One Trade a Week

[TraderJW]

Hey guys, enjoying this thread very much. I've been thinking for a while about my trade as I usually wait for confirmation on the daily charts but I have no such luxury as it is Sunday.
Hmm my trade will be:

Ticker: AUS/USD
Direction: Short

Market Order @ 1.0257
SL @ 1.0357
Target Price @ 1.0000
Risk:Reward = 2:5

Obviously the odds of success will be better if I wait for a daily reversal on the daily charts but still a decent R.

 

[isatrader]

Hey guys, enjoying this thread very much. I've been thinking for a while about my trade as I usually wait for confirmation on the daily charts but I have no such luxury as it is Sunday.
Hmm my trade will be:

Ticker: AUS/USD
Direction: Short

Market Order @ 1.0257
SL @ 1.0357
Target Price @ 1.0000
Risk:Reward = 2:5

Obviously the odds of success will be better if I wait for a daily reversal on the daily charts but still a decent R.

Thanks for joining in TraderJW. Can I just clarify with you about the order. If you use a market order you will get the opening price I have at midnight tonight. So if you want to enter only if it hits 1.0257 or gaps through it then it would need to be a "limit" order instead. Alternately, you can wait for confirmation on the daily charts and enter manually on the thread. To do this you just need to ask for a "warehoused" order and then when you want to enter you just do a quick post stating "ENTER" and I will give you the closing price on the one minute bar I have using the time of the post.

I hope that makes sense. Let me know and I'll sort out your ATR targets for you.

 

[TraderJW]

Oh ok the warehoused order sounds good. So let's say for example that the rate continues to go up until wednesday when it posts a reversal candle, then I can enter Wednesday night manually? That is exactly what I'm wanting to do. So i guess i need to change my order to:

Ticker: AUS/USD
Direction: Short

Warehoused order after confirmation.
SL and Target price are unknown until confirmation.

 

[chilltrader]

Warehoused BUY Order for EUR-CAD

 

[isatrader]

Oh ok the warehoused order sounds good. So let's say for example that the rate continues to go up until wednesday when it posts a reversal candle, then I can enter Wednesday night manually? That is exactly what I'm wanting to do. So i guess i need to change my order to:

Ticker: AUS/USD
Direction: Short

Warehoused order after confirmation.
SL and Target price are unknown until confirmation.

Yep that's right, I try and make it as real as possible but we have zero spreads which is a bit of an advantage.

So here's your initial ATR targets based on Fridays closing price of 1.0258 for AUD/USD.

ATR Targets

Daily ATR(200) = 0.0097 (0.95%)
Weekly ATR(52) = 0.0291 (2.84%)

-1x ATR: 1.0355
1x ATR: 1.0161
1.5x ATR: 1.0113
2x ATR: 1.0064

These are only initial targets and I will update them when you enter during the week. To calculate them yourself just use the Daily ATR(200) figure of 0.0097 as a 1x ATR move.

Let me know if you have any other questions.

Cheers

 

[isatrader]

Warehoused BUY Order for EUR-CAD

Thanks chill, here's your initial ATR targets based on Fridays close of 1.3814

ATR Targets

Daily ATR(200) = 0.0114 (0.83%)
Weekly ATR(52) = 0.0381 (2.76%)

-1x ATR: 1.3700
1x ATR: 1.3928
1.5x ATR: 1.3985
2x ATR: 1.4042

Good luck

 

[TraderJW]

Ok brilliant. Pardon my ignorance but what do we use the ATR targets for then? And also how is the risk level factored into the competition?

I'm sure these question have been answered somewhere in the thread but are difficult to find.

Thanks TJW.

 

[isatrader]

Ok brilliant. Pardon my ignorance but what do we use the ATR targets for then? And also how is the risk level factored into the competition?

I'm sure these question have been answered somewhere in the thread but are difficult to find.

Thanks TJW.

No worries, it is the scoring system I devised near the beginning of the thread to be able to make it fair across all products whether it be forex, stocks, indexes etc.

We use the 200 day average true range to determine how much each product moves on an average day. This then gives us a baseline to determine how good or bad a trade it is and is a method of position sizing. For example, my pick this week is the stock BG.L which has a 200 day ATR of 31.72 points, so in order for me to make a 1% ATR adjusted gain this week I'd need to get a 31.72 point move. You have picked AUD/USD which has a 200 day ATR of 0.0097, so in order for you to make a 1% ATR adjusted gain you'd need to get a 0.0097 move.

You can risk as much as you choose to, everyone starts from 0%, but your percentages are added together each week so if you lose for example 2% ATR adjusted this week then next week you are starting 2% down overall.

Here's my results over the last 8 weeks so you can see what I mean:

4/2/11______1.03%
11/2/11_____0.73%
18/2/11_____0.56%
25/2/11_____-1.39%
4/3/11______-1.61%
11/3/11_____1.11%
18/3/11_____-0.15%
25/3/11_____1.58%

Total: 1.86%

So you can see in weeks 4 and 5 I had two fairly big loses which has dragged my overall percentage down.

I hope that helps

 

[TradeTheEasyWay]

Hi Guys,

Well done everyone. Naf week for me, that USDCAD call was poor but I had a great week overall with the gbp pairs dropping and stocks holding up well.

US gdp and jobs were very positive last week so let's see how we get on this week with non farm payroll on Friday.

I'm going long audcad

AUDCAD daily
broken above key level, will enter on a pull back
ENTRY:1.0015
STOP:.9897
TARGET:1.02598

Good luck everyone. By the way Dave, I didn't mind the bit about group performance, all my trades are void of outside interference; just focussed on the charts.

Mike

 

[TraderJW]

Ah I see. So we are looking for movements relative to the true range of the product. That changes things quite a lot. The actual percentage gains are completely irrelevant to the competition then and the ATR percentages are how we are judged? Can we use a double position or more then as well so that 1% ATR is actually 2% etc.

That makes sense and I think I understand now... hopefully. I will have to change my trade idea however.

 

[isatrader]

Ah I see. So we are looking for movements relative to the true range of the product. That changes things quite a lot. The actual percentage gains are completely irrelevant to the competition then and the ATR percentages are how we are judged? Can we use a double position or more then as well so that 1% ATR is actually 2% etc.

That makes sense and I think I understand now... hopefully. I will have to change my trade idea however.

Correct, ATR percentages are how we are judged. Actual percentage gains are irrelevant as for example a stock might move 4% in a day, where as a currency pair only moves around 1% a day. So the average true range gets rid of that to make it fair whatever you trade.

I don't allow any double positions. It's just based on the amount of points you get relative to the 200 day ATR on a single position size.

The average winning trade has been around a 1.5% ATR adjusted gain, so 1 and half times the average full daily range.

If you noticed I also included the 52 week ATR figure when I gave you your targets, so you can see how much your chosen product moves in an average week as well. So AUD/USD moves 0.0097 in an average day and 0.0291 in an average week. So a 3% ATR gain is very possible for AUD/USD.

 

[isatrader]

Hi Guys,

Well done everyone. Naf week for me, that USDCAD call was poor but I had a great week overall with the gbp pairs dropping and stocks holding up well.

US gdp and jobs were very positive last week so let's see how we get on this week with non farm payroll on Friday.

I'm going long audcad

AUDCAD daily
broken above key level, will enter on a pull back
ENTRY:1.0015
STOP:.9897
TARGET:1.02598

Good luck everyone. By the way Dave, I didn't mind the bit about group performance, all my trades are void of outside interference; just focused on the charts.

Mike

Thanks Mike, I'll leave the group stuff out though from now on as was just me getting carried away. Here's your ATR targets for AUDCAD.

ATR Targets

Daily ATR(200) = 0.0081 (0.81%)
Weekly ATR(52) = 0.0224 (2.24%)

-1x ATR: 0.9934
1x ATR: 1.0096
1.5x ATR: 1.0137
2x ATR: 1.0177

Good luck

 

[wigtrade]

Evening traders,
I'm currently loaded up to the long side (BARC, BNZL, RB.) so here's a bear trade to balance things out

PRU (Prudential) - SELL

Price is at interesting resistance level on the weekly (chart 1)

Daily looks to be forming a h&s/quasimodo pattern culminating in a fantastic bearish engulfing candle on friday right on res level (chart 2)

Looking down to intraday for entry (chart 3) ideally I'd be looking for a break and retest of 718 support level from below to get in short super cheap on the intraday but work will not allow this week so will set an order instead.

Limit order 717
Stop 737

Target 680

Order set
cheers,
Wig

 

[Canto1922]

My first entry - bit of a rush job as busy w/e.

Ticker: ISYS
Direction: Long

Limit Order: 355

Stop loss: 330
Target: 380

Entry Reason:
Bid speculation & change of CEO.

 

[chilltrader]

enter (have done so in my SB account)

isatrader - feel free to use the 00:00 price

Target @ 13950
Stop @ 13660

 

[isatrader]

PRU (Prudential) - SELL
Limit order 717
Stop 737
Target 680

Thanks wig, here's your initial ATR targets:

ATR Targets

Daily ATR(200) = 16.68 (2.33%)
Weekly ATR(52) = 41.15 (5.74%)

-1x ATR: 733.68
1x ATR: 700.32
1.5x ATR: 691.98
2x ATR: 683.64

Good luck

 

[isatrader]

enter (have done so in my SB account)

isatrader - feel free to use the 00:00 price

Target @ 13950
Stop @ 13660

Ok thanks chill. I'll have to use the 00:00 time price so it's consistent for the competition this week. But we can discuss the possibility of changing the competition start time with the group during the week as a few people have wanted to enter on the Sunday night now.

 

[isatrader]

My first entry - bit of a rush job as busy w/e.

Ticker: ISYS
Direction: Long

Limit Order: 355

Stop loss: 330
Target: 380

Entry Reason:
Bid speculation & change of CEO.

Welcome to the game Canto1922. Here's your initial ATR targets:

ATR Targets

Daily ATR(200) = 9.46 (2.66%)
Weekly ATR(52) = 22.75 (6.41%)

-1x ATR: 345.54
1x ATR: 364.46
1.5x ATR: 369.19
2x ATR: 373.92

Good luck

 

[SlipperyC]

Good evening all.

My trade for this week is;

LIMIT SHORT DAX from 7002
Stop: 7215
Target: 6680

Reason: I think it was too strong a bounce from the lows and it will need to retest the recent lows - or thereabouts.

 

[isatrader]

Good evening all.

My trade for this week is;

LIMIT SHORT DAX from 7002
Stop: 7215
Target: 6680

Reason: I think it was too strong a bounce from the lows and it will need to retest the recent lows - or thereabouts.

Thanks Slip, here are your initial targets

ATR Targets

Daily ATR(200) = 94.39 (1.35%)
Weekly ATR(52) = 238.96 (3.41%)

-1x ATR: 7096.39
1x ATR: 6907.61
1.5x ATR: 6860.42
2x ATR: 6813.22

Good luck