Oil trade - long term, opinions please!

[Phenyo]

not really.. after oil has bottomed there will be a countertrend.. but that will last for maybe maximum 6 months.. after that.. it will decline.. like a Baksteen (as we say in Holland

enjoy

Yes I understand what it means to fall like a baksteen. RidderTrade, I am struggling along with the same challenge and am looking for an instrument or means to take a long position in oil but have yet to find one. As for the decline in the price of oil, even with what's happening to Gaza that to me is a short term spike and perhaps when OPEC cuts oil it may potentially increase again but I think the adverse economic news from EU will extend more downward pressure. As for the Euro; although some economies in the Eurozone are better equipped than others to deal with the downturn, it goes without saying the Euro is temp overpriced relative to the dollar and pound. We will see how news of slowing sectors ( in the EU) will have an impact on Euro's relative strength; they seems to have failedf to price a slowdown. The Eurozone is not as decoupled from US exposure as these folk(politicians and central bankers) may have wished and still do it was. Tot siens

 

[RidderTrade]

Yes I understand what it means to fall like a baksteen. RidderTrade, I am struggling along with the same challenge and am looking for an instrument or means to take a long position in oil but have yet to find one. As for the decline in the price of oil, even with what's happening to Gaza that to me is a short term spike and perhaps when OPEC cuts oil it may potentially increase again but I think the adverse economic news from EU will extend more downward pressure. As for the Euro; although some economies in the Eurozone are better equipped than others to deal with the downturn, it goes without saying the Euro is temp overpriced relative to the dollar and pound. We will see how news of slowing sectors ( in the EU) will have an impact on Euro's relative strength; they seems to have failedf to price a slowdown. The Eurozone is not as decoupled from US exposure as these folk(politicians and central bankers) may have wished and still do it was. Tot siens

hello.. the 23.6 retracement of oil is at 56$

yeah euro wil put some downward pressure in the oil.. but also euro wil set for a longer term bounce.. after bottom..is put in..

enjoy.. tot ziens

 

[KUTERO]

 

[energytrade]

If you can only trade front months you could get killed on the month to month rollovers in this market. Feb/Mar going out at 8 usd/bbl and these weak expiries could continue for a while. Safer to buy an outer month contract (although you'll be paying way above the prompt price) or use the Brent contract. Stay clear of WTI as its bordering on dysfunctional with the delivery location at cushing completely full (and a bunch of crude stored on tankers ready to go in there as soon as there's space.

 

[KUTERO]

 

[42*S]

That's a classic chart pattern called the "nobody knows" pattern which has the potential for huge profits! We just have to wait for a "nobody knows" signal to enter the trade. :smart:

 

[Mike2000uk]

If your using rolling contracts with a sb firstly make sure that you have instucted them to roll or they will just be closed out at expiration.
When they roll your profits or losses will be debited or credited to your account, then a new position will be opened in the new contract with the same contingent orders as the original position. You will have to review your stoploss at every expiration. if the current month has increased then your stoploss will not reach zero anymore.
Thats how it goes with IG anyway may vary with others.

 

[investcdn]

Oilwatch Monthly reports that despite significant cuts “supply is still significantly higher than demand.” On March 15, “OPEC agreed that no further oil cuts in oil production will be made and that it will focus in the coming months on complying with previously announced cuts of 4.2 million bpd – 80% of which has been achieved to date in circumstances where OPEC’s price target of US$70 has not been achieved, and where OPEC now thinks it ‘has to live with’ a US$42 price.”