Political betting (in the UK)

[Pat494]

Why do you care about the US election? I ask because you seem like you have a vested interest in it.

What actuality?

The rest of the World does indeed have vested interests in the USA elections. The next President decides almost unilaterally who is going to die in places like The Middle East particularly. How many did Bush cause to lose their lives ? Must be well into 6 figures. Obama has tried to wind down the conflicts by using drones but even so his death score must be well into 5 figures. I think Chump will up the figures considerably. Why ? Because of his rhetoric.
Hillary may be gentler but America is losing patience and becoming a death dealing machine. No longer having a monopoly of the moral high ground. The words of Harry Lyme ring clear and are getting truer.

 

[hhiusa]

The rest of the World does indeed have vested interests in the USA elections. The next President decides almost unilaterally who is going to die in places like The Middle East particularly. How many did Bush cause to lose their lives ? Must be well into 6 figures. Obama has tried to wind down the conflicts by using drones but even so his death score must be well into 5 figures. I think Chump will up the figures considerably. Why ? Because of his rhetoric.
Hillary may be gentler but America is losing patience and becoming a death dealing machine. No longer having a monopoly of the moral high ground. The words of Harry Lyme ring clear and are getting truer.

Considering the number of European troops allocated to the coalition, how many deaths were European? What percentage?

Maybe you should be complaining about weak British leaders who rolled over instead of complaining about domineering American leaders. Your PMs would do well to take a lesson in American assertiveness.

 

[timsk]

. . . And indeed, the Brexit voters may turn out to be right. But that won't be down to their rational analysis of actuality. So my point is not to do with whether Brexit is good or bad, its the observation that voters are liable to irrational decision-making.

Hi Tom,
On what basis do you make this conclusion? I voted leave and I did so in a very calm and rational way, having weighed up all the arguments. In fact, when I started to consider which way to vote seriously, my natural inclination at the start was to vote remain, so my ultimate decision to vote leave was a direct consequence of rational decision making. I'm not saying this applies to all those who voted as I did, but I'd wager that the the rational / irrational decision making split is going to be pretty much equal in both camps.
Tim.

 

[tomorton]

Hi Tom,
On what basis do you make this conclusion? I voted leave and I did so in a very calm and rational way, having weighed up all the arguments. In fact, when I started to consider which way to vote seriously, my natural inclination at the start was to vote remain, so my ultimate decision to vote leave was a direct consequence of rational decision making. I'm not saying this applies to all those who voted as I did, but I'd wager that the the rational / irrational decision making split is going to be pretty much equal in both camps.
Tim.

Well Tim, I guess we'll never know for sure. All due respect to the UK's voters - I would highly rate their senses of fairness and natural justice, their respect for law and their dedication to democratic process. But I wouldn't trust them to understand how to run a country - which is what a referendum seeks.

 

[timsk]

Well Tim, I guess we'll never know for sure. All due respect to the UK's voters - I would highly rate their senses of fairness and natural justice, their respect for law and their dedication to democratic process. But I wouldn't trust them to understand how to run a country - which is what a referendum seeks.

I agree with you Tom, but surely this applies just as much to those who voted remain as it does to those who voted leave!
Tim.

 

[dermotobrien]

Surely trading a financial instrument will give you greater odds than any bookmaker could? For example shorting the GBP when the brexit vote was taking place. (or just as the markets crashed upon the release of Sunderlands result).

 

[tomorton]

I agree with you Tom, but surely this applies just as much to those who voted remain as it does to those who voted leave!
Tim.

Absolutely - its not like rational analysis can identify the winning camp. The rationally projected winners can be actual winners for irrational reasons - when the electorate get a direct say.

 

[tomorton]

Surely trading a financial instrument will give you greater odds than any bookmaker could? For example shorting the GBP when the brexit vote was taking place. (or just as the markets crashed upon the release of Sunderlands result).

Well, yes and no. Some events can be bet upon but are not going to be market movers. e.g. who is the leader of an opposition party. I guess a bet on Brexit would have been a good hedge on a long GBP position at the time.

 

[tomorton]

Just a word of caution if anyone's considering backing Corbyn as next Labour Leader. There's a legal challenge due to be heard this week which could potentially exclude him from the ballot without 51 MPs' support: its not likely he could find that many.

Obviously, odds may be better if you put cash on him now rather than wait for the confirmation he is eligible to stand. Decisions on risk tolerance are personal.......

 

[Pat494]

Just a word of caution if anyone's considering backing Corbyn as next Labour Leader. There's a legal challenge due to be heard this week which could potentially exclude him from the ballot without 51 MPs' support: its not likely he could find that many.

Obviously, odds may be better if you put cash on him now rather than wait for the confirmation he is eligible to stand. Decisions on risk tolerance are personal.......

I am not familiar with political betting. So perhaps you could quote some of the current odds being offered.

 

[tomorton]

I am not familiar with political betting. So perhaps you could quote some of the current odds being offered.

Gladly - something I was meaning to log, as the odds change continually as an event approaches.

Next Labour Leader
(ballot closes 1200, 21/09)

19/07 -
Corbyn 1.33 (1/3)
Smith 3.25 (9/4)
Angela Eagle 17.0 (16/1)


16/07 -
Corbyn 1.61 (8/13)
Smith 2.37 (11/8)
Eagle 13.00 (12/1)

NB: 1.33 (or 1/3 or 1 to 3) means if you bet £100 and are correct, your return will be £133

 

[tomorton]

Next Labour Leader
(ballot closes 1200, 21/09)

19/07, 2058hrs (after Eagle's withdrawal) -
Corbyn 1.36 (4/11)
Smith 3.00 (2/1)

19/07, 1556hrs -
Corbyn 1.33 (1/3)
Smith 3.25 (9/4)
Angela Eagle 17.0 (16/1)


16/07 -
Corbyn 1.61 (8/13)
Smith 2.37 (11/8)
Eagle 13.00 (12/1)

 

[Pat494]

Looks like a Corbyn victory then. The Tories couldn't be more pleased with that result.

 

[tomorton]

Indeed.

I still doubt there will be a ballot. I will not be surprised if Smith pulls out. If that happens and there is no ballot, I'm thinking bets on Corbyn will be voided.

There has to be a distinct possibility of two Labour parties forming from this fiasco. Its potentially going to be a question of who breaks away and forms a new party and what will they call it?

 

[tomorton]

Next US President -
Clinton 1.44
Trump 2.75
Biden 41.00
Ryan 41.00
Johnson 101.00
Romney 151.00

 

[timsk]

Next US President -
Johnson 101.00

Blimey, didn't know Boris was running for President! Just goes to show what I know about politics and probably explains why I voted leave in the referendum.

 

[tomorton]

Next Labour Leader
(ballot closes 1200, 21/09)

21/07 (1620, after Corbyn campaign launch)
Corbyn 1.14
Smith 5.00

19/07, 2058hrs (after Eagle's withdrawal) -
Corbyn 1.36 (4/11)
Smith 3.00 (2/1)

 

[tomorton]

Next Labour Leader
(ballot closes 1200, 21/09)

28/07 (2109, after Court rejects challenge to Corbyn's automatic admission as candidate)
Corbyn 1.17
Smith 4.50

21/07 (1620, after Corbyn campaign launch)
Corbyn 1.14
Smith 5.00

 

[tomorton]

Next US President

30/07 (after Clinton formally accepts nomination as candidate)
Clinton 1.44 (no change)
Trump 2.75 (no change)
Johnson 101 (no change)
Biden 101 (no change)

20/07
Clinton 1.44
Trump 2.75
Johnson 101
Biden 101

 

[tomorton]

Update on the odds on the more interesting contests out there -

Next Labour Leader -
This is a non-starter now, with Jeremy Corbyn at 1.06, Owen Smith at 9.00, so it looks like I won't even get the chance to play this one. The shambolic argument about who can/can't elect the leader is over and it looks like the game is over, at least for Owen Smith. Polls also show Jeremy Corbyn as the very probable winner, with 55% support in London and 63% in the Labour Northern heartlands (whatever that means), making 62% for Corbyn overall. Surely, Owen Smith was a third rank contender from the start, not widely known, struggling to differentiate his philosophy from the current leader's - when he offered another Brexit referendum that must surely have killed his own political career?

Next US President -
My 1.33 bet on Hillary Clinton looks secure, she is now offered at 1.30, with Donald Trump at 3.50, Paul Ryan at 34.00, Gary Johnson and Joe Biden at 81.00.

Others with upcoming results -
Next UKIP leader -
There is a bet offered on this but although I watch the News and Andrew Marr etc. I have no idea who these people are -
Diane James 1.20: Lisa Duffy 5.50: Bill Etheridge 17.00: Elizabeth Jones 34.00: Phillip Broughton 34.00.
Diane James is the clear favourite but at 1.20 its right on the limit for me. I'll keep an eye on it.

Next BoE rate rise -
2016 11.00
January - June 2017 5.00
July - December 2017 3.50
2018 Or Later 1.80
2018? Really?

Happy Sunday to all.