[PORTFOLIO] Marvin passive investment (real money 5-10k leveraged x3)

[Marvin07]

hello, hello,

First post here, tho used to be somewhat active in the older forum (diff. user)

Context

1. I invest in dwx a small fraction of my investments. The rest is pretty much all in the stocks markets (index funds). I appreciate dwx as an opportunity to invest with high risk/reward quite uncorrelated from the global markets.
2. I manage the investments of two 'net worth's. My own (dozens of k eur with higher risk tolerance as a young engineer), and my mom's (several dozens to few hundreds of k's, she is entering retirement)

My career in dwx as passive investor

• 2020-2021 (10k real eur - leverage 1): A portfolio with 10 guys, lack of alpha (I think?). poor results. The portolio seem to lean towards breaking even but covid volatility gave me -10% that month so that was pretty much my outcome for 1year+
• 2021-2023 (4k real eur - leverage 3): Reduce money from 10k to 6k and increase risk by a lot, and invest those 6k elsewhere. 4 guys split equally (THA, SYO, UYZ, ZVQ). This endedup at +30%ish in 2ish years. I got lucky with THA's insane 2022.
• Now. When I changed strategy at the end of 2021 I was lazy and just picked the top4 of my previous 10 guys portfolio, I didnt even look at the pool of possibly 'new' interesting Darwins. SO, I am doing it now plus refine a bit the strategy:

If I could get average annual ROIS of 5-15% during the next 5-20y, I'd be happy w/ dwx.

The strategy

1. Passive inv. (rebalance/touch on yearly+ basis)
2. Follow the money
3. Few top guys
4. High d-scores
5. Long native track records (min. 3)

I am lazy to share full details of my lil calculations now in this post (tho fundamentally, I dn't mind). This is the result:

THA	45%
JTL	15%
SYO	8%
BAX	11%
ERQ	4%
WGP	5%
YOX	6%
WNJ	4%
UYZ	2%
	100%

The calculations consider 3 facors. Money invested, native track record and d-score. Initially is 70% follow the money and 30% a linear distribution based on nr of years of native track record, then I add/subtract a modifier based on deviation from d-score average of these 9 guys.

Yes, half the money goes to THA. Which has done things barely no other Darwin has made and has attracted a lot of money, so makes sense to me to invest heavily in it. "Diversification is protection against ignorance," Buffett.. kinda logic. And I dnt mean to claim I am no ignorant. I am just trying to keep thins simple and am happy have a lot of risk in this particular investment (dwx)


Reasoning of the strategy

• Following the money (in the millions) just makes sense to me. These 9 guys accumulate about 66M $ in participations of 5-20k per invesor per darwin. THA averages 21k invested per invesor. That's no average Joe investing 150usd in BTC or eToro, to me this sounds more like family office type of thing. I imagine only traditionally balanced net worths of about dozens of milions would be investing 20k in a single Darwin. And these pple tend to like money and know how to use it.. Simply 66Musd is too much money (considering the 'low' number of investors) for it to endup in ourageiously wrong places.
• In other words, after 3 years investing here, would the top Darwins of dwx only have manage to attract a total 0.5Mysd (instead of the 66), I'd simply delete my account. I'd wanna lose my time discovering hidden gems no one else has found.
• On top of this I just add 2 basic well-known criterias. D-score (Darwinex kinda has my trust) and long native track records to fight against lucky guys.

I'll post screenshoots of the real portfoliod and more details soon

ps. Sorry for the many typos, recently got injured and I am typing with one hand

 

[Marvin07]

As promised. A couple of images.

Please share your thoughts, feedback and what not . Cheers <3. May we all make a bit of money here.

• That's my mom's 5.3k. My own account has 3k on the exact same strategy. Will be posting updates on how the money moves over time.

• And here my lil excel table, hoping is somewhat interesting/useful

 

[T_D_P]

Hello Marvin,

I'm absolutely baffled by your selection of choice - in a good sense, of course.

This is insofar easier than the exemplary criteria @IlIlIlIlI has on the demo portfolios - in a good sense too.

A question: Did you happen to segregate your mom's retirement portfolio to lower-risk index(es) while you focus on finding the undervalued ones?

Cheers,
T_D_P

 

[Marvin07]

Thanks for your comment !

No, we both invest in Amundi's passive index replicating the MSCI world index. I kinda believe (out of ignorance) that global/american passive indexes with low comissions are the funds with most alpha (by a lot.. provided the time invested is very large), so risk appettite should be managed thru exposure IMO but not trying to look for alternatives cause there aren0t. (side tracking froms darwins..Would u agree?)

 

[T_D_P]

Hello Marvin,

Thanks for sharing your insights.

If both were to invest in Amundi (or any other index-related fund structures), the dollar-cost averaging (DCA) method is a must to capitalize the differences between fluctuating asset prices - no one can time the market accurately.

However, understood your perspective, imo, the appropriateness to index investing is over-hyped especially on Youtube. Another question arises: How are you able to balance your portfolio across other asset classes instead of concentrating on only the equities & bonds markets?

Cheers,
T_D_P