Best Thread Potential setups

[bertie123]

berti,

I definetly still use them. They are so powerful and work so well that they are the essential element in my trading. The study of these pivots is, in my opinion, the main technical element you should work on.

But I don't put them at or near round numbers. I put them where the price (and the chart) says they should go. My pivots are always at totally random numbers but that is where the market has dictated they must go.

Don't worry about where everyone else has their pivots.

You have one teacher and that is the market.

The market will let you know if your pivots are in the right place.

The market should react to every line you have on your chart. At the very minimum it should stall but in most cases react significantly.

If it doesn't then either the market momentum is incredibly strong or you have done something wrong. In most cases it is the latter.

The biggest tip I can give you is use your eyes and go from RIGHT to LEFT on the chart. This is very important. The eye naturally reads LEFT to RIGHT. You need to reverse this.

Also look at every major swing high and low and follow it back with your eyes.

They are the focal point of the market.

Td,

Thanks as always for your excellent and helpful response. Just two further questions:
How wide can a ppz be? ; and, do you consider that a ppz has to have a minimum number of bars before it is valid? eg, 6 or 10?

Thanks for your help,

berti

 

[trader_dante]

Td,

Thanks as always for your excellent and helpful response. Just two further questions:
How wide can a ppz be? ; and, do you consider that a ppz has to have a minimum number of bars before it is valid? eg, 6 or 10?

Thanks for your help,

berti

Difficult to answer. How long is a piece of string? Sometimes it's an EXACT price. Sometimes it is a wide area. You have to work this out by defining the highs and lows of the swings.

I don't pay any atention to the number of bars that make it up. As long as lows are in the region of highs, whether it is 1 or 100, then I will note it down. Obviously, the more you get, the stronger the pivot. But on daily charts, I will still draw levels that show only one touch both sides.

 

[bfd]

Hi TD,

Just wanted to ask you about ppz as recommended by J16 thread. I seem to have a bit of difficulty drawing these zones on my charts because when I see other folks's charts they have a ppz in a different place. Do you still use them, and, if so, do you place them on or near round numbers?

berti

Sorry, whats a ppz?... Price pivot zone?

Thanks.

 

[trader_dante]

Sorry, whats a ppz?... Price pivot zone?

Thanks.

Indeed. But not calculated pivots.

 

[bbmac]

A London/European morning for the small time frame traders so far in Gbpusd...the screenshot shows the extent of the current 1hr range consolidation (yellow lines) and the green lines show the current intraday consolidation/congestion extremes.

Obvious previous support in the a and b region and the 1hr pinbar spike/swing (prev swing hi=prev res=pot res) providing the resistance.

Nice +100pip bounce off that congestion channel extreme shown in screenshot above.. (Tuesday's low...now today's current low.)

 

[trader_dante]

Trade setups for today (most entered last night)

Long March Wheat (not triggered yet)
Long Dow (triggered + 73 ticks)
Long GBP/JPY (triggered + 350 pips)
Long NZD/JPY(triggered +110 pips)

 

[trader_dante]

Anyone that is following this strategy or style of trading, want to update on their performance?

 

[dilesh23]

gbp/jpy 600 tiks + (but dwindling down at the moment

took gbp/euro trade off two days ago for 200+ tiks (looking to get back in off pin on 4hr)

was tempted to trade the dow daily pin but missed the boat

 

[therooster]

Anyone that is following this strategy or style of trading, want to update on their performance?

6-8 mths in I have got my account back into profit, trading dailies and weeklies only. this is a major milestone for me.

I still keep finding myself in trades others don't take, and skipping trades that the majority do though and am logging my thoughts to see where i can improve my decision making.

My focus now is on consistency and increasing my win-loss ratio. I estimate I am at 60% for the last 2 mths. I would normally consider this good, but the experienced price action traders seem to have far fewer losers than I do (unless they only ever post about the winners)

The important thing is that my equity curve is now starting to slope upwards for the first time. I hope it will continue!

 

[trader_dante]

gbp/jpy 600 tiks + (but dwindling down at the moment

took gbp/euro trade off two days ago for 200+ tiks (looking to get back in off pin on 4hr)

was tempted to trade the dow daily pin but missed the boat

Don't forget to mention the losers too!!!

 

[KillPhil08]

Hey, nice calls on long cable guys . I'm looking for shorts on the cable daily i think. Perhaps 1.5150?

 

[trader_dante]

6-8 mths in I have got my account back into profit, trading dailies and weeklies only. this is a major milestone for me.

I still keep finding myself in trades others don't take, and skipping trades that the majority do though and am logging my thoughts to see where i can improve my decision making.

My focus now is on consistency and increasing my win-loss ratio. I estimate I am at 60% for the last 2 mths. I would normally consider this good, but the experienced price action traders seem to have far fewer losers than I do (unless they only ever post about the winners)

The important thing is that my equity curve is now starting to slope upwards for the first time. I hope it will continue!

Hello mate, really pleased to hear that your account is on the up and back in profit. Slowly and surely does it.

60% win / loss ratio is not bad as long as your average win is higher than your average loss although I find that by being patient and waiting for only those trades that scream at you to enter the market, you can make this a whole lot better.

My stats so far for 2009 are:

Number of Trades: 19

Wins: 12
Losses: 1
Breakevens: 6

Win/Loss Ratio on Net Trades: 92.31%

Return on Account balance as of 31st Dec 2008: 56.43%

But it's still early days yet and not enough time to give anything statistically significant.

 

[therooster]

Hello mate, really pleased to hear that your account is on the up and back in profit. Slowly and surely does it.

60% win / loss ratio is not bad as long as your average win is higher than your average loss although I find that by being patient and waiting for only those trades that scream at you to enter the market, you can make this a whole lot better.

My stats so far for 2009 are:

Number of Trades: 19

Wins: 12
Losses: 1
Breakevens: 6

Win/Loss Ratio on Net Trades: 92.31%

Return on Account balance as of 31st Dec 2008: 56.43%

But it's still early days yet and not enough time to give anything statistically significant.

thanks TD, you have had a good start to the year!

Case in point this morning - alot of J16'ers took the NZDJPY pin.

I didnt like the look of this as the nose didnt protrude too far from the previous bar and it was a small bar in relation to those around it. Instead I preferred the EURNZD pin which had formed at a double top with a longer nose and some divergence.

Last time I checked, NZDJPY was in profit and my EURNZD trade was under water. This is not the first time that I have accidentally found myself being contrarian and regretting it. I still have plenty of learning to do I think.

thanks for this thread though, it is a great source of info.

 

[Joey25]

It may sound odd, but I'm feeling the waves that the market moves in

When it comes to a specific trade strategy, I'm playing inside bars like this:

(i) 50% of position size entered as a limit order based on some retracement of the inside bar. (2/3, 61.8%, trendlines in a smaller timeframe etc.)

(ii) 100% entered as a breakout beyond the inside bar

(i) and (ii) linked as OCO (one-cancels-other) orders.

If the retracement fills first, add a new breakout order for the remaining 50%.

Stops are either below the inside bar or the swing pivot, again depending which fills first.

The idea is that the more speculative entry starts with a smaller position size, so if it instantly goes wrong your exposure is less. You're also pyramiding if momentum gathers.

 

[trader_dante]

It may sound odd, but I'm feeling the waves that the market moves in

When it comes to a specific trade strategy, I'm playing inside bars like this:

(i) 50% of position size entered as a limit order based on some retracement of the inside bar. (2/3, 61.8%, trendlines in a smaller timeframe etc.)

(ii) 100% entered as a breakout beyond the inside bar

(i) and (ii) linked as OCO (one-cancels-other) orders.

If the retracement fills first, add a new breakout order for the remaining 50%.

Stops are either below the inside bar or the swing pivot, again depending which fills first.

The idea is that the more speculative entry starts with a smaller position size, so if it instantly goes wrong your exposure is less. You're also pyramiding if momentum gathers.

The danger being that you still have a position even if the "setup" doesn't trigger and there is no valid reason for an entry.

You can try increasing your odds by taking IBs in the DIRECTION of the daily candle.

 

[Joey25]

The danger being that you still have a position even if the "setup" doesn't trigger and there is no valid reason for an entry.

You can try increasing your odds by taking IBs in the DIRECTION of the daily candle.

Fair enough, but my point is that you get incredible risk/reward ratios by not waiting for confirmation. You don't have to win them all.

 

[trader_dante]

thanks TD, you have had a good start to the year!

Case in point this morning - alot of J16'ers took the NZDJPY pin.

I didnt like the look of this as the nose didnt protrude too far from the previous bar and it was a small bar in relation to those around it. Instead I preferred the EURNZD pin which had formed at a double top with a longer nose and some divergence.

Last time I checked, NZDJPY was in profit and my EURNZD trade was under water. This is not the first time that I have accidentally found myself being contrarian and regretting it. I still have plenty of learning to do I think.

thanks for this thread though, it is a great source of info.

therooster, the folk at J16 are good and know their stuff, especially mbq11 and seeking, james16, raczekfx and a few others I forget their names.

I've posted two charts up of the setups you mentioned above.

First is the NZD/JPY and then the EUR/NZD.

Both are pins off of s/r levels. So, both are candidates to trade.

But take a close look at NZD/JPY. What has happened to all the market participants that sold the break of that major low? They are now trapped underwater.

And what usually happens when people get trapped underwater? Do they calmly think "I'll be alright here" or do they panic? And if they panic what do they do in the market?

Also consider this. If the market is not strong enough to get through that bottom and actually closes up on the session, what psychological message does this send to the market? To me it suggests, at least temporarily that the market is not as weak as everyone thinks it is and that it may reverse.

Now compare this to your EUR/NZD. All you have here is a big resistance level which the price has temporarily rejected.

Now finally, compare the distance before the first problem areas (in orange).

On the NZD/JPY you have a little distance (although you have the 50 round number just above which I haven't drawn in but it still important).

On the EUR/NZD you are selling right into a level.

A keen speculator must be aware of every problem. Every angle.

But don't worry too much about the indicator divergence and the exact look of the pin. Concentrate on the pivot levels, where they are and what the market players are going to be thinking and how they are going to be acting.

 

[therooster]

therooster, the folk at J16 are good and know their stuff, especially mbq11 and seeking, james16, raczekfx and a few others I forget their names.

I've posted two charts up of the setups you mentioned above.

First is the NZD/JPY and then the EUR/NZD.

Both are pins off of s/r levels. So, both are candidates to trade.

But take a close look at NZD/JPY. What has happened to all the market participants that sold the break of that major low? They are now trapped underwater.

And what usually happens when people get trapped underwater? Do they calmly think "I'll be alright here" or do they panic? And if they panic what do they do in the market?

Also consider this. If the market is not strong enough to get through that bottom and actually closes up on the session, what psychological message does this send to the market? To me it suggests, at least temporarily that the market is not as weak as everyone thinks it is and that it may reverse.

Now compare this to your EUR/NZD. All you have here is a big resistance level which the price has temporarily rejected.

Now finally, compare the distance before the first problem areas (in orange).

On the NZD/JPY you have a little distance (although you have the 50 round number just above which I haven't drawn in but it still important).

On the EUR/NZD you are selling right into a level.

A keen speculator must be aware of every problem. Every angle.

But don't worry too much about the indicator divergence and the exact look of the pin. Concentrate on the pivot levels, where they are and what the market players are going to be thinking and how they are going to be acting.

Thanks TD, this is very useful for me to think about. My consolation right now is that I am profitable and I still have a lot to learn.

regards




Roy

 

[rollsafe]

NZD USD 1hr Possible Double Bottom

15 tick stop is all you need.

 

[Joey25]

Anyone that is following this strategy or style of trading, want to update on their performance?

TD,

Here's a typical daytrade that I take in S&P500 futures since I've been following your work.

Jan16th
(Daily S&P500 Future spreadbet)
Sold @ 848.60
Bought @ 827.40
P/L = +21.20 (212 pips)

I first starting trialling the general principles in the Beat the Broker competition, and I can honestly say I haven't looked back since. Cheers mate.

I rely on trendlines a lot and enter with limit orders most of the time, with more of a countertrend mentality at first, but the general principles of confluence and high probability setups are still there.

What I've noticed with people who contribute to this thread is that they dare to take
100s of pips rather than the odd 10 or so here and there. That's the key for me - proficiency in the exits

Anyway, thanks and continued good fortune to the contibutors to this thread

Joey