Best Thread Phil Newton's Range Break Out strategy
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Todays video folks
have a good days trading
have a good days trading
Newtron Bomb
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Certianly if you are looking to develop a scalping ranging strategy that could be one scenario to explore
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Hi Folks,
Just thinking out loud here, so excuse the randomness of the comments.
UK and Euro zone Interest rates didn't spark any interest in movements (excuse the pun), price is being pushed up and down once again on the USD cross rates and not really giving me a direction for the day so far and now all eyes appear to be on ISM at 3pm UK hours today which as I recall last time sent the market short term nuts.
There still appears to be no stopping the USD advance particularly against the GBP (Thank you Darling
)
Overall the USD trend is still bullish but intraday USD is so far weakening with bearish intent... doesn't that sound posh... who cares all this information is on the charts folks and all I'm doing is stating whats already happened so its nothing fancy or complicated to see this.... Say what you see folks the first 2 of the 3 basic questions I sue will tell you this.
So whats going to happen?
Well I don't know and I don't care... but this is what I'm going to do. Ideally I'm looking for new highs or lows for the day wit profit potential based on an average days move for the currency pairs I'm looking at. There are also some Fib retracements setting up and I will be assessing price action to suggest direction post news... hey and guess what... remember Wednesdays Training session?... If it goes up making higher highs higher lows I'm going to buy... If it goes down making lower highs lower lows I'm going to sell.... and IF it doesn't make either new highs or new lows with profit potential then I'm going to step aside and live to trade another day.
That's the plan... let see how it works out.
Happy Trading
Phil
Just thinking out loud here, so excuse the randomness of the comments.
UK and Euro zone Interest rates didn't spark any interest in movements (excuse the pun), price is being pushed up and down once again on the USD cross rates and not really giving me a direction for the day so far and now all eyes appear to be on ISM at 3pm UK hours today which as I recall last time sent the market short term nuts.
There still appears to be no stopping the USD advance particularly against the GBP (Thank you Darling
)Overall the USD trend is still bullish but intraday USD is so far weakening with bearish intent... doesn't that sound posh... who cares all this information is on the charts folks and all I'm doing is stating whats already happened so its nothing fancy or complicated to see this.... Say what you see folks the first 2 of the 3 basic questions I sue will tell you this.
So whats going to happen?
Well I don't know and I don't care... but this is what I'm going to do. Ideally I'm looking for new highs or lows for the day wit profit potential based on an average days move for the currency pairs I'm looking at. There are also some Fib retracements setting up and I will be assessing price action to suggest direction post news... hey and guess what... remember Wednesdays Training session?... If it goes up making higher highs higher lows I'm going to buy... If it goes down making lower highs lower lows I'm going to sell.... and IF it doesn't make either new highs or new lows with profit potential then I'm going to step aside and live to trade another day.
That's the plan... let see how it works out.
Happy Trading
Phil
Hi Phil, I've just got back from a few days holiday and to reassure you I read your post daily & it's great - I've learnt so much and your help is very much appreciated.
Re Interest rates & your thoughts; as Hornblower says - it sums everything up well. Regards,
Re Interest rates & your thoughts; as Hornblower says - it sums everything up well. Regards,
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I was going to write about some thoughts today about learning from mistakes… and I had a really cool analogy which I might fit in at the end… but I spotted something that makes my blood boil on one of my rare visits to another websites forum which ties into something similar.
There is a current hot topic about trading a break out or a predefined 2 hour segment of the day (In short the start of the US trading session)… not just any breakout but a bracket… this is placing a buy order above and a sell order below the identified range… and set a XX pip trailing stop loss and hope for the best. Those are actually the rules!
Works great on an intraday reversal (on a daily bar chart you will see these as hammers shooting start outside bars) but what about all the other days of the trading year? In the last few weeks we have seen several of these types of days which is unusual in itself in my opinion.
Now what most new traders do when “something new” catches their interest is just look back over the last few days or few weeks on maybe one or two pairs and what they will see is that this strategy is the best thing since sliced bread. They will go all glossy eyed over the winning trades and the massive movements that they see and think… “This is easy money”
What a serious trader or prospective trader will do is take it one step further and look to see what the LONG TERM life of this potential new strategy is and not what this has done in the last few days.
Take a look at a daily chart yourself how many intraday reversals do you see these usually easiest to see as hammers shooting starts outside bars do they happen enough to make it a regular trading pattern on a day to day basis? I think not!
While all things go in cycles and my general view on technical analysis is that all things work some of the time will this strategy still make you daily pips in the long term? No.
Today as I’m writing this strategy will have worked an absolute charm and made quite a few pips, but how many people actually traded it today… not too many by looking at the forum in question.
What is going to happen tomorrow?
All these inexperienced traders will be trading this so called strategy as it has made money today. I foresee them being sorely disappointed. They might then also try to trade this for a few days, maybe a week or two all the while watching their account erode, guess what they ain’t going to use a demo account as this is such a “hot” and “sure thing”… “just look what it did yesterday for the proof”. This is like taking a tip off the “bloke down the pub” because a “friend of his” knew “someone” that was talking to an employee of xzy company about a sale he had made some good commissions on. So of course that company must be a good one to invest in!!!
So now that my rant about some of the rubbish that people “think” is good without out actually checking the facts is over, the cycle of new trader generally speaking is something like this… and Ive watched a lot of people doing it and caught myself doing it early in my own trading career.
Find an entry strategy/method back test it for a few days/weeks… looks good, “I’ll give this a go”
Watch it in real time for a day or two… “This is making, easy money. Why I’m I just watching it? Tomorrow I’ll live trade it”
Tomorrow comes, live trading starts… they are all excited, might even get lucky for a day or two, on a good trade, might have missed one… “I’ll get them tomorrow” and them your up a few dozen or more pips.. “Great day. Easy!”
Then the losing/mixed trading cycle of the strategy happens and continues for the next few days/weeks… “What I’m I doing wrong? This was so easy” and so the decision to stop trading happens (or the decision that that strategy didn’t actually work in the first place is made and so they stop trading it)
And so the newby trader stops live trading licking wounds and reassessing the strategy making sure the rules have been understood, watching the strategy unfold. At this point they might see a few more potential losses and think “what a good decision to stop” and then the next several days are spent watching the winning cycle of the strategy profit after profit is seen, confidence is built and “if I had stuck with it all those losses would have been returned to me, I’ll start trading again tomorrow”
So the new trader continues this cycle of watching a winning phase, trading a loosing… and maybe getting lucky in the overlap of cycles but on the whole watching equity erode out of the live account and “if I had just stayed with it from the start, I’d be making a lot of money and kissing the day job goodbye!”
Consistency in trading is a big key with the application of a strategy when you find one that suits your personality or from sticking one a strategy rather than jumping around from method to method.
Of course all the above assumes that the strategy in question is well rounded and not only includes “just and entry method” but also an exit strategy and trade/money management.
Ultimately have a well rounded and complete written trading plan that you have faith in, that is back tested AND forward tested before you commit your hard earned money on the markets.
Don’t fall into the trap of stopping and starting a strategy, realise that you don’t have all the key components or jump from one strategy to another with every new day.
Trading is one of the few if not the only business in the world that allows you to practice before committing real money to the markets. So you can make all those mistakes and learn your new profession on a demo account.
Don’t just jump on the first hot strategy that you see or are told about, test it, see if it works for you, and find the proof for yourself.
Have a well rounded tested trading plan; know what you’re going to do, when you’re doing it and why you’re doing it at ever stage of the trading day.
There is a current hot topic about trading a break out or a predefined 2 hour segment of the day (In short the start of the US trading session)… not just any breakout but a bracket… this is placing a buy order above and a sell order below the identified range… and set a XX pip trailing stop loss and hope for the best. Those are actually the rules!
Works great on an intraday reversal (on a daily bar chart you will see these as hammers shooting start outside bars) but what about all the other days of the trading year? In the last few weeks we have seen several of these types of days which is unusual in itself in my opinion.
Now what most new traders do when “something new” catches their interest is just look back over the last few days or few weeks on maybe one or two pairs and what they will see is that this strategy is the best thing since sliced bread. They will go all glossy eyed over the winning trades and the massive movements that they see and think… “This is easy money”
What a serious trader or prospective trader will do is take it one step further and look to see what the LONG TERM life of this potential new strategy is and not what this has done in the last few days.
Take a look at a daily chart yourself how many intraday reversals do you see these usually easiest to see as hammers shooting starts outside bars do they happen enough to make it a regular trading pattern on a day to day basis? I think not!
While all things go in cycles and my general view on technical analysis is that all things work some of the time will this strategy still make you daily pips in the long term? No.
Today as I’m writing this strategy will have worked an absolute charm and made quite a few pips, but how many people actually traded it today… not too many by looking at the forum in question.
What is going to happen tomorrow?
All these inexperienced traders will be trading this so called strategy as it has made money today. I foresee them being sorely disappointed. They might then also try to trade this for a few days, maybe a week or two all the while watching their account erode, guess what they ain’t going to use a demo account as this is such a “hot” and “sure thing”… “just look what it did yesterday for the proof”. This is like taking a tip off the “bloke down the pub” because a “friend of his” knew “someone” that was talking to an employee of xzy company about a sale he had made some good commissions on. So of course that company must be a good one to invest in!!!
So now that my rant about some of the rubbish that people “think” is good without out actually checking the facts is over, the cycle of new trader generally speaking is something like this… and Ive watched a lot of people doing it and caught myself doing it early in my own trading career.
Find an entry strategy/method back test it for a few days/weeks… looks good, “I’ll give this a go”
Watch it in real time for a day or two… “This is making, easy money. Why I’m I just watching it? Tomorrow I’ll live trade it”
Tomorrow comes, live trading starts… they are all excited, might even get lucky for a day or two, on a good trade, might have missed one… “I’ll get them tomorrow” and them your up a few dozen or more pips.. “Great day. Easy!”
Then the losing/mixed trading cycle of the strategy happens and continues for the next few days/weeks… “What I’m I doing wrong? This was so easy” and so the decision to stop trading happens (or the decision that that strategy didn’t actually work in the first place is made and so they stop trading it)
And so the newby trader stops live trading licking wounds and reassessing the strategy making sure the rules have been understood, watching the strategy unfold. At this point they might see a few more potential losses and think “what a good decision to stop” and then the next several days are spent watching the winning cycle of the strategy profit after profit is seen, confidence is built and “if I had stuck with it all those losses would have been returned to me, I’ll start trading again tomorrow”
So the new trader continues this cycle of watching a winning phase, trading a loosing… and maybe getting lucky in the overlap of cycles but on the whole watching equity erode out of the live account and “if I had just stayed with it from the start, I’d be making a lot of money and kissing the day job goodbye!”
Consistency in trading is a big key with the application of a strategy when you find one that suits your personality or from sticking one a strategy rather than jumping around from method to method.
Of course all the above assumes that the strategy in question is well rounded and not only includes “just and entry method” but also an exit strategy and trade/money management.
Ultimately have a well rounded and complete written trading plan that you have faith in, that is back tested AND forward tested before you commit your hard earned money on the markets.
Don’t fall into the trap of stopping and starting a strategy, realise that you don’t have all the key components or jump from one strategy to another with every new day.
Trading is one of the few if not the only business in the world that allows you to practice before committing real money to the markets. So you can make all those mistakes and learn your new profession on a demo account.
Don’t just jump on the first hot strategy that you see or are told about, test it, see if it works for you, and find the proof for yourself.
Have a well rounded tested trading plan; know what you’re going to do, when you’re doing it and why you’re doing it at ever stage of the trading day.
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Hi Folks,
Slim pickings out there is Forex land today heading into NFP later in the day. It might present some trading opportunities but to be honest I have a low expectation of anythign significant.
Might be a good time to enjoy a long weekend and take the day off especially with some major profits already beening seen this week with for me already bagging an average months worth of pips
Enjoy
Phil
Slim pickings out there is Forex land today heading into NFP later in the day. It might present some trading opportunities but to be honest I have a low expectation of anythign significant.
Might be a good time to enjoy a long weekend and take the day off especially with some major profits already beening seen this week with for me already bagging an average months worth of pips
Enjoy
Phil
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its not really the power of Fibs in a trending market... its that a lot of people use and rely on them to take action...
As retail traders all we are doing is jumping on the shirt tails of the big dogs. So when price gets to an interesting level that you are watching... go straight to teh 3 basic questiosn
Where is price now?
What is it doing there?
How can I get involved?
So in a down trend level is ID'd on a rally and your looking for price to tell you that its starting to head down again making Lh LL's
As retail traders all we are doing is jumping on the shirt tails of the big dogs. So when price gets to an interesting level that you are watching... go straight to teh 3 basic questiosn
Where is price now?
What is it doing there?
How can I get involved?
So in a down trend level is ID'd on a rally and your looking for price to tell you that its starting to head down again making Lh LL's
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You might laugh when I say that I never look at the RR on a trade, what I'm more interested in is the trades potential for movement.
For example I use 123 reversal patterns quite a lot on the 89 tick chart (with tradestation they are quite good) the pattern itself as a target whihc on FX taking spreads into account often has a 1:1 RR... but I use this patter as a trigger into a larger potential movement.
Same with Break outs... I'm looking for potential If price is rangebound overnight (asian session) then you will usually see it do this and fluctuate in about 30-35% of its average days movement... the pattern target is the height of the range added to the break out point... this patterns target depending on how you manages your stops will give you 1:2 or 1:1 risk to reward. I use this pattern as a trigger into a larger movement... and based on an average days move I have 65-7-% of an average days move to capture.
For example I use 123 reversal patterns quite a lot on the 89 tick chart (with tradestation they are quite good) the pattern itself as a target whihc on FX taking spreads into account often has a 1:1 RR... but I use this patter as a trigger into a larger potential movement.
Same with Break outs... I'm looking for potential If price is rangebound overnight (asian session) then you will usually see it do this and fluctuate in about 30-35% of its average days movement... the pattern target is the height of the range added to the break out point... this patterns target depending on how you manages your stops will give you 1:2 or 1:1 risk to reward. I use this pattern as a trigger into a larger movement... and based on an average days move I have 65-7-% of an average days move to capture.
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Hi Folks,
Todays morning video showing some rare overnight ranges. Not see one for a few days on the pairs I'm watching and I was starting to wonder if I would see them at all this week.
Anyways, a couple of good looking set ups very clean and defined.
Happy Trading
Phil
YouTube - Forex Video | Set ups 11 Sept '08 | Analysis
Todays morning video showing some rare overnight ranges. Not see one for a few days on the pairs I'm watching and I was starting to wonder if I would see them at all this week.
Anyways, a couple of good looking set ups very clean and defined.
Happy Trading
Phil
YouTube - Forex Video | Set ups 11 Sept '08 | Analysis
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No Video today... had another rough night with my health
only three break out trades setting up this morning for me with profit potential
EURUSD already triggered
GBPCHF
USDCHF
The rest have already put in ATR or most of an ATR for me... so will be looking fo significant retracements and using fibs
only three break out trades setting up this morning for me with profit potential
EURUSD already triggered
GBPCHF
USDCHF
The rest have already put in ATR or most of an ATR for me... so will be looking fo significant retracements and using fibs
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Cheers options... been a lazy week for me really...
And what a day to end the week... OHMYGODOHMYGODOHMYGOD!!!
couple of early break outs and then fib retracement set ups to follow... this still a pullback but just to a fib level so I can refine the entry.... and then wooosh
Certainly makes up for some chop through the week and a great day to go into the weekend
Hope you all got a slice of the action
And what a day to end the week... OHMYGODOHMYGODOHMYGOD!!!
couple of early break outs and then fib retracement set ups to follow... this still a pullback but just to a fib level so I can refine the entry.... and then wooosh
Certainly makes up for some chop through the week and a great day to go into the weekend
Hope you all got a slice of the action
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Slim pickings out there in FX land again today ATR's having been done as well as some quite large gaps...
Looks like a day to play golf
Looks like a day to play golf
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Hi Folks,
Today's Forex Video showing the trade set ups that I'm looking at... it a little bit of a shame that Last nights JPY trades didn't hold, but hey that's life and there will always be other trade... I will take satisfaction at being right rather than being annoyed for getting stopped out with my normal trade management tactic.
Enjoy
Phil
Today's Forex Video showing the trade set ups that I'm looking at... it a little bit of a shame that Last nights JPY trades didn't hold, but hey that's life and there will always be other trade... I will take satisfaction at being right rather than being annoyed for getting stopped out with my normal trade management tactic.
Enjoy
Phil
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Break out trade set ups on
GBPCHF
CADCHF
USDCHF
Fibs on most of the other pairs are what I'll be looking for as well
Although not on my watch list USDCAD has BO potential.
video to follow
GBPCHF
CADCHF
USDCHF
Fibs on most of the other pairs are what I'll be looking for as well
Although not on my watch list USDCAD has BO potential.
video to follow
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Hi Folks
This mornings Video of whats setting up for me
YouTube - Forex Video | Set ups 17 Sept '08 | Analysis
This mornings Video of whats setting up for me
YouTube - Forex Video | Set ups 17 Sept '08 | Analysis
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Hi Folks,
I'm a little bit late with today's video but hey not much potential stating the day, only CADCHF with a break out move and most of the other pairs have put in a decent high low range overnight which is reducing my trading options today.
Looking for some deep retracements before committing to any further movements today.
Enjoy
Phil
I'm a little bit late with today's video but hey not much potential stating the day, only CADCHF with a break out move and most of the other pairs have put in a decent high low range overnight which is reducing my trading options today.
Looking for some deep retracements before committing to any further movements today.
Enjoy
Phil
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