New Frontiers in technical analysis

[mitsubishi]

imo markets are similar to weather. prediction is possible in chaotic systems? it depends, on what we want to predict.

easy- will SP100 be grater in 2015 than today close?
hard- what will be today FTSE100 close?

enjoy

Chaotic? no. There is nothing chaotic in a market that has rallied on the back of paper money that does not exist and manipulation through government intervention.There is nothing chaotic in stop runs.Nor in support turning to resistance in a downtrend at a price the market remembers from the past,even years in the past.It is not a chaotic battle,but a battle between 2 sides one of which is armed with massive funds and better information and with government collusion.
But even with all their advantages they will not prevent the markets destined appointment at the bear market lows and probably lower.If there appears to be chaos on your chart you are probably looking at a very small timeframe-'noise'

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Chaotic? no. There is nothing chaotic in a market that has rallied on the back of paper money that does not exist and manipulation through government intervention.There is nothing chaotic in stop runs.Nor in support turning to resistance in a downtrend at a price the market remembers from the past,even years in the past.It is not a chaotic battle,but a battle between 2 sides one of which is armed with massive funds and better information and with government collusion.
But even with all their advantages they will not prevent the markets destined appointment at the bear market lows and probably lower.

I used to think like you.

 

[rawrschach]

Mitsubishi, Aaron is our resident source of methane.

Aaron why don't you shut up and listen to someone that obviously has real market knowledge beyond that of staring at candlesticks, regardless of the validity of his methods. I suppose you buy the 'recession is over' bull****.

BTW there are plenty of mathematical price projection methods that coincide perfectly with traditional S/R easily available on mypivots.

 

[mitsubishi]

Aaron why don't you shut up and listen to someone that obviously has real market knowledge beyond that of staring at candlesticks, regardless of the validity of his methods. I suppose you buy the 'recession is over' bull****.

BTW there are plenty of mathematical price projection methods that coincide perfectly with traditional S/R easily available on mypivots.

Welcome raw,thanks for the comment and support.I look forward to hearing whatever you want to tell me/us.

 

[mitsubishi]

"The market is perfectly geometrical and mathmatical"
:arrowu:
Bollox

Anyway there's nothing new in that statement when you consider the application of e waves and fibs but it's still wrong IMO.

You are entitled to your own view but did your first word to me have to be 'bollox'
Anyway,i will give you the benefit of the doubt since you said in your second post you used to think like me.Maybe you missed something in your investigations... And fibs and elliott are valid tools used correctly,so maybe we can find common ground.But i would like to keep this thread gentlemanly,im not a moderator,and i'm the new guy here but,consider it a polite request.

 

[N Rothschild]

imo markets are similar to weather. prediction is possible in chaotic systems? it depends, on what we want to predict.

easy- will SP100 be grater in 2015 than today close?
hard- what will be today FTSE100 close?

enjoy

is it? where well it be in 2015 then

 

[Charlton]

This is all very reminiscent of Gann's geometry. Here are a few links, but there are loads more that discuss angles on charts, especially 45 degrees. Perhaps the most interesting link is the gannstation one, because of the message it gives out - makes you think eh ????



Charlton

Price, Time and Market Geometry By Earik Beann

http://www.stockcyclesforecast.com/Geobk.pdf

Geometry of the Stockmarket

SQUARE OF NINE PRINCIPLES AT WORK

GannStation Gann Cycle Geometry for TradeStation

Gann Angles, Time and Price Analysis, Basic Explanation, W. D. Gann, Geometric Angles, 45 degree, 1 X 1, square, circle, spiral, master calculator, ratios, mechanical trading, the best, top-performing market timing methods, technical analysis, fast r

 

[TheBramble]

This is all very reminiscent of Gann's geometry.

It is?

I haven't seen anything so far to shake a stick at although Mitsu is certainly hinting toward that area. Lots of hints. LOL.

I'm more interested in: FIBONACCI SUPPORT and RESISTANCE PIVOTS.

 

[Charlton]

It is?

I haven't seen anything so far to shake a stick at although Mitsu is certainly hinting toward that area. Lots of hints. LOL.

I'm more interested in: FIBONACCI SUPPORT and RESISTANCE PIVOTS.

Sorry

I was pre-empting things having read a thread in Trader's Laboratory along the same lines and by someone called Mitsubishi.

This is not meant to be a criticism of either this thread or the one in TL, but merely an observation that could add to the discussion, if it is in the same vein as the TL thread

Forgot where I was

Charlton

 

[mitsubishi]

It is?

I haven't seen anything so far to shake a stick at although Mitsu is certainly hinting toward that area. Lots of hints. LOL.

I'm more interested in: FIBONACCI SUPPORT and RESISTANCE PIVOTS.

We gravitate to what we think/know will work for us.Fibonacci is ever present in the markets not just in price but in time.Does no one here use time targets as well as price targets? I do.
As to my old freebie website yes in retrospect it seems lame,but as you say yourself there was nothing for sale there either just the desire to share the investigation process with others.
What you seem to really be saying is that if i am not willing to lay out everything i know/think i know,then this thread is pretty pointless.If that is the majority view then i may just disappear as suddenly as i arrived.I must say that would be pretty disappointing but let's see what happens.But who here lays out everything they know?...

 

[mitsubishi]

This is all very reminiscent of Gann's geometry. Here are a few links, but there are loads more that discuss angles on charts, especially 45 degrees. Perhaps the most interesting link is the gannstation one, because of the message it gives out - makes you think eh ????



Charlton

Price, Time and Market Geometry By Earik Beann

http://www.stockcyclesforecast.com/Geobk.pdf

Geometry of the Stockmarket

SQUARE OF NINE PRINCIPLES AT WORK

GannStation Gann Cycle Geometry for TradeStation

Gann Angles, Time and Price Analysis, Basic Explanation, W. D. Gann, Geometric Angles, 45 degree, 1 X 1, square, circle, spiral, master calculator, ratios, mechanical trading, the best, top-performing market timing methods, technical analysis, fast r

Thanks for the links.Way too many lines on that gannstation chart.If it isn't simple and clean looking,it really is of little value to me,that's the approach i have tried to maintain (at the risk of missing something) Gann is impenatrable to me and i think there are too many lines.But he was legendry and probably a genius and i am neither and never will be.But,if you project a fan from some point,with so many lines it will hit prices... All i know is that my model is very simple.the geometry is simple and the part completion of a fractual gives you an exact price at an exact time.The KEY prices that outline the fractual when calculated in a very simple way,give you exactly the same price. That is what happened with my 998 call. There are other prices that are contained within a large fractual which can form smaller fractuals and they will work in exactly the same way.Today could be an example of that depending on the close and what we get.
When 998 appeared and squared price with time there was a sense of completion.This maybe why we have small range sideways chop and i dont have a clear signal.This morning i said i would have to be vague because i dont have a partly completed fractual to calculate from.I only have projected angles which inevitably will hit prices.Though nowhere near as many as a Gann fan for example.
The projected angles will hit prices then as more angles connect they link prices together to form fractuals,When you know what these fractuals look like you are able to complete them way ahead of the market.Hence,where this fractual completes is the predicted price at a predicted time The maths confirms the price.It almost like watching somthing biological taking form,like an organism.You will not be getting signals every day.There is always an alternative scenario which you may/may not be aware of,This is where you have to be discretionary in your use of it,But in hindsite it will be perfect regardless.

 

[Charlton]

Thanks for the links.Way too many lines on that gannstation chart. .

The point of that link was not the pretty picture they were displaying but rather their notice stating "Notice: Due to provisions of an institutional licensing agreement, the retail version of GannStation is no longer available. In other words an organisation is willing to pay for exclusivity of a geometric product

If it isn't simple and clean looking,it really is of little value to me,that's the approach i have tried to maintain (at the risk of missing something)
.

Agreed - Keep it simple

.But,if you project a fan from some point,with so many lines it will hit prices...
.

Agreed - I also find this is a problem with fib levels when generally drawn - there are so many, especially if you include the additional round fractions, that you are almost bound to hit one (or as many commentators do, nearly hit one)

All i know is that my model is very simple.the geometry is simple and the part completion of a fractual gives you an exact price at an exact time.The KEY prices that outline the fractual when calculated in a very simple way,give you exactly the same price.
.

Agreed - keep it simple

There are other prices that are contained within a large fractual which can form smaller fractuals and they will work in exactly the same way......... squared price with time there was a sense of completion..........I only have projected angles which inevitably will hit prices........When you know what these fractuals look like you are able to complete them way ahead of the market.Hence,where this fractual completes is the predicted price at a predicted time The maths confirms the price........ have to be discretionary in your use of it,.

Yes

Charlton

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Mitsubishi, Aaron is our resident source of methane.

Aaron why don't you shut up and listen to someone that obviously has real market knowledge beyond that of staring at candlesticks, regardless of the validity of his methods. I suppose you buy the 'recession is over' bull****.

BTW there are plenty of mathematical price projection methods that coincide perfectly with traditional S/R easily available on mypivots.

Yeh okay I'm wrong. Lets get rid of derivatives because we can all predict direction.

 

[kaciara]

is it? where well it be in 2015 then

hi. the odds of a negative return over 6-7 years are historical low.

just say'n that predicting stock market long term growth is stat.
easier than predicting tomorrow close.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^dji#chart2:symbol=^dji;range=19281001,20090903;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=1;logscale=on;source=undefined

 

[GladiatorX]

I made a prediction that the teletubies would be on at 9am this morning, on my faviourite channel, CBBC. I was incorrect, however i will keep trying!

 

[dcraig1]

Thanks for the links.Way too many lines on that gannstation chart.If it isn't simple and clean looking,it really is of little value to me,that's the approach i have tried to maintain (at the risk of missing something) Gann is impenatrable to me and i think there are too many lines.But he was legendry and probably a genius and i am neither and never will be.But,if you project a fan from some point,with so many lines it will hit prices... All i know is that my model is very simple.the geometry is simple and the part completion of a fractual gives you an exact price at an exact time.The KEY prices that outline the fractual when calculated in a very simple way,give you exactly the same price. That is what happened with my 998 call. There are other prices that are contained within a large fractual which can form smaller fractuals and they will work in exactly the same way.Today could be an example of that depending on the close and what we get.
When 998 appeared and squared price with time there was a sense of completion.This maybe why we have small range sideways chop and i dont have a clear signal.This morning i said i would have to be vague because i dont have a partly completed fractual to calculate from.I only have projected angles which inevitably will hit prices.Though nowhere near as many as a Gann fan for example.
The projected angles will hit prices then as more angles connect they link prices together to form fractuals,When you know what these fractuals look like you are able to complete them way ahead of the market.Hence,where this fractual completes is the predicted price at a predicted time The maths confirms the price.It almost like watching somthing biological taking form,like an organism.You will not be getting signals every day.There is always an alternative scenario which you may/may not be aware of,This is where you have to be discretionary in your use of it,But in hindsite it will be perfect regardless.

Could you please enlighten us as to what a "fractual" is ?

 

[montmorencyt2w]

Hello Mitsubishi,

Although I am not particularly looking for a new method or system, don't usually trade indices, and although I am sceptical about the general premise of market predictability by mathematics, I have been intrigued enough to keep reading, and I hope that you continue this journal.

Although I think the market may appear to be predictable under certain circumstances and for a limited time, I don't think that it always is, and we can look back to the history of LTCM to see how mathematical geniuses came unstuck eventually. One of the given reasons for their failure was that they only backtested data going back 5 years I believe, and I wonder how far back you have backtested.

Some of what you have described (or the hints you have given) remind me a little of the material from Left Brain Trading, the author of which posts on this forum from time to time. I wondered if you had ever looked at this. It is essentially Fibonacci-related, but not used in quite the same way that most traders use Fibs.

Anyway, I look forward to reading about your progress.

 

[mitsubishi]

Could you please enlighten us as to what a "fractual" is ?

No.Sorry.But think in terms of geometric simplicity.Sorry to be deliberately vague but otherwise bit by bit the details will get dragged out of me....

I am assuming that you know what a fractual is and are asking me to give info on what mine look like.But for anyone who doesn't know what a fractual is.Google Mandelbrot. Think of a caulifower.any piece of which looks the same as the whole,just a smaller version.

 

[mitsubishi]

1007 is indicated today but that is almost a given if you look at overnight futures.I also have 998,which could be the low and 988 also could be the low. 976 indicated but highly unlikely.Using r-10 from yesterdays close,and the price i really want to go short is 1013 i will be an aggressive seller there and will be prepared to average into the trade at 1018prev support. I am expecting lower lows next week.If i get into a trade today i will give entry stops and targets.If 1013 is hit today (or anything above) it would be an 'orphan' price Good luck today guys.And hey....hey... let's be careful out there

 

[mitsubishi]

Hello Mitsubishi,

Although I am not particularly looking for a new method or system, don't usually trade indices, and although I am sceptical about the general premise of market predictability by mathematics, I have been intrigued enough to keep reading, and I hope that you continue this journal.

Although I think the market may appear to be predictable under certain circumstances and for a limited time, I don't think that it always is, and we can look back to the history of LTCM to see how mathematical geniuses came unstuck eventually. One of the given reasons for their failure was that they only backtested data going back 5 years I believe, and I wonder how far back you have backtested.

Some of what you have described (or the hints you have given) remind me a little of the material from Left Brain Trading, the author of which posts on this forum from time to time. I wondered if you had ever looked at this. It is essentially Fibonacci-related, but not used in quite the same way that most traders use Fids.

Anyway, I look forward to reading about your progress.

Welcome mont thanks for the interesting comment.I agree that it is not always predictable,as you say.There are,i think,just 3 reasons why i think this.(because ultimately,and i will keep repeating,it is perfect maths/geometry)

1) The market forms fractuals gradually,several are in various stages of completion and others are only just being 'born' .Some prices will appear as 'orphans'-those that are not connected to a projected angle.Some will remain orphans,some will be the start of a new fractual. Since this process is is ongoing and fluid as each day passes....well i think you see the problem.In hindsite,everything makes perfect sense so you get a feel for what these 'children' (!) may grow up to become.

2) In keeping with what most understand of the market,there are always alternative outcomes BUT.. those outcomes in hindsite were predicted.Think in terms of a major station with trains leaving for different destinations,but of course, they can only travel the tracks that are already laid.

3)The ability (or lack of) of the trader is the ultimate decider as to what use the tool is.

The market can NEVER always be predicted.If you check through what i have said so far,i have not claimed that.Some posters here appear to believe i did say that.
I am still learning and noticing the subtleties of what i have.

I know nothing about left brain trading.I have always found it very difficult to follow others' ideas,though if it appears interesting i will persist (Gann no chance at all!).If it is simple,like R-10 i am drawn to simplicity,though i noticed R-10 at work before reading about it.I also love gap plays-simple,logical,likley,repeatable,clearly observable with enough players to make it happen.Fibs are another example.Now,i'm only interested in the ratios of major swings,but since they are ever present,i may backtest them against my model and see if it adds to the general picture.I am a strong believer in fib TIMEZONES particularly intraday.(i will talk more of this later and thankfully i will be able to post charts to show my technique)

Mont, i confess that my backtesting would disappoint the academics regarding the size.I can print my template off the computor,but i have to join a4 sheets together and mark all else by hand.This is very laborious,but i will do more backtesting and report the results.The one thing i can assure you all here is,i will tell it like it is,be honest and straight.It would be unfair to members here to attempt to mislead in order to substantiate my claims. In fair exchange,i hope you will forgive me for sometimes being vague about the exact details of my model.But as may be (hopefully) becoming clear,is that those who have knowledge of this kind of stuff,will be able to read between the lines,grasp the clues and find enough useful stuff to enhance their own investigations.That is the main reason for the journal.But i am also calling live trades in a conventional way using normal ta and calling out some prices(which should only be for entertainment purposes as i said in my op). Good trading to you today.
I have no food in the house (the wife is a way!) so i gotta go shopping now and have left an order to sell 1013- the only trade i am interested in today.