Poking the ER2

[badtrader]

I should correct myself, when I said you are getting in to a trade similar to me, Just had a look it was on 2 trades, based on you possible 6 trades.

I mostly trade the s&p,I do trade the Russell, but what I find with this market, when you place a stop, it seem to get you, more than the YM or S&P because it does over react, and gets a bit wild.

Remember you can make money out of the markets on a toss of a coin. As long as you use stops. Give it a go, lets say a 15 points stop and a 30 point target, but move stop to even after a move of 10 points, You be surprised.

Or give this a go. only trade on the 1st of every month, but with this one dont use stop on the first day, but place one the next day at you entry price,.and hold for 4 days. back test it you be surprised.

 

[jessop]

FXM,

Where I mark down a signal as "Failed to take" its really that simple.......

The reasons why I might not take a signal are numerous (distracted elsewhere, bias the other way, didn't react in time etc), but none are acceptable. One of the reasons for a public journal was to highlight the current focus/emotional flaws that inhibit me taking all signals, as my trading plan says I should.

Thanks for the feedback.

 

[jessop]

Hi Commanderco,

I have been trading 1 contract live since the beginning of May. I have had a few days Sim Trading when I moved from 2min charts to 5 min charts and needed to get the feel of the 5min candles printing & the signals. But I have real cash on the line every day .....

Regarding "Point 5 in post # 1 is invalid since you have contributed nothing to the group".
I think that is a bit harsh because all I said was that I wanted to put a little bit back - not sell a system or debate my entry methods. The key point of this journal is the mental struggle behind trading not really my entry and exit rules. I think there are a few people out there that get something out of this journal. I have also had some great feedback from posters on a US website I use, regarding the psychology of trading.

Anyway thanks for the feedback.

 

[fxmarkets]

hello mate, right, if you are out to lunch, whats going on there ? is that a violation of trading plan, ie do not eat and be available to/ or take all signalls .? I mean small point but if lunch is factored in, I wouldn't classify it as a failed trade etc... , ok and as for highlighting areas to work on as you are doing, what happens or what do you have to do next? ie, what about next lunchtime? I plan to have lunch or if i feel hungry i'll eat, or i'll feel hungry yet not eat then and be available to take signals ?

Also you acknowledge fear , closing out early etc. what steps can you take to stretch to meet your objectives ? is it amount of money fear? its in profit, yet dont want to give up whilst its there? better that than a loss, against bigger (possible yet this is the market, jerky prices gonna get me) return ,although your method may suggest substantially more by waiting for exit to be met?

whats the second half of your trading plan (jessop) say to do once you recognise and acknowledge areas for improvement , there's the growth opportunity shouting hello......... we dont need to be doing this over and over do we?
jessop What solutions/areas of thinking is jessop needing to put into action once realisation/acknowledgement of a situation that needs to be changed, is gained?

Oh comment and if "Failed to take" its really that simple" ,then easy change it to "I Will Not Fail to Take" just as simple as the former isn't it ?

 

[jessop]

Hi again FXM,

Interesting stuff ...... some very good points in your post.

I use to put down in the journal an excuse for each signal I didn't take. A poster replied to my journal on a US site that I shouldn't use excuses. I agreed that it was not helping my objective to take every signalled trade. I haven't yet managed to get past about 50%. So you are right I need to turn this into a positive/affirmative "I will take all signals I perceive without reservation or hesitation...." not the passive failed to take.

In terms of not letting all winners run to my exit signals - this for me is controlling fear pure and simple and its getting better with time. I find it a lot easier on the 5minute charts to monitor the price action and not get freaked out by a minor PB.

I certainly have areas I want to improve, but at the moment I have two basic areas that need constant work on:
- trade all signals perceived
- close all trades on an exit signal

Thanks again for the feedback

 

[badtrader]

jessop

If you are trading off a 1 min charts on the Russel2000.this will Kill you over time.Do exactly what you doing,but up it to a 5 or 10 min chart.I am sure this will be better for you.to my thinking,I dont think you are psychology up for scalps.

joe

The above post said to trade 5 min charts over 1 min charts.and you have taken his advice. You said you wish not to disclose you trading method. But as you are new to trading you would get more out of it, if you did disclose.…How you can change form 1 to 5 min charts, from just one post from joeMcnicholl .Tell me you got a lot to learn. Dont get me mistaken, I dont want you method I have got a trading plan, and many methods on different time frames, But the feeling I am getting, is you think you got something that everyone wants.

By disclosing just part of you method, you could improve it by 100%, there are traders on here who got a lot of years experience. I am still getting me head around why you have not look at 5min charts before. if it was not for a trader advising you to try it. Look how more you could improve you method, if you showed a little more, to what you are doing, Although I got a good idea what you are doing. and I could improve it for you, but I am holding back,because we only getting past entry signals how you done in you trading day. and we dont know if you are on an ego trip

 

[jessop]

Ok BT you've ground me down with your persistence....you can PM me and I'll send you my full trading method.

You can then tell me where I'm going wrong......

But if you can't improve it can I continue my ego trip in peace please.

Cheers

 

[badtrader]

,

 

[fxmarkets]

Just a further note mate, with the fear factor, trade a smaller size, and put your current method on it as usual you know from your method already you get decent runs if you wait for exit signal, keep your stop tight as you plan, but exit according to plan, you cant control where the market is going at anytime, try maybe to recognise that , but you can control your risk, and plan your exit. practice that perfectly setup entry stop exit, but according to your plan, try it on a tenth of your current size is that possible? for x number of trades 20 maybe to start and review according to did i do it perfectly according to plan, forget the points, thats secondary. they will be what they will be, then maybe looked at refining method once you know that you can execute as you plan without straying. even if the first trades stop get hit, hit hit, Just say ok. stopped out........ followed the plan, 10/10. observing for next opportunity...

If you reduce the size it allows you to focus on discipline of trading correctly?
what do you think ?

 

[jessop]

FXM,

That makes perfect sense to me.

I've been trying to complete the Mark Douglas ' Trading in the Zone' 20 trade exercise for 4 months now.

He suggested three futures contracts to allow for scaling out. But as you know from the journal I am only trading one contract, because I want to get very consistent before I move up.

Very useful - thanks

 

[fxmarkets]

I see keep it minimal perfect practice makes perfect, as for "I want to get very consistent before I move up" well you have that already "wanting" ie feeling of lack of consistency.

seykota "everybody gets what they want "?

err fxmarkets "everbody has what they want."
(that feeling of lack. or lacking associated with whatever it is already)

I will . (as in it will be..., not intend to do...).
I have
I am

I will consistency
I have consistency
I am Consistent.

Just my view on things mate.......

 

[jessop]

Well my concentration was better today and I sat through the whole session without letting myself get distracted.

However, there was a definitive negative tinge to my mood today that caused me to hesitate more than is acceptable.

I didn’t have a signal for the 5pt opening move, but that didn’t really frustrate me which is good.

S0.5(S) - well it’s the signal on the top of my research list (the one from Friday).
Entry was from the start of the 15:05 candle and it ran for 3pts. At least my discipline held and I didn’t enter the trade. I need to complete some outstanding backtesting on this one - but I must get this added to my trading plan very soon.

Non-Signal – my current Achilles heel is entering a trade mid print – here was another example, which also had a touch of boredom trade about it too. Entered at 15:36 (673.4) and got stopped out at 672.3.

S1 (L) – failed to take trade– entry should have been at the start of the 16:05 candle – waited for the end of the 16:00 candle and then did nothing

S2 (L) – failed to take trade – entry should have been at the start of the 18:00 candle

S3 (S) – entry 673.2 (19:03) a little late – it should have been from the start of the 19:00 candle. I exited at 672.5 after I looked at the QM chart and saw the price falling back. There was another 0.8pts to come before my actual exit signal – disappointing.

S4 (S) – failed to take trade – entry should have been at the start of the 20:15 candle – waited for the end of the 20:00 candle and then did nothing

S5 (S) – entry 672.9 (20:45) I exited at 672.5 after a certain indicator failed to break down as expected, and then gave me an exit signal.

Entries – two good ones – one non-signal
Exits – one ok one – one non-signal exit - one stop out
Points today +0.0pts (not including comms)

Onwards and upwards……….

 

[jessop]

Got back from work at 7pm (2pm ET) and the impressive 10 pt sell-off was just getting going.

I initially wanted to jump into a long trade around 7:15, but the signal just wasn’t there, in fact it all said weakness. With no short signal to play I was just a spectator. At least my patience held because I was desperate to get in with only 2 hours to go.

S1 (S) – at work
S2 (L) – at work
S3 (L) – continuation long signal - at work
S4 (S) – on way home from work

Points today nil pts (not including comms)

Onwards and upwards……….

 

[jessop]

Wow after a session like this I could turn into a bear for life. Got back from work early today and hit two out of three signals for home runs. Wasn’t sure how long I could hold the S3 long for because it looked such a weak move, but pretty pleased with the results. This is the kind of day I love. But I need to ensure I don’t get too cocky….

S1 (L) – at work

S2 (S) – continuation short signal - at work

S3 (L) – got home just before 5pm and saw the S3 signal brewing – entry at start of 17:15 candle 652.6 – I struggled to hold it given the general weakness and got an exit signal to close at 656.3 – although it did go another 1.5 pts I was happy with the result.

S4 (S) – failed to take – hesitation and then a fast move started in the 18:30 bar so I had to leave it.

S5 (S) – continuation short signal – I was worried I was going to miss the slide until S5 appeared and I got in short at 19:30 (655.40) and found it relatively easy to hold without any panicky exits. Got an exit signal to close at 648.7. What a result…my best trade live or Sim on ER2.

Signal
S1- n/a
S2- n/a
S3- 2/2
S4- 0/2
S5- 2/2
Rules Hit Rate = 4/6 = 66%
Points today +10.4pts (not including comms) ….yes my first $1k day

Onwards and upwards……….

 

[jessop]

Another nice bear session – but unfortunately I only had time for one trade….. but still a very nice one. Another great day for the signals and the trend was fairly clear when I jumped into the trade just before 8pm. I again didn’t have a clear entry signal for the first hour and I’m considering using the 2 minute chart in the first 30 minutes (work in progress).

S1 (L) – at work
S2 (L) – at work
S3 (S) – at work
S4 (L) – at work
S5 (L) – at work
S6 (S) – at work

S7 (S) – at the screen from just after 7 and could see some weakness emerging so got in at 19:51 (642.9) but held onto it past the ideal exit signal point at the start of the 20:35 bar closing at 637.5. I seem to find shorts easier to hold because they seem to move more cleanly and decisively.

S1- n/a
S2- n/a
S3- n/a
S4- n/a
S5- n/a
S6- n/a
S7- 1/2 (1 for the entry, 0 for the exit because it was late)
Rules Hit Rate = 1/2 = 50%
Points today +5.4pts (not including comms) ….

Onwards and upwards……….

 

[jessop]

A very poor day for concentration in the form of researching 120 min swing signals and from the mother-in-law and her broken laptop. Got stopped a lot today which is not surprising given the nature of the day.

648 level on the ER2 is a significant level going back 4 months and was the real battle ground today.

S1 (S) – signal not taken – saw the weakness but used 3pm news as an excuse I think not to take it

S2 (S) – nice entry at 15:40 644.9 watched it go 2pts + then got stopped out at 643.9 (on my b/e +1.0 stop)

S3 (L) – signal not even seen – mother-in-law distractions – not very professional

S4 (S) – great entry at 647.6 – quite nervous that it was going to b/out through 648, but all the indicators looked weak – closed just after exit signal for 646.7

S5 (S) – signal half seen – but researching 120 min charts

S6 (S) – entry at 647.1 and price dropped 1pt – then bounced around back up to my b/e stop

S7 (L) – continuation long signal - good entry again 647.6 and it kept retesting 648 and when it broke through went 1pt and then came back to hit my b/e stop closing me out at 647.5

S1- 0/2
S2- 2/2
S3- 0/2
S4- 2/2
S5- 0/2
S6- 2/2
S7- 2/2
Rules Hit Rate = 8/14 = 57%
Points today +1.8pts (not including comms) ….

Onwards and upwards……….

 

[jessop]

A bad start that turned into a good day, despite poor rules following. Got very frustrated with the 7pt drop at the open. I knew it was very weak on my higher TF charts but couldn’t find a 5min entry. Then spent a lot of time researching the higher TF charts with the 5min charts. As a result I saw but missed S1, S2 & S3. The good news was that I could see the move up at 18:00 was weak and was looking for more downside before S4 got me in for a nice move down.

I’m happy that the higher TF charts will keep me in trend more often, show me overbought/oversold conditions better and give me a clearer context to the 5min reversal/continuation signals.

S1 (L) – signal not taken
S2 (S) – signal not taken
S3 (L) – signal not taken

S4 (S) – great entry at 644.8 – I had confidence to hold it longer because of higher TF charts (inc. continuation signal) – held through the PB and test of 642.2 and then 641 went quickly too. Very, very tempted to exit in the 19:50 bar, but all the indicators said more downside so I held tight. Then I closed for 641.1 without any real exit signal – a panic exit. Then it dropped 1.5 pts just to rub my nose in it. Exit signal was at 20:30.

S1- 0/2
S2- 0/2
S3- 0/2
S4- 1/2
Rules Hit Rate = 1/8 = 12.5% (not good )
Points today +3.7pts (not including comms) ….

Onwards and upwards……….

 

[badtrader]

Hello jessop,

Differentiating between the M and W structures gartley butterfly's, there not much between them. I feel you think you got something special, but the fact is you have not. The Ideal Butterfly Pattern again requires a specific alignment and specific rules of the Fibonacci ratios to validate the structure.you charts dont validate this

Similar to the Gartley But what I see on your charts there is no alignment of the ratios. general interpretation looking for some kind of A-B-C-D corrective move after a critical high or low was established. But there is a wide room for interpretation, and when it comes to real time trading and applying these methods to the markets, I am not trying to knock you , but I am trying to clarify the patterns origins and not underscore the exact specifications

That is my emphasis to you, charts you post on you thread.They are not the correct butterfly set ups I am sure on a small time frame over time, you will get found out

 

[jessop]

Hi BT,

Many thanks for that detailed analysis……very interesting.

Unfortunately none of my entry or exit signals relate to Gartley butterflys or M / W wave structures.

Did you really think I was going to fall for the “You show me yours and I’ll show you mine” ploy !!

As I have now said on numerous occasions this journal is not about method but the psychology of rule following & emotion control.

Why would I send my trading method to a chancer like yourself for your input. Unless you seriously think I want to trade by moon cycles.

I’m afraid you are now on my ignore list.

Best Regards

J

 

[commanderco]

S4 (S) – great entry at 644.8 – I had confidence to hold it longer because of higher TF charts (inc. continuation signal) – held through the PB and test of 642.2 and then 641 went quickly too. Very, very tempted to exit in the 19:50 bar, but all the indicators said more downside so I held tight. Then I closed for 641.1 without any real exit signal – a panic exit. Then it dropped 1.5 pts just to rub my nose in it. Exit signal was at 20:30.QUOTE]

You closed out of S4 too early in my opinion.
Once you are in the trade watch for your short term MACD to build. This is your guide to exits