One Trade a Week

[isatrader]

I've finally come up with a good solution for making it fair every week – Average True Range.

Ok, so the way I'm going to do it is to use the 200 day Average True Range (ATR) of a product as the baseline for how well someone has done.

So for example:

FRES – ATR(200) = 43.64 (3.32%)
BP. – ATR(200) = 14.68 (3.05%)
DAX – ATR(200) = 101.80 (1.43%)

This shows that a 3.32% move in FRES is equivalent to a 1.43% move in the DAX over the same timescale. So I will divide the percentage gain or loss by the ATR(200) percentage to give a fair percentage.

For example if all three of the above made a 3% gain then the results would be:

FRES – 3% / 3.32% = 0.90%
BP. – 3% / 3.05% = 1.01%
DAX – 3% / 1.43% = 2.09%

So because a 3% move in the DAX is harder to achieve than a 3% move in FRES, then the 3% move in the DAX would be the winner.

Does this seem fairer?

 

[Pat494]

Haven't a clue what you are on about but I expect you know what you are talking about, hopefully.

Let's see what happens

:whistling

 

[isatrader]

Thanks Pat, lets see how it develops

 

[isatrader]

A reminder for anyone else that wants to play this week. The end of today (Sunday) is the deadline for submitting a pick.

Cheers

 

[SlipperyC]

I see where you are going with ATR, its quite technical! Maybe the assumption we are making is that all trades will be 'winners'! What about 2pts for a winning trade, 1pt for breakeven, 0pts for a losing trade?

You seem quite mathematically inclined isatrader! Are you a statistician or something??

 

[isatrader]

I see where you are going with ATR, its quite technical! Maybe the assumption we are making is that all trades will be 'winners'! What about 2pts for a winning trade, 1pt for breakeven, 0pts for a losing trade?

You seem quite mathematically inclined isatrader! Are you a statistician or something??

Graphic Designer. Maths isn't really my forte, but with a bit help from formulas in excel and a calculator I seem to get by.

I wouldn't say ATR is that technical. But it is a really good measure of volatility, so I think it's what we need to provide a baseline when we are trading products with such different volatility.

We can do the simple scoring you suggested as well. I'm happy with that.

 

[SlipperyC]

I actually meant the method of using ATR rather than ATR itself, sorry for not making myself clear.

 

[TradeTheEasyWay]

CADJPY

see the chart. Like the weekly chart for this too.

entry: 82.40
stop 83.58
target: 79

Daily has had lower low, lower high / weekly broken down below all the ema's, yen index breaking out as safe haven.

Mike

 

[isatrader]

CADJPY

see the chart. Like the weekly chart for this too.

Hi Mike, just to confirm this is what I've got from your chart.

Ticker: CADJPY
Direction: Short

Order type: Limit

Planned Entry: 82.40

Stop loss: ???
Target: 79

So currently if the price hits 82.40 you will be entered short, but you need to confirm a stop loss please or it's not valid. If you wanted to enter the trade manually then change the order type to "warehoused" and then type "enter" when you want to enter the trade and again specify a stop loss.

Thanks

 

[isatrader]

I actually meant the method of using ATR rather than ATR itself, sorry for not making myself clear.

Sorry, I was just having trouble finding something that would cater for all the different products and be a decent measure of performance. I use ATR a lot in my trading and think it will level the playing field. But I like your way too, as it keeps things simple for people playing occasionally especially.

 

[isatrader]

Do you think we should set an automatic stop loss distance if people forget to do it?

I'd suggest we give them an risk/reward 1:2?

 

[SlipperyC]

Wall Street! Sky1!!

 

[SlipperyC]

re; automatic stop loss.

Sorry to sound harsh but if 'you' forget to set a stop-loss, should 'you' really be trading??

If 'you' don't consider the implications of a trade before entering then 'you' are going to ruin yourself.

 

[isatrader]

Wall Street! Sky1!!

Brilliant, I picked up the DVD at Christmas. He's just about to do the famous speech.

The sequel was terrible though!

 

[isatrader]

re; automatic stop loss.

Sorry to sound harsh but if 'you' forget to set a stop-loss, should 'you' really be trading??

If 'you' don't consider the implications of a trade before entering then 'you' are going to ruin yourself.

I agree, I was just trying to be kind to people as it was the first week of this thread and thought it was a bit harsh to void the trade if it didn't have one.

 

[isatrader]

If anyone else wants to join in the game then please get your trades in by the end of today:

These are current positions for this weeks game:

isatrader – LSE FRES – Long
SlipperyC – DBI DAX – Long
Pat494 – LSE BP. – Short
TradeTheEasyWay – FX CADJPY – Short

I will post the detailed list later on

 

[isatrader]

Week 1 Trades Spreadsheet

Attached is the detailed list of this weeks players initial trades. I've given TradeTheEasyWay an automatic stop at 1.5% as he left it out on his trade. In the future if the trade isn't submitted following the rules set out in the first post then it will be void and not count towards the week.

Everyone playing is allowed to adjust their entries, stop losses and targets on their limit orders by just posting the changes on the thread. Or if you change to a market order then you will get the price at the close of the bar for that minute. The time is given as the post time on the thread.

To exit simply type "Exit" in a new post.

Good luck

 

[isatrader]

Enter – fres

 

[isatrader]

FRES – 1 minute closing price at 8.52am was 1285

Trade

Ticker: FRES
Direction: Long

Actual Entry: 1285

Stop loss: 1248.86 (2.89%)
Target: 1374 (6.93%)

Risk Ratio: 2.39

 

[TradeTheEasyWay]

Hi Mike, just to confirm this is what I've got from your chart.

Ticker: CADJPY
Direction: Short

Order type: Limit

Planned Entry: 82.40

Stop loss: ???
Target: 79

So currently if the price hits 82.40 you will be entered short, but you need to confirm a stop loss please or it's not valid. If you wanted to enter the trade manually then change the order type to "warehoused" and then type "enter" when you want to enter the trade and again specify a stop loss.

Thanks

Sorry, will be precise next time.

CADJPY

see the chart. Like the weekly chart for this too.

entry: 82.40
stop 83.58
target: 79


Mike