# More trades means more risks ?

#### Glenn

##### Experienced member
1,040 118
Each time you take a new trade, you take on a completely new risk.
i.e. More trades = More Risks (and higher trading costs).

On the other hand the longer you stay in the market the more likely something will go wrong. So the longer you stay in, the greater the risk.

Question is, which do other people think is the greater risk ?

Glenn

#### Grey1

##### Senior member
2,186 178
Quote " More trades means more risks ? "

Not a correct statement.

It means more commission though

#### donaldduke

##### Experienced member
1,665 257
If you have a positive expectancy system the more trades you
make the more likely you are to make money.

If you have a system that is right 75% of the time and has
win/loss ratio of 1:1, after 10 trades you could still be sitting on a
loss but after 100 trades the chances of still being down
are very very remote.

#### donaldduke

##### Experienced member
1,665 257
Quote: "It means more commission though"

Not if you SB!!

#### Glenn

##### Experienced member
1,040 118
Grey1 said:
Quote " More trades means more risks ? "

Not a correct statement.

It means more commission though

Hi Grey1
I'd be interested to know why you think it's not a correct statement.
Daresay others would too.
Glenn

#### Newtron Bomb

##### Experienced member
1,602 87
I see a defined risk per trade

If you only risk "x%" per trade then it is defined each time on each trade.
however, I see your thinking with two trades being equal to 2 x "x%" risk but your risk per trade should remain the same and therefore no increase in risk just the number of times you take the risk of "x%"

Hope that was clear
Newtron Bomb

#### ChartMan

##### Legendary member
5,580 46
more trades leads on to overtrading whichleads on to chasing losses = recipe for disaster. Each trader will (hopefully) find their own balance of trades that works for them and is within their risk profile.

#### Grey1

##### Senior member
2,186 178
Glen,

Systems with positive expectancy are defined by the equation below.. The number of trade does not make the system less expectant..

Expectancy is defined by a simple formula = ( Average win* probability of win - Average loss* probabilty of loss )

If this value > 1 then we have a Pos expectancy system other wise we have a negative expectancy system

So if you had a coin system which would pay even amount then

Expectancy would be = (1*1/2 -1*/1/2 ) = 0

How ever if you had a Coin system which would pay a little more than even if you won ' then the MORE you trade the system the more you win ,,

Regards

#### BBB

##### Experienced member
1,071 3
Question: If it's 50% likely to rain this Saturday, and 50% likely to rain on Sunday, what is the chance of it raining this weekend?

Does this help?

#### Grey1

##### Senior member
2,186 178
A quiz for our Traders...

If I had a system with negative expectancy would an excellent money managment system make me a winner ?

#### BBB

##### Experienced member
1,071 3
Oooooooooooooohhhhhhhhh there's a poser!

Tempted to say yes, but only if the trade management was first rate as well! Sorry if that sounds like I'm sitting on the wall

#### Grey1

##### Senior member
2,186 178
BBB,

punters in Casino's have negative expectancy ?? Doyou think some kind of a money managment system will make us a winner in VEGAS ,

If the answer is yes then I will pay for the ticket .. LAS VEGAS we are cominnnnnnnnnggggggggg..

What do you think ?

#### Quercus

##### Well-known member
399 7
Sticking my neck out here!
If we're talking about an infinite number of outcomes of the system a negative expectancy system must surely come out on the losing side. This has to do with the product of average losers and %losses being greater than the product of average winners and % wins.
Excellent money management may keep you playing longer and enjoying the free food and drink!
Cheers
Quercus

#### BBB

##### Experienced member
1,071 3
Ouch! You got me!

If I still say the answer is yes, will you still pay for the ticket ? lol

#### Grey1

##### Senior member
2,186 178
Qurecus,

Spot on.. No amount of Money managment can save traders who trade systems with negative expectancy..

SO lets get on with the VWAP strategy

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