:R or better here? - there is harldly any room. This is not the kind of setup I would take, even if the pinbar was 5/5. I hope others will join me in showing that pinbars mean nothing by themselves, which I already learnt the hard way. Look forward to your comments.

(weekly chart included for bigger picture)

-Ilya

Look at daily EurCad and Cadchf - both point towards CAD weakness next week in my opinion. Wait for a nice DBLHC on USDCAD to get in long maybe. That pair still looks bearish as hell!

 

[bbmac]

I would love to get some advice on entering this trade. I already missed an entry before the market closed and I am afraid it's going to gap. Then I will wait for the price to try to close the gap and will look for an entry.

Xe.com is already quoting a lower figure than the 5229bid close (close dependant on your broker), see screenshot below: Some time to go and their price could change but it suggests a gap down at next open?

If such a large opening gap occurs it would put price at a previous 1hr minor swing hi/lo zone circled in white in picture below, (5067-31) inbetween 2 fibs 23.6% 4512-5245 @ 5073 and 38.2% of 4700-5245 @ 5058. There are further fibs below that shown on this chart and also of the moves up to current 5245 Hi from the swing lows mentioned in post #6898 above, not shown.

The next obvious previous imbalance of supply/demand then demand/supply is shown at the area circled lowest on the chart below represented as the previous 1hr swing hi/lo zone (4976-40 area) that is co-existent on the 4hr chart. In that lower zone (circled) there are the 2 fibs shown in the pic below as well as the 23.6% of the major 4106-5245 swing hi, so a possible fib cluster with the confluence of the previous imbalance of demand/supply?

Another possible support zone is the blue zone at bottom of the 1hr chart below:
4853-25 prev 1hr sw lox2 zone
4853 23.6% 3505-5245
4829 76.4% 4700-5245

And just above that a 2 fib cluster (if 2 fibs can be called a cluster)
4888 23.6% 3639-5245
4880 50% 4514-5245

G/L

 

[ilplusq]

Thanks, bbmac. I will be watching those on open.

 

[trader_dante]

Xe.com is already quoting a lower figure than the 5229bid close (close dependant on your broker), see screenshot below: Some time to go and their price could change but it suggests a gap down at next open?

They've got that wrong.

No way is it opening down there.

 

[Depth Trade]

I'm sorry to announce this after almost 900 pages but I would advise anyone that hasn't done so already, to abandon this strategy after reading this: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/first-steps/60664-pins.html

-Tom

Trader Dante I told you, you were full of sh!t a year ago!!

Yeah, your a fraud.

 

[rawrschach]

*you're

now **** off

 

[Depth Trade]

*you're

now **** off

Awww, I suppose if I tell you the Easter Bunny doesn`t exist, your going to blame me.

What are going to do now, cry?

 

[trader_dante]

Trader Dante I told you, you were full of sh!t a year ago!!

Yeah, your a fraud.

LOL Such a fraud...but you're still busy reading my threads...

Dude, I told you (maybe not quite a year ago) - put your money where your mouth is.

If you can make even 1/3rd of what I can in double the time, I will publicly announce I'm a fraud.

Alot of people just read that.

Why don't you step up to the post?

P.S. Have you finished cleaning the toilets at the Merc?

 

[Depth Trade]

LOL Such a fraud...but you're still busy reading my threads...

Dude, I told you (maybe not quite a year ago) - put your money where your mouth is.

If you can make even 1/3rd of what I can in double the time, I will publicly announce I'm a fraud.

Alot of people just read that.

Why don't you step up to the post?

P.S. Have you finished cleaning the toilets at the Merc?

Little boy you have yet to meet me on my challenge to make 10 FX trades in a row, since then I have already made 7 and you have yet to make even one.

I`ve gone over your thread, you make calls, then never follow up on the position.

You are b ull sh it and it`s only a matter of time until you blow out or you a laughed out of here.

 

[Depth Trade]

I say it again, make 10 FX calls in a row with exact entrance, stop and exit or target time.

Watch, you will not be able to do it.

 

[bbmac]

They've got that wrong.

No way is it opening down there.

Yeh, I did raise an eyebrow when I saw it - would be a big opening gap down, but have done the analysis just in case.

 

[foredog]

Trader Dante I told you, you were full of sh!t a year ago!!

Yeah, your a fraud.

Who cares which one of you has the biggest balls, account balance, winning streak etc.

If people choose to follow Dante's calls it's up to them to be sure they do (on average) make money. If he was charging it would be different.

On the whole this personal vendetta between the pair of you is rather tedious.

And before either of you asks i don't want a trading challenge as i'd probably lose and bow beneath both of your awesome trading prowess.

 

[Claudia123]

I say it again, make 10 FX calls in a row with exact entrance, stop and exit or target time.

Watch, you will not be able to do it.

Why the hell should he this aint a game show its a forum. The guy makes interesting posts and I sure have learned a few things. Keep the posts coming dante.

 

[trader_dante]

Why the hell should he this aint a game show its a forum. The guy makes interesting posts and I sure have learned a few things. Keep the posts coming dante.

wtf!
I thought this was a game show!!
I'm in the wrong place

 

[vinicius]

I dont see why some of the guys like to try Tom look bad.. This is nonsense..

Tom is a nice guy, I dont know if he does good trades or not, if he is making money or not, if he follows what he says or not, and I DONT want to know.. The reason I like him is because he likes to HELP people and he gives a lot of attention, some times to people who is lazy to find out the questions.. Because of that I think he is a good person, with good caracter if you know what I mean..

If you dont like what he says or have a personal problem just click below his name and ignore him, easy as that....

IMO the people who came here and try to make him look bad is just jealows of the attention he got.. ****! This ego bull**** makes me (everyone) tired...

I`m here to learn how to make money and not to be the smart ass in a ****ing forum! Got the point?

 

[MrGecko]

wtf!
I thought this was a game show!!
I'm in the wrong place

No you're not - GAAAAMMMMMMBBBBBBBLLLLLLLEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Claudia123]

wtf!
I thought this was a game show!!
I'm in the wrong place

lol i on your side. It is a game show - now shall we cut the cards for a high or low on monday on the bund