Not out of the woods yet.....

[titus-uk]

So, Bush won. As you can see, very little differenc in the markets, as that fact has been factored in for a week or more.

Back to valuation worries again. Looks like things are going to head down again. The only hope I can see is that we MAY form a nice double bottom on the major indices, from which we will rally come January. Unfortunately, I suspect that things will not improve until then. The only thing that psychologically knocks confidence more than a rapid fall, is a fall - rally that dries up - further fall!

Decided to get out of my only long position today - BLM at 400. Still a loss, but not as big as 2 weeks ago. I suspect that with all the FTSE100 tracker funds selling soon + tech uncertainty, the price is more likely to reach 300 than 500!

I'm out either until things collapse so far that another bounce comes, or until things consolidate.....please remind me of that fact should I sound tempted on this BB!!!

Take care all...things may get worse before they get better!
Mark

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[cookie]

Ditto

Yet again managed to turn a £800 profit into a £2000 loss so far this week. Holding SHP and TFC T+7 or until stop loss broken.

No more trading this year.

You note we always say this after a bad day, then when things appear to pick up we cant resist a cheapy and then get our fingers burnt yet again.

100 point moves in either direction is no good to the active trader unless you are daytrading long or short in which case you are gambling big time.

Dare I say, in this climate TA is totally inefective. However indices charts foresee a continual down trend for some while ie Nasdaq to 2400 or even lower.

I believe it was Uncle who mentioned the power of three:- Well I have now completed my third and last wave of diving in to what appears to be a positive rally only to be thwarted by a profit warning or some other negative from across the pond. Them bleedin 'septics' are a pain in the butt, what relevance should they have to the UK market? - but they do. The tech sector is totally Naz driven and i am getting fed up of spending the morning studying the Naz futures.

Whatever anyone says we are gamblers when we are down we cry in our beer, when we are up we want to buy champagne.

Boo hoo.... boo hoo.... boo hoo - Hic!!!




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[titus-uk]

Cookie - I understand your point. Now I look at Naz futures/indices BEFORE I settle down and study the UK charts, because of how we follow like sheep. Crazy really....

Continue from a previous thread re Naz cycles. I have not done even any basic analysis on tthe Naz chart. However, as I write its 3.34% down at the close. Futures down 55. As I said above, psychologically this is so damaging. Alan Greenspans comments bought people out of their shells to splash out on equities.....many now nursing a loss. These people will be cynical next time, a whole block of people are now locked in....meaning no new money to go in, and they will be only to happy to get out to break even on any rise. There may be another bounce in the days before Xmas, but a bonce is probably all it will be.
Interesting chat with Chris Byars on his trading strategy today (from Omnitrader). He deliberately avoids the ARMs, Baltimores etc - the really volatile ones. Instead, he chooses liquid stocks that are not hyped up. When they rise they tend to be more predictable - maybe less profit taking/ exiting at break-even points? I don't know - interesting idea though....
Take care everyone......still a big bad place out there
Mark

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[traderx]

Things could get much worse with profit warning for Microsoft Corp, the first in its 10 year history. The effects will be felt far and wide. This could be a turning point in the market. For the time being the bears will be firmly in control. Until the Fed make the first of their projected rate cuts in say, February or March or perhaps as late as May (that I doubt) I can see little change in sentiment going forward. In the past we have talked about the possibility of a crash. With talk of a return to recession in Japan and now this latest profit warning anything could happen. It does not augur well for first half of 2001. However, some forecasters are predicting a better second half for 2001 as rate cuts start to take effect. Take care you guys, looks like very little chance of Christmas cheer this year.

Tx

 

[titus-uk]

Thanks Traderx...just came along myself to post the same bit of information for everyone. The only chance we have is to share any news as soon as we get it.

This is a serious turn for the worse. I had a rolling stoploss on BLM - got out yesterday with a £1000 overall loss.....I am so relieved, because this might get FAR worse before it gets better. Be very careful - a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money....make sure you are not one of them!
Mark

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[traderx]

Thanks Mark, I agree with your sentiments, this could be serious with wide spread ramifications. I am out of the market right now. I was almost tempted, in the recent rally but I have to admit I have lost my nerve and I did not trust Greenspans advice. I wished I had bought BLM but you needed to be brave, in at the bottom and astute enough to get out early. Iv'e lost too many times this year and I will stay out until after the sell off which is now gathering speed. The market will dupe investors with occasional bounce then as you have said, 'Bull Trap' and your locked in. Gut renching decision time. I bet you feel great relief at getting out, despite losing a grand. You made the right decision and will have a better weekend. It cannot hurt you any more. I still think a market crash is not impossible if market sell off reaches critical mass. Once your out of the market, things become more interesting with pressure off. Trouble is, shares still have no legs but traders always hope for better. The equity risk premium is not sufficient to justify risk in investing in this market.

Tx