Best Thread Phil Newton's Range Break Out strategy

[ampro]

There are a multitude of such sources out there (including free calendars) if you look hard enough.

As to whether you'd really wish to base your trading on their outpourings is another matter altogether.

Just because the weatherman predicts unbroken sunshine with light to moderate breezes, dosesn't necessarily equate to you not requiring a sound, resiliant umbrella - well certainly not in UK anyway

 

[ampro]

there is a trading opp on GBPCHF but I would say that you shoudl look a little closer at the 60 min chart and see what price is doing there as well as you will see a larger range in development over the last two days

Whilst folks are calculating & plotting intraday range extremes on some of these more racy pairs, don't overlook the weekly average range prints. They can be a decent marker for intra-week + moves, especially regards profit booking & compounding positions.

Many of the popular pairs mentioned here are hustling their respective weekly range boundaries yet again into today's late week trade.

GBPCHF currently vibrating closer to it's 660pip stretch @ 2.0209, EURJPY touched it (390pips) y'day @ 159.60 & GBPJPY bounced into late Tokyo trade earlier (585 pips) off 201.69. Cable will register it's print of 370 pips should prices roll onto 9425 today too.

If & when you receive a tradeable signal off your 60 or 240m frames it might prove beneficial to try manoeuvre or job yourself into a value seat (if the fundamental flows stack up), rather than prematurely cash out & waste a green light opportunity to run your positions (thus reducing bottom line costs etc).

These weekly average range tags are a legit torchlight to keep you honest when the technicals play ball.

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Range examples for 8 may '08

usual suspects CADCHF GBPJPY EURJPY GBPCHF CADJPY

enjoy
Phil

 

[Newtron Bomb]

there is a trading opp on GBPCHF but I would say that you shoudl look a little closer at the 60 min chart and see what price is doing there as well as you will see a larger range in development over the last two days

Here is the range that you were tlaking about as I see it on the 60 min charts, this is one we got in the live trading room

Same patterns different time frames

Enjoy
Phil

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Whilst folks are calculating & plotting intraday range extremes on some of these more racy pairs, don't overlook the weekly average range prints. They can be a decent marker for intra-week + moves, especially regards profit booking & compounding positions.

Many of the popular pairs mentioned here are hustling their respective weekly range boundaries yet again into today's late week trade.

GBPCHF currently vibrating closer to it's 660pip stretch @ 2.0209, EURJPY touched it (390pips) y'day @ 159.60 & GBPJPY bounced into late Tokyo trade earlier (585 pips) off 201.69. Cable will register it's print of 370 pips should prices roll onto 9425 today too.

If & when you receive a tradeable signal off your 60 or 240m frames it might prove beneficial to try manoeuvre or job yourself into a value seat (if the fundamental flows stack up), rather than prematurely cash out & waste a green light opportunity to run your positions (thus reducing bottom line costs etc).

These weekly average range tags are a legit torchlight to keep you honest when the technicals play ball.

Interesting points

While my main focus is intraday I will also look for the larger time frame trading opportunities for range break outs or range reversals which can offer up good trading set ups for larger time frame patterns

GBPJPY is one such pair that has been ranging well on the 240 min time frame within about a 600 pip boudary and now moved below the range lows

 

[FXSCALPER2]

There are a multitude of such sources out there (including free calendars) if you look hard enough.

As to whether you'd really wish to base your trading on their outpourings is another matter altogether.

Just because the weatherman predicts unbroken sunshine with light to moderate breezes, dosesn't necessarily equate to you not requiring a sound, resiliant umbrella - well certainly not in UK anyway

The wheatherman gets it right a lot though.

 

[Newtron Bomb]

The wheatherman analogy I think is a good comparison to trading. What they do is based on historic conditions come up with multiple scenarios of what is likely to happen they can filter down hundreds of different out comes from the models that they used based on these condition and present them to us over breakfast or the evening meal. As Michael Fish knows this can be completely wrong as conditions are constantly changing.

As traders looking at TA or FA we are doing exactly the same thing in that we are trying to come up with long short or sideways options based on how price has reacted in the past relative to what you ar looking at in real time... sometimes right, sometimes wrong

 

[ampro]

The wheatherman analogy I think is a good comparison to trading. What they do is based on historic conditions....

As Michael Fish knows, this can be completely wrong as conditions are constantly changing.

As traders looking at TA or FA we are doing exactly the same thing in that we are trying to come up with long short or sideways options based on how price has reacted in the past relative to what you ar looking at in real time...

Yep, you got it.

I wasn't really pulling DAVID133's request apart re; referencing these daily analysis sheets from the public domain, but you got to appreciate these characters are usually paid, regardless of their accuracy.

It's highly doubtful most of them actually lay regular $$'s on the line & folks who get into the (bad) habit of referring constantly to these 'technical' jabberings often come to rely on them as an alternative (or excuse) to their own summary of the situation.

As you say Newtron Bomb, the landscape can turn on a dime, & it's very dangerous to become too comfy with these characters jawboning & pumping their wares off these sites.

 

[Newtron Bomb]

May 12 break out examples

Hi Folks,
not posted for a fwe days due to time constraints

Some examples of break out trades that we took in the live trading room

GBPJPY

GBPCHF

Enjoy

Phil

 

[MGBRoadster]

Thanks for this article, Phil. Clear and well reasoned as usual.

One question though. Why an 89 tick chart? Aren't you afraid someone might get the jump on you with an 88 tick chart?

Cheers

Chris

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Not at all it offers a low risk entry oportunity that is based on price action movement and not time based bars

 

[brooks79]

great thread NB. Thanks for all your HELP! Your right rathcoole, I think GOD may even know more than I do! Duh..... Spoken like a true American......

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Some good patterns setting up today OVERNIGHT
GBPJY EURJPY CADCHF USDCHF EURUSD CADJPY
Slightly larger pattern setting up on
GBPCHF

Have fun on them
Enjoy
Phil

 

[alaa omran]

Newtron Bomb ,
thanks for helping me out with replies.
I greatly appreciate it.

sorry I thought you had posted GBPUSD didnt look close enough and saw that it was GBPCHF

there is a trading opp on GBPCHF but I would say that you shoudl look a little closer at the 60 min chart and see what price is doing there as well as you will see a larger range in development over the last two days

so you use multiple time frame analysis ?? 60 and 15 minutes chart ??

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Newtron Bomb ,
thanks for helping me out with replies.
I greatly appreciate it.

so you use multiple time frame analysis ?? 60 and 15 minutes chart ??

I use 240 min 60 min 15 min and 89 tick charts

Swing trades based off 240 and at a push 60 depending on the chart patterns developing and intraday patterns based off 60 and 15 min charts

 

[alaa omran]

HI Newtron Bomb ,

what is the percentage of winning trades to expect from this system .......

is your system depend on the concept of " opening range breakout " if not ..what is your concept ?

thanks

 

[Newtron Bomb]

My result from the live trading room including other set ups I use are here

Graphs are up to date for the end of April, spread sheet is up to date as of yesterday.

 

[black bear]

89 ticks

I use 240 min 60 min 15 min and 89 tick charts

Swing trades based off 240 and at a push 60 depending on the chart patterns developing and intraday patterns based off 60 and 15 min charts

Q: ticks against the small minutes for entry


advantage, reasons why etc :?:

why 89 ticks = odd number Why :?:

oh hell

Just WHY

Andy

 

[Newtron Bomb]

why, why not? lol
Tick not time dependant, more bars when active less bars when market inactive
Reason, was looking at them on the dow mini's and put them on FX to see what they looked like...
89, fib number and gives about the same look as a 2-3 min chart.

 

[jwhite8359]

Hi Phil

Can't see where the results spreadsheet is.

Was hoping to be able to see how the monthly performance is made up in terms of strike rate and drawdown.

John