Now this would have been a good signal to follow: highly oversold on 1-minute chart yet within an up trend on the 15-minute chart.
I don't know if the idea makes sense, but the concept is clear. It's quite hard to test, but I'll see in the future what happens in such situations. I'll be compulsively doing this stuff in the future. Hopefully I will not change this system because it's as complicated as it should get. No more rules and requirements should be added.
Like in all other areas of my life, in trading I've felt I was special, and that I could pick the exact turning points. My confidence, my arrogance allowed the markets to deceive me for 12 years, while I was in denial.
The pretty good thing about this method is that if you lose 250 today and cannot trade anymore, tomorrow you'll be more careful in picking your trade. It's unlikely that you'll go on losing 250 dollars every day. With the other method I won almost every time, and when I lost one loss was higher than all previous gains put together. This deceives you into thinking you're good.
Anyway, the day is over and today I followed my system. I have not been a gambler. I think it's the first time in my life that I do this consciously, with the knowledge of having followed a method in every rule and having known what my biggest loss could exactly be.
I am down 140 dollars and I don't know whether I should go to bed and wake up tomorrow to see if my trades went well or not. Either way, I won't have lost 250, so I'll be able to trade again tomorrow. Oh, and also if I did, that loss would count as yesterday's. But I didn't anyway.
Certainly I am not planning on tricking anyone nor me in case this trade turns out to be a loss, and I'll report it tomorrow morning. Ever since I kept this journal I have been even more truthful to myself because I had to be truthful to others. The journal has forced me to see the truth, because I was writing it down for others. It forced me to record the truth, and I was then able to go back and read what I was thinking and what I was doing, for example my gambling just a few days ago: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/72598-my-journal-80.html#post984072
It forced me to be a better trader because I wanted to show a better trader to the readers, and since I can't lie, I had to become one. I was getting messages from people feeling sorry for me, and I felt bad for them. I was surprised that people could care about me, about my losses, even more than I did. I tried to become a better trader for them, more than for myself, because I didn't want them to feel sad for my situation.
Now my position is 4 ticks away from the stoploss. I wonder if i'll stay up long enough to see price reverse and go up, or long enough to see my stoploss be triggered.
Today nothing went wrong because in all cases I followed my plan and didn't exceed the predetermined losses. It was a very good day in these terms.
But let's remember what Elder said, and what I know to be true: it's easy for an alcoholic to go without drinking for the first few days. I know because I stopped discretionary trading altogether and didn't make any such trades for a whole month, then I started again, uncontrollably, on the very day I was celebrating a month.
In two minutes more futures will open. This will most likely affect my future as well. So my stop will either go off, or prices will go the other way. Certainly they will not stay still within a range of 10 ticks.
Now i am only losing 90 dollars. At the same time, I am losing precious hours of sleep, which tomorrow could cause me to be tired and lose money. But if I go to sleep while the trade is open, I might wake up with nightmares, so I might as well stay up a little bit longer. But if I was really rational, I'd just close the trade. And then I wouldn't have talked to my dad up to now, only to get more depressed.
Ok. I have a feeling that I might get a lot of these 20 ticks trades right, and that I might teach some people to trade in the process of teaching myself not to gamble. Indeed. Because I do know enough about the markets to predict their direction with enough precision to make money, provided that I go with the trend. There you go again: since the trade has started to go well, all my depression is gone, and i am starting to get delusional again. Losing -2.50 now.